NFL Top 200 Players of 2021 Pt. 7
Players No. 80 through 61
The NFL Top 200 predicts the best players for the 2021 NFL season using past success, projections for development and regression, injuries, and supporting casts. We get one step closer to the top 20 today by looking at Nos. 80 to 61, but make sure to check out the past editions and catch up on the rankings.
There’s no way to project exactly how the NFL season could play out, but these rankings attempt to identify players primed for breakout campaigns or in situations where they might take a step back. You’ll notice the concepts of rebound years and regression appear several times.
We have no scientific method to compare players that line up at different positions, so this list is highly subjective. I’ve included the positional ranking of each player in parentheses to counteract this cross-positional subjectivity and give readers a better understanding of how I believe players stack up against their competition.
Please direct any comments or concerns to @Sam_Teets33 on Twitter.
(Statistics come from ESPN, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, and Pro Football Reference)
*Indicates rookie
Injuries Alter Top 200
80. Michael Thomas, WR (12) New Orleans Saints
Previous Rank: 33
Thomas, much to the frustration of his head coach and fantasy owners, waited until June to have surgery to repair ligaments in his ankle. Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the recommended recovery time is four months.
Ahead of the roster cut deadline, New Orleans placed Thomas on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, guaranteeing he’ll miss at least the team’s first five games.
Thomas battled injuries throughout last season, some of which resulted in his recent surgery. One year after winning the Offensive Player of the Year award, Thomas only caught 40 passes for 438 yards in his seven appearances. He didn’t score a touchdown during the regular season.
Drew Brees’ sudden decline contributed to Thomas and New Orleans’ passing game crumbling last year, but the 28-year-old is over 18 months removed from his last All-Pro season. Thomas produced two 100-yard games in 2020, showing he’s still capable of dominating performances when healthy.
Evaluating Thomas for the top 200 proved challenging. On one hand, he’s clearly a top-five wide receiver when healthy. On the other hand, injuries and missing time factor into the equation. This article’s primary purpose is to drive conversation by projecting the best players for 2021. Thomas takes a significant hit because his availability is up in the air.
79. Stephon Gilmore, CB (8) New England Patriots
Previous Rank: 47
Last year, Gilmore landed on injured reserve 11 games into a battered season. The 2019 Defensive Player of the Year looked off from the start. His passer rating allowed nearly doubled from 2019 to 2020 as the 30-year-old’s play spiraled out of control in a lost season for New England.
From 2016 through 2019, Gilmore intercepted 15 passes and swatted away 61 more. He earned back-to-back First-Team All-Pro bids from the Associated Press and PFF in 2018 and 2019. Presumably some of that is still locked away inside the South Carolina product. The Patriots clearly believe that, otherwise they would’ve traded him in the offseason.
Gilmore put on a show during his two-year peak in New England, allowing a completion percentage below 50.0% and a passer rating in the fifties. The Patriots desperately need that level of production in 2021.
Unfortunately, New England placed Gilmore on the PUP list ahead of the roster cut deadline.
78. Darious Williams, CB (7) Los Angeles Rams
Previous Rank: 68
The Rams had an embarrassment of riches on defense last year. Williams intercepted four passes and broke up 14 more during his first year as a full-time starter. The 28-year-old former undrafted free agent teams with Jalen Ramsey to form a lockdown cornerback duo.
Williams played 221 defensive snaps in 2019. He made the most of those limited opportunities, intercepting two passes and earning a 78.9 grade from PFF. That grade improved slightly this past season, sliding to an 80.0, which ranked sixth among all cornerbacks with at least 300 snaps. For reference, James Bradberry and Ramsey had 79.8s.
Williams allowed a completion percentage in the low fifties this past year and a passer rating in the low sixties. The Rams only owe him $4.766 million for this coming season.
77. Quinnen Williams, IDL (7) New York Jets
Previous Rank: 91
Williams flashed elite potential last season, proving he was worth the third overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Interior defensive linemen don’t hold great positional value, especially that high in the draft. However, Williams possesses the potential to wreak more havoc than most edge rushers. We might even see him ascend into stardom this season.
