Building a Potentially Historic Final 2024 NFL Draft Top 100 Predictive Big Board
Either the best or worst top 100 big board ever made
This is my final big board for the 2024 NFL Draft cycle. I can’t believe we’re here. Time really has flown by. This is a predictive top 100 big board that will be submitted for grading to competitions. This board mirrors how I believe the NFL and its teams will draft. Using rumors and information from friends and colleagues, I spent several long nights putting together this final board.
I included 120 total players on this ranking because there were some additional players that I wanted to mention so I could be mad at myself later when they inevitably go in the top 100 instead of the players I pick. The top 120 is broken down into 11 tiers. Prospects are interchangeable within their own tiers.
If you’re looking for a larger list with all of my NFL Draft profiles, check out my personal top 300 big board from earlier this month.
Before we get into the top 120, let me break down my methodology for this board. I looked back at the past three drafts for every position to determine the average number of players selected per position in the top 100 over a nice sample size. I looked at the past five drafts for running backs, edge rushers, and interior defensive linemen.
You can see the breakdown of those averages at the bottom of this article, including how my 2024 projected picks stacked up to those marks. I tried my best to keep them aligned.
Additionally, I surveyed resources from The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, and Wide Left’s Arif Hasan. I charted how my top 100 compares to Brugler’s and Jeremiah’s boards and the annual Consensus Board that Hasan puts together. I highly suggest checking it out if you get the chance.
Jeremiah has averaged 82.8 correct top 100 selections per year over the past five years with scores of 85, 84, 83, 83, and 79. Brugler averaged 80.2 correct selections with scores of 81, 79, and 75 from 2019-21 and 84 and 82 over the past two cycles. For reference, the highest average over the past five years is 85.4.
I also looked into what positions Brugler over or under-projects most often (he’s not designing rankings for competitions the way I am so this might be a faulty approach). I didn’t gain too much info here since I only used a two-year sample size, but Brugler has assigned nine top 100 grades to cornerbacks over the past two years who didn’t go in the top 100 (I proceed to completely ignore this information and pick too many cornerbacks as well).
Hasan’s Consensus Board was assembled by gathering 91 big boards this year, which I’d wager is the largest sample size he’s ever pulled to create the board. So, unlike Brugler and Jeremiah, Hasan is putting together a board that captures views from across the draft space while not inserting his personal bias/evaluations.
Hasan was kind enough to share with me how the Consensus Board performed at predicting top 100 selections. The board hit on 83.75 players per draft over the past eight years with a peak of 89 in 2017 followed by a low of 80 in 2018. The board’s average over the past five years is 84.
So what was the point? Well, I found that on average (deservingly) publicly applauded plugged-in members of the media in the full-time draft space regularly miss on 17 to 20 top 100 projections per year (gulp). Even in their best years, they are roughly 15 picks away.
Todd McShay, who has scored an 86 in three straight years, and Lance Zierlein, who hit on 85 in 2020 and 2023 and 86 in 2021, have fared better, but there’s still nearly half a round’s worth of prospects that fall through the cracks. With that in mind, I tried to force myself to project some off-the-wall picks on this board.
My predictive top 100 features 11 unique players Jeremiah’s doesn’t. There are also 13 players who don’t appear on Brugler’s top 100 and 12 who don’t appear on Hasan’s Consensus Board. Those numbers are a good starting point but are sadly too low for this to have a shot at being a historically good top 100 big board.
I wish I had another day (or maybe more backbone) to figure out a few more worthy risky picks. Next year I’ll start this process sooner so I’m not typing these lines at 11:30 p.m. as the deadline quickly approaches.
For those interested, there are three players I selected who didn’t appear on any of Brugler’s, Hasan’s, or Jeremiah’s boards. They are Caelen Carson (this one is starting to scare me), Jacob Cowing, and Marist Liufau. Wow, it doesn’t feel great to be betting my self-esteem for the next year on that group, but I want to go to bed.
Oh, and this counts as Wednesday’s article. I just need to publish it by midnight on Tuesday to make sure I meet the contest deadline.
