Predicting Surprise 2025 NFL Draft First Round Selections
Who will be the biggest surprises on night one of the draft?
The NFL Draft is an unpredictable guessing game for both fans and the team personnel getting paid anywhere from tens of thousands to millions of dollars per year to keep billion dollar sports franchises competitive. The 2025 NFL Draft could become extra volatile because of the loaded second tier of prospects trailing a very limited blue chip tier.
Today we’ll explore a handful of projected second or third round prospects who could sneak into the first round. Most of these players possess some elite traits that give them top 32 ceilings in the class. I also included one or two high-floor defenders who offer values as dependable contributors.
You can view my final top 400 big board for the 2025 NFL Draft here.
Before we begin, I didn’t include Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, Donovan Jackson, or Carson Schwesinger in this process. There’s enough buzz around them being potential first rounders that I didn’t view them as being surprising enough to list.
Surprise First Round Picks
Jaylin Noel, WR Iowa State
Big Board Rank: 36
Noel projects as a slot-only receiver at 5'10 1/4", 194 lbs. but could be this year’s Ricky Pearsall (not a player comp). Noel is a loose and fluid route runner with field-stretching speed. His agile and nimble footwork makes him one of the shiftiest route runners and top separators in the class. Noel’s leverage manipulation, route salesmanship, and athletic suggest he could be a high-volume receiver.
Despite his limited size, Noel finishes some impressive contested catches through contact and over defenders.
Elijah Arroyo, TE Miami
Big Board Rank: 43
Dalton Kincaid went in the first round a few years ago. Arroyo is taller, heavier, longer, faster, twitchier, and a more competitive blocker than Kincaid. Arroyo is an elite speedster with unique lower body twitch to leave linebackers and some nickels in the dust. He’s a vertical threat but has the athletic profile to also stretch defenses horizontally.
Arroyo isn’t an impactful in-line presence, but he puts in the effort and has enough physical traits to develop in that area.
J.T. Tuimoloau, Edge Ohio State
Big Board Rank: 51
The ceiling for Tuimoloau might be six sacks a year with the occasional 8.5-sack campaign, but you know exactly what you’re getting each week. His 6' 4 1/4", 265 lb. frame offers good thickness, and his arm length and wingspan far surpass required thresholds. Tuimoloau is a high motor defender with heavy hands to set the edge or rush through the offensive lineman’s frame.
Tuimoloau’s size and work at the point of attack against the run give him a reasonable floor. His ceiling won’t blow you away, but he was clearly the most polished and impactful pass rusher on Ohio State’s defense in 2024. His spin move is one of the best in the class.
Charles Grant, OL William & Mary
Big Board Rank: 58
Grant is a 6' 4 7/8", 311 lb. left tackle with 34 3/4" arms and elite movement skills. He entered the process projecting as a guard for a wide zone scheme, but his physical development could lead to a team experimenting with him at tackle. There isn’t a block he can’t make in the run game.
Grant needs to refine his kick step and hand usage to stick outside in the league but could immediately be an offensive line’s top athlete. He was a mauler in college but obviously faces a significant jump in competition. He makes blocks no one else in this class can.
Oluwafemi Oladejo, Edge UCLA
Big Board Rank: 61
Oladejo entered the 2024 season as an off-ball linebacker and ended it as a projected top 100 selection at 3-4 outside linebacker. He’s a sleek athlete with an impressive wingspan and crazy motor. Oladejo’s pass rush plan is still developing, but he showed impressive growth from September to the Senior Bowl in February. He’s still a ball of clay, but the emerging final product gets your imagination going.
Oladejo’s background as an off-ball linebacker shows up in his proficient run defense. He uses heavy hands to stack blocks and set the edge and frequently shoots the B and C-gaps for tackles in the backfield. His run defense gives him a safe floor.
Jacob Parrish, CB Kansas State
Big Board Rank: 70
Parrish is undersized for an outside corner at just 5'9 3/4" with 30 7/8" arms, but he’s densely built and ran a 4.35 40-time. He’s a young prospect, elite athlete, and one of the most aggressive press-man corners in the class. Parrish still needs to develop his instincts in zone, but his jams, quick trigger, and run support make him a unique prospect in this class.
Tyleik Williams, NT Ohio State
Big Board Rank: 73
Williams is the least versatile prospect in the top 100. He plays tall with stiff hips that prevent any level of bend or dip, but good luck moving him. Williams is a brick wall who lacks the athleticism to provide consistent pressure in the passing game. His heavy hands generate the knockback to reset the line of scrimmage in the run game, and he easily stacks and sheds solo blocks.
Williams is a two-down nose tackle with game-wreaking potential against the run.
Darien Porter, CB Iowa State
Big Board Rank: 76
Porter began his college career as a wide receiver before gradually developing into a cornerback over the past three years. The former record-setting high school track star still has a long way to go, but it’s hard to ignore his rare athletic profile and developing instincts in zone coverage. Porter’s technique and recognition in man coverage need work, but he’s already an impactful option in zone.
Porter is long-legged, so he’s inconsistent mirroring receivers in man coverage. However, his patient footwork helps him mirror releases and gear down to stay in phase at the top of the stem. His 6'2 7/8", 195 lb. frame with 33 1/8" arms and 4.3 40-yard dash speed makes him excellent at closing and contesting at the catch point.
Joshua Farmer, IDL Florida State
Big Board Rank: 77
Farmer is an explosive 3-tech with 35" arms and unique bend that only trails Mason Graham and Omarr Norman-Lott among the top defensive tackles in the class. Farmer needs to maximize his length to stack and shed blocks at a higher level in the run game, but he possesses the power, sudden and violent movement skills, and pass rush plan to generate five to eight sacks per year.