Williams only played in 13 games last year, but he tallied seven sacks, 55 tackles, and double-digit tackles for loss. The Alabama product went on a tear before finishing the season on injured reserve, racking up four sacks and 24 tackles in his last five appearances.
According to Pro Football Reference, Williams played 512 defensive snaps as a rookie and 587 in his second season. Despite adding fewer than 100 snaps, Williams came close to doubling his production in every category. He also improved on his 67.4 defensive grade from PFF, raising it to 81.4. That mark ranked eleventh among interior defensive linemen (minimum 300 snaps).
New York fans can’t wait to see Williams in action this fall. The rising star is only 23 years old, meaning there’s still plenty of time for him to improve. Imagine how good he’ll look a few years from now.
76. Mike Evans, WR (11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Previous Rank: 92
Tampa Bay selected Evans with the seventh pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, and he hasn’t disappointed. The Texas A&M product has seven consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards, and he’s averaging 78.0 yards per game for his career. Evans earned PFF All-Pro selections in 2016 and 2019 and was an Associated Press All-Pro in 2016.
Evans remained a constant focal point in Tampa Bay’s offense over the years, surviving the Mike Glennon/Josh McCown, Jameis Winston, and Ryan Fitzpatrick eras along with two head coach firings. Through seven seasons, he has 532 receptions, 8,266 yards, and 61 touchdowns. Nearly half of those touchdowns came in the past three years.
Evans only has two seasons with PFF grades below 83.0, one of which came last year. Before 2020, Evans ranked inside PFF’s 16 highest-graded wide receivers (minimum ten targets) for six straight years. He also finished inside the top ten three times and the top five twice.
Playing alongside Tom Brady for the second year in a row should keep Evans hovering around the league’s top ten mark for wide receivers.
75. Cameron Jordan, EDGE (8) New Orleans Saints
Previous Rank: 76
Jordan made his sixth Pro Bowl last season, but it wasn’t a pretty campaign for the 32-year-old. Jordan, who hasn’t missed a game during his career, finished 2020 with 7.5 sacks and 51 tackles. It was the third time he finished a season with 7.5 sacks, but the first time he failed to hit double digits since 2016.
It’s possible Jordan recovers this year and posts an elite performance, but he’s around the age when decline becomes a factor. Last season, the Cal product had by far his fewest pressures in recent history. However, Jordan remained among PFF’s ten highest-graded edge rushers for the fifth straight year.
This year is going to be very strange for New Orleans’ defensive line. The NFL already suspended David Onyemata for six games, Marcus Davenport is in a make-or-break year, and Payton Turner somehow fits the picture. Keep in mind, the defense lost Trey Hendrickson and Sheldon Rankins in free agency.
New Orleans needs a vintage run from Jordan. Anything less could lead to the defensive front crumbling.
74. Keenan Allen, WR (10) Los Angeles Chargers
Previous Rank: 94
You won’t find a bust of Allen in Canton someday, but he’s one of the league’s most reliable wide receivers. Since rebounding from a season-ending injury in 2016, Allen has 403 receptions, 4,780 yards, and 26 touchdowns. He’s averaged over 70 yards per game in each of those seasons and has five straight years with a PFF grade over 80.0.
Allen played under 900 snaps in 2020, which led to him barely missing the 1,000-yard threshold for the first time since 2016. The 29-year-old isn’t an explosive vertical threat, but he operates with such clean route running and extreme efficiency that defenses alter their entire game plans to slow him down.
PFF gave Allen Second-Team All-Pro honors in 2017 and 2018 before Philip Rivers suffered his sudden 2019 collapse. A full offseason of working with Justin Herbert should help Allen get back to where he was during the final prime years of Rivers’ career.