Tier 11: Someone Might Fall in Love with Them (8)
120. Cam Hart, CB Notre Dame
119. Hunter Nourzad, C Penn State (Scouting Report)
118. Javon Baker, WR UCF (Scouting Report)
117. Mason McCormick, G South Dakota State (Scouting Report)
116. Renardo Green, CB Florida State (Scouting Report)
115. Jalyx Hunt, Edge Houston Christian (Scouting Report)
114. D.J. James, CB Auburn (Scouting Report)
113. Braelon Allen, RB Wisconsin (Scouting Report)
Tier 10: I Can’t Believe I Let Them Fall (12)
112. Edefuan Ulofoshio, LB Washington
111. DeWayne Carter, IDL Duke (Scouting Report)
110. Christian Jones, OT Texas (Scouting Report)
109. Cedric Gray, LB North Carolina (Scouting Report)
108. Gabe Hall, IDL Baylor (Scouting Report)
107. Austin Booker, Edge Kansas (Scouting Report)
106. Jared Wiley, TE TCU
105. T'Vondre Sweat, IDL Texas (Scouting Report)
104. Kamren Kinchens, S Miami (Scouring Report)
103. Jonah Elliss, Edge Utah (Scouting Report)
102. Malik Washington, WR Virginia (Scouring Report)
101. Devontez Walker, WR North Carolina (Scouting Report)
Tier 9: The Dart Throws (15)
100. Marist Liufau, LB Notre Dame (Scouting Report)
99. Jacob Cowing, WR Arizona (Scouting Report)
98. Ray Davis, RB Kentucky
97. Tykee Smith, S Georgia (Scouring Report)
96. Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, C Georgia (Scouting Report)
95. Matt Goncalves, OT/G Pittsburgh (Scouting Report)
94. Cade Stover, TE Ohio State (Scouting Report)
93. Mohamed Karama, Edge Colorado State
92. Caelen Carson, CB Wake Forest (Scouting Report)
91. Mekhi Wingo, IDL LSU (Scouting Report)
90. Calen Bullock, S USC (Scouting Report)
89. Bralen Trice, Edge Washington (Scouting Report)
88. Kris Abrams-Draine, CB/NB Missouri (Scouting Report)
87. Ruke Orhorhoro, IDL Clemson (Scouting Report)
86. Jalen McMillan, WR Washington (Scouting Report)
Tier 8: Filling out the Third Round (13)
85. MarShawn Lloyd, RB USC (Scouting Report)
84. Trevin Wallace, LB Kentucky (Scouting Report)
83. Kiran Amegadjie, OT/G Yale (Scouting Report)
82. Brandon Coleman, G TCU (Scouting Report)
81. Blake Corum, RB Michigan (Scouting Report)
80. Brandon Dorlus, IDL Oregon (Scouting Report)
79. Jaylen Wright, RB Tennessee (Scouting Report)
78. Cole Bishop, S Utah (Scouring Report)
77. Isaiah Adams, G Illinois (Scouting Report)
76. Malachi Corley, WR Western Kentucky (Scouting Report)
75. Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE Texas (Scouting Report)
74. Payton Wilson, LB North Carolina State (Scouting Report)
73. Ben Sinnott, TE Kansas State (Scouting Report)
Tier 7: Top of the Third Round (14)
72. Spencer Rattler, QB South Carolina (Scouting Report)
71. Kamari Lassiter, CB Georgia (Scouting Report)
70. Adisa Isaac, Edge Penn State (Scouting Report)
69. Javon Bullard, S Georgia (Scouting Report)
68. Theo Johnson, TE Penn State (Scouring Report)
67. T.J. Tampa, CB Iowa State (Scouting Report)
66. Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU (Scouting Report)
65. Roger Rosengarten, OT Washington (Scouting Report)
64. Trey Benson, RB Florida State (Scouting Report)
63. Dominick Puni, G Kansas (Scouting Report)
62. Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB/NB Missouri (Scouring Report)
61. Jaden Hicks, S Washington State (Scouting Report)
60. Maason Smith, IDL LSU (Scouting Report)
59. Max Melton, CB/NB Rutgers (Scouting Report)
Tier 6: Filling out the Second Round (11)
58. Ja'Lynn Polk, WR Washington (Scouting Report)
57. Troy Franklin, WR Oregon (Scouting Report)
56. Andru Phillips, CB/NB Kentucky (Scouting Report)
55. Tyler Nubin, S Minnesota (Scouting Report)
54. Blake Fisher, OT Notre Dame (Scouting Report)
53. Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas (Scouting Report)
52. Roman Wilson, WR Michigan (Scouting Report)
51. Keon Coleman, WR Florida State (Scouting Report)
50. Edgerrin Cooper, LB Texas A&M (Scouting Report)
49. Cooper Beebe, G Kansas State (Scouting Report)
48. Xavier Legette, WR South Carolina (Scouting Report)
Tier 5: Hot Top 50 Candidates (14)
47. Junior Colson, LB Michigan (Scouting Report)
46. Braden Fiske, IDL Florida State (Scouting Report)
45. Christian Haynes, G UConn (Scouting Report)
44. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C Oregon (Scouring Report)
43. Zach Frazier, C West Virginia (Scouting Report)
42. Bo Nix, QB Oregon (Scouting Report)
41. Mike Sainristil, NB/CB Michigan (Scouting Report)
40. Patrick Paul, OT Houston (Scouting Report)
