NFL Top 200 Players of 2021 Pt. 6

Players No. 100 through 81

Welcome back to the NFL Top 200, the series where we use past success, projections for development and regression, injuries, and supporting casts to determine the best players entering the 2021 season. Today, we’re looking at Nos. 100 to 81, but make sure to check out the past editions and catch up on the rankings.

There’s no way to project exactly how the NFL season could play out, but these rankings attempt to identify players primed for breakout campaigns or in situations where they might take a step back. You’ll notice the concepts of rebound years and regression appear several times.

We have no scientific method to compare players that lineup at different positions, so this list is highly subjective. I’ve included the positional ranking of each player in parentheses to counteract this cross-positional subjectivity and give readers a better understanding of how I believe players stack up against their competition.

Please direct any comments or