73. John Johnson III, S (9) Cleveland Browns
Previous Rank: 101
An overload of top safety talent in the NFL kept Johnson from earning All-Pro honors from the Associated Press during his first four seasons. That could change in 2021 as the 25-year-old safety joins a deep Cleveland secondary. The Browns threw a ton of assets at safety and cornerback recently, but Johnson is by far their best return.
Through 54 career games, Johnson has eight interceptions, 32 passes defensed, and 350 tackles. He was a PFF Second-Team All-Pro this past season when he finished third among safeties in defensive grading with an 85.6 (minimum 300 snaps). Johnson also posted top-11 grades in 2017 and 2018, albeit on far fewer snaps than this past year.
Johnson got buried in a deep secondary in 2020. That won’t happen in Cleveland. Johnson should finally get the respect he deserves as the Browns continue building their title contender.
72. Saquon Barkley, RB (6) New York Giants
Previous Rank: 85
Barkley is entering his fourth season in the NFL, but the Penn St. product is still only 24 years old. The former second overall pick had a rough start to the 2020 season, getting buried by Pittsburgh’s defense before tearing his ACL in Week 2 against the Chicago Bears. Giants fans can only hope he makes a full recovery in time for the new season.
Three years ago, Barkley was one of the hottest commodities in the NFL. He ran for 1,307 yards and 11 touchdowns on only 261 attempts while snagging 91 catches for 721 yards and four more scores. Barkley led the league that year with 2,028 yards from scrimmage and was a PFF First-Team All-Pro. The Associated Press snubbed him entirely.
Unfortunately, Barkley missed three games in 2019 and never got the same volume of touches he had as a rookie. Volume is the key with Barkley. He’s easily an All-Pro candidate If he stays healthy enough to get over 300 touches during the year. That’s something Barkley only managed to accomplish once in his first three seasons.
71. Grady Jarrett, IDL (6) Atlanta Falcons
Previous Rank: 71
Jarrett always hovers on the bubble between normal Pro Bowler and superstar. The 28-year-old defensive tackle is one of the few standouts on Atlanta’s thin defense. He’s carried the torch for that unit over the past four seasons, amassing roughly 21.5 sacks, 228 tackles, and five forced fumbles during that time.
The Associated Press and PFF pegged Jarrett as a Second-Team All-Pro in 2019, but he’s a PFF darling in general. Jarrett hasn’t received a grade below 80.0 in the past four years, and he had back-to-back grades over 90.0 in 2018 and 2019. That kind of production is difficult to sustain, especially with little to no supporting cast.
Perhaps new defensive coordinator Dean Pees can get Atlanta heading in the right direction.
70. Tre'Davious White, CB (6) Buffalo Bills
Previous Rank: 75
White turned heads from the moment he arrived in Buffalo. The LSU product recorded four interceptions, 18 passes defensed, and a defensive touchdown as a rookie. That performance earned him an 88.5 grade from PFF, which is still a career-high. While White is still a big-time cornerback, he’s had some up and down runs over the past three years.
The Associated Press fell in love with White when he tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions in 2019. He was a First-Team All-Pro that year and a Second-Team All-Pro this past season, despite allowing the highest passer rating when targeted of his career.
The Bills recently invested heavily into their defensive line because White and the secondary carried the defense for the past several seasons. Perhaps White will return to his dominant form if Buffalo’s front can muster a respectable pass rush.
69. Tristan Wirfs, OT (8) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Previous Rank: 72
Mekhi Becton and Michael Onwenu made splashes as rookies, but Wirfs was the gem of a deep offensive line class. The 13th overall pick started all 16 games for Tampa Bay and played slightly north for 1,070 snaps. He was PFF’s Second-Team All-Pro at right tackle but didn’t receive any honors from the Associated Press. That should change in the coming seasons.
Wirfs posted an 81.8 grade, which ranked 12th among tackles with at least 300 snaps. He was exceptional at keeping Tom Brady upright, which led to Tampa Bay cruising past Kansas City in Super Bowl LV. It doesn’t get much better than winning a championship as a rookie.