39. Ricky Pearsall, WR Florida (Scouting Report)
38. Chris Braswell, Edge Alabama (Scouting Report)
37. Marshawn Kneeland, Edge Western Michigan (Scouting Report)
36. Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia (Scouting Report)
35. Michael Hall Jr., IDL Ohio State (Scouting Report)
34. Kris Jenkins, IDL Michigan (Scouting Report)
Tier 4: Filling out the First Round (8)
33. Jordan Morgan, OT/G Arizona (Scouting Report)
32. Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington (Scouting Report)
31. Jer'Zhan Newton, IDL Illinois (Scouting Report)
30. Darius Robinson, Edge Missouri (Scouting Report)
29. Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma (Scouting Report)
28. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama (Scouting Report)
27. Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas (Scouting Report)
26. Xavier Worthy, WR Texas (Scouting Report)
Tier 3: Remaining Consensus First Rounders (10)
25. Chop Robinson, Edge Penn State (Scouting Report)
24. Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson (Scouting Report)
23. Cooper DeJean, CB/DB Iowa (Scouting Report)
22. Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU (Scouting Report)
21. Laiatu Latu, Edge UCLA (Scouting Report)
20. Jared Verse, Edge Florida State (Scouting Report)
19. Dallas Turner, Edge Alabama (Scouting Report)
18. Amarius Mims, OT Georgia (Scouting Report)
17. Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama (Scouting Report)
16. Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo (Scouting Report)
Tier 2: Fortify the Trenches (6)
15. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT Penn State (Scouting Report)
14. Graham Barton, G/C Duke (Scouting Report)
13. Troy Fautanu, OT/G Washington (Scouting Report)
12. J.C. Latham, OT/G Alabama (Scouting Report)
11. Taliese Fuaga, OT/G Oregon State (Scouting Report)
10. Byron Murphy II, IDL Texas (Scouting Report)
Tier 1: The Offensive Blitz (9)
9. Brock Bowers, TE Georgia (Scouting Report)
8. J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan (Scouting Report)
7. Drake Maye, QB North Carolina (Scouting Report)
6. Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame (Scouting Report)
5. Rome Odunze, WR Washington (Scouting Report)
4. Jayden Daniels, QB LSU (Scouting Report)
3. Malik Nabers, WR LSU (Scouting Report)
2. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State (Scouting Report)
1. Caleb Williams, QB USC (Scouting Report)
Quarterbacks
· 5 QBs in the top 100 in 2023
· 4 QBs in the top 100 in 2022
· 8 QBs in the top 100 in 2021
Three-year average: 5.6
My 2024 Top 100: 7
Wide Receivers
· 14 WRs in the top 100 in 2023
· 16 WRs in the top 100 in 2022
· 15 WRs in the top 100 in 2021
Three-year average: 15
My 2024 Top 100: 16
Tight Ends
· 8 TEs in the top 100 in 2023
· 3 TEs in the top 100 in 2022
· 5 TEs in the top 100 in 2021
Three-year average: 5.3
My 2024 Top 100: 5
Running Backs
· 7 RBs in the top 100 in 2023
· 6 RBs in the top 100 in 2022
· 4 RBs in the top 100 in 2021
· 10 RBs in the top 100 in 2020
· 6 RBs in the top 100 in 2019
Five-year average: 6.6
My 2024 Top 100: 6
Offensive Tackles
· 6 OTs in the top 100 in 2023 (counting Tyler Steen)
· 8 OTs in the top 100 in 2022 (counting Tyler Smith)
· 12 OTs in the top 100 in 2021
Three-year average: 8.6
My 2024 Top 100: 13 (Counting Fautanu but not Goncalves)
Interior Offensive Linemen
· 9 IOLs in the top 100 in 2023
· 10 IOLs in the top 100 in 2022
· 11 IOLs in the top 100 in 2021
Three-year average: 10
My 2024 Top 100: 10 (Counting Goncalves but not Fautanu)
Interior Defensive Linemen
· 10 IDLs in the top 100 in 2023
· 6 IDLs in the top 100 in 2022
· 5 IDLs in the top 100 in 2021
· 9 IDLs in the top 100 in 2020
· 9 IDLs in the top 100 in 2019
Five-year average: 7.8
My 2024 Top 100: 9
Edge Rushers
· 16 Edges in the top 100 in 2023
· 17 Edges in the top 100 in 2022
· 15 Edges in the top 100 in 2021
· 10 Edges in the top 100 in 2020
· 13 Edges in the top 100 in 2019
Five-year average: 14.2
My 2024 Top 100: 10
Linebackers
· 6 LBs in the top 100 in 2023
· 8 LBs in the top 100 in 2022
· 7 LBs in the top 100 in 2021
Three-year average: 7
My 2024 Top 100: 5
Cornerbacks
· 11 CBs in the top 100 in 2023
· 12 CBs in the top 100 in 2022
· 13 CBs in the top 100 in 2021
Three-year average: 12
My 2024 Top 100: 13 (yikes)
Safeties
· 6 SAF in the top 100 in 2023
· 9 SAF in the top 100 in 2022
· 5 SAF in the top 100 in 2021
Three-year average: 6.6
My 2024 Top 100: 6