“A lot of the vets have been telling me don't take it for granted,” Wirfs told Hawk Central. “There’s guys on the team who’ve been in the league nine or ten years and never made the playoffs. I’m just looking forward to getting back to work with my teammates. There’s guys I haven’t seen for a few months so just getting back to work with those guys.”
Wirfs could slingshot into the top 50 if he continues making the most of playing alongside Brady during the 44-year-old’s final seasons.
68. Lamar Jackson, QB (8) Baltimore Ravens
Previous Rank: 84
Jackson earned a spot in the top 100 by winning the NFL regular season MVP award in 2019. He won’t fall out of the top 100 after only one season, but another year like his 2020 campaign could cause the 24-year-old to drop significantly. This past season wasn’t bad by any standard for Jackson, but he found himself trailing an emerging class of elite quarterbacks.
Jackson’s offensive grade fell from 91.1 in 2019 to 81.5 in 2020, which ranked 15th among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. According to PFF, of the quarterbacks on the top 200, only Ryan Tannehill had a higher percentage of turnover-worthy plays than Jackson. Jackson’s adjusted completion percentage was third to last among passers on this list.
Baltimore’s franchise quarterback also took a hit in QBR, dropping from first to seventh, and passer rating, falling from third to 11th.
However, the Louisville product still battled through COVID-19 to throw for 2,757 yards, 26 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He also ran for 1,005 yards and seven additional scores. It’s hard to keep a dynamic threat of that level off the top 100.
67. Adrian Amos, S (8) Green Bay Packers
Previous Rank: 67
The Chicago Bears thought they kept the more important safety when they chose Eddie Jackson over Amos. Boy, were they wrong. Since joining the Packers, Amos has four interceptions, 17 passes defensed, three sacks, and 167 tackles. He’s played over 1,000 defensive snaps in three consecutive years and was a PFF Second-Team All-Pro in 2020.
Amos scored an 89.4 defensive grade last year, which only trailed Jessie Bates among safeties with 300 or more snaps. He also cracked the top ten in 2017 and 2018 and hasn’t received a grade lower than 76.5 since 2016. The Penn St. product sees plenty of snaps in the box, but he’s held up in coverage over the years too.
Quarterbacks haven’t posted a passer rating of 86.0 or higher when targeting Amos over the past three years. The former fifth-round pick also has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed during that stretch.
66. James Bradberry, CB (5) New York Giants
Previous Rank: 96
The Carolina Panthers are kicking themselves after letting Bradberry walk for nothing last offseason. The 28-year-old was a second-round pick in 2016, but he never developed into the lockdown cornerback Carolina desired. That led to Bradberry hitting the open market in 2020 and signing with Big Blue.
Bradberry found his All-Pro self in New York, tallying three interceptions and 18 passes defensed on his way to a Second-Team spot for PFF. Teams bombarded Bradberry with over 70 targets throughout the year, and he rarely relented. The Giants still have him for two more years of a three-year $45.3 million deal, which is a bargain in hindsight.
Last year, Bradberry’s 79.8 PFF grade finished four-tenths behind fifth place among all corners with 300 snaps and tied Jalen Ramsey for the seventh-best mark at the position.
65. Darren Waller, TE (3) Las Vegas Raiders
Previous Rank: 73
Waller was a Second-Team All-Pro for PFF last year, but the Associated Press decided to select slot receiver Cole Beasley rather than pick a second tight end. The egregious error overlooked a glorious season for Waller that featured 107 receptions for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns. All three of those totals finished among the top ten for NFL players.
For reference, Davante Adams and Travis Kelce were the only other players to finish in the top ten for receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Analysts largely regard those two as the best at their respective positions. Yet someone thought it was a good idea to include Beasley over Waller on the ballot.
Las Vegas turned to Waller relentlessly in the passing game. No other Raider finished the year with more than 60 receptions or 900 yards. With Nelson Agholor in New England, Waller’s best supporting pass-catcher is Hunter Renfrow or Henry Ruggs III, the latter of whom didn’t impress in 2020.
64. Ryan Tannehill, QB (7) Tennessee Titans
Previous Rank: 56
Tannehill was a revelation for Tennessee after the team traded for him in 2019. Mike Vrabel’s team expected a quarterback capable of pushing and perhaps surpassing Marcus Mariota. They didn’t expect to receive one of the league’s top passers. While Tennessee’s scheme focuses on the running game, Tannehill still serves as an essential part of the offensive.
The Titans pulled the plug on Mariota early in 2019 and never looked back. Tannehill made ten starts that season and led the NFL with a 117.5 passer rating. Tennessee finished the year 9-7 and went to the Conference Championship after going 2-4 in the season’s first six games.
Tannehill posted a 92.5 PFF offensive grade in 2019, which led all quarterbacks, and followed up with a 90.3 this past season. He and Russell Wilson are the only quarterbacks to earn “blue” grades in the past two campaigns. Tannehill has 55 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a 110.6 passer rating with the Titans.
63. Danielle Hunter, EDGE (7) Minnesota Vikings
Previous Rank: 66
Hunter looked like an emerging force entering his sixth season in the NFL. His back-to-back 14.5-sack seasons gave him 54.5 only 78 games into his career. The Vikings even acquired Yannick Ngakoue to boost Hunter’s production as Everson Griffen once did. Unfortunately, everything fell apart when Hunter needed season-ending surgery on a herniated disc in his neck.
Football isn’t a sport you can walk away from for a year and return to without facing significant challenges. Similar to Chandler Jones and Von Miller, Hunter must prove he’s still one of the league’s premier players, even if it takes half the season for him to get back to a Pro Bowl level. Luckily, Hunter is only 26 years old.
The Associated Press selected Hunter as a Second-Team All-Pro in 2018, and surely some voters flirted with the idea again in 2019. The LSU product is fairly well-rounded and poses nearly a top-tier threat to offenses. Hunter is only one more year like his 2019 campaign away from entering an elite class of superstar pass rushers.
62. D.K. Metcalf, WR (9) Seattle Seahawks
Previous Rank: 58
The Seahawks were ecstatic when Metcalf fell to the final pick of the second-round in the 2019 NFL Draft. Pete Carroll and John Schneider giddily brought the combine superstar on board but remained wary of his previous injuries and heavily scrutinized route tree. So far, those factors haven’t slowed Metcalf down.
Metcalf hauled in 141 passes for 2,203 yards and 17 touchdowns during his first two seasons, not including his 16 playoff receptions for 315 yards and three touchdowns. Yes, he’s averaging a touchdown and over 100 receiving yards per playoff game to start his career. Very few defenders can handle Metcalf’s dominating combination of size and speed.
Most 23-year-olds in the NFL are far from finished products, and Metcalf is no exception. He still needs to diversify his route tree, drop fewer passes, and keep defenders from stripping him after the catch. Despite these concerns, Metcalf is the last of three wide receivers under 25 years old in the top 100.
61. Joel Bitonio, G (6) Cleveland Browns
Previous Rank: 65
Bitonio is one of the most consistent guards in recent NFL history. The 2014 second-round pick doesn’t have a Hall of Fame résumé, but he’s accumulated three Second-Team All-Pro selections from the Associated Press and four total All-Pro selections from PFF. Bitonio hasn’t missed a start over the past four years.
This past season marked the high-water point of Bitonio’s career in terms of PFF grading. He finished the year with an 84.6, which topped his previous personal best (80.3) by a good margin. The 29-year-old can credit his improvement as a run blocker for the sudden surge in grading.
Bitonio is always elite in pass protection, having finished with a pass blocking grade below 82.9 only once in his career. However, the emergence of Wyatt Teller, the arrival of Jack Conklin, and the rise of Nick Chubb combined to uplift Bitonio’s run blocking grade to top-ten levels.
Bitonio, Ali Marpet, Quenton Nelson, and Brandon Scherff were the only guards with at least 300 snaps to finish among the ten best pass and run blockers at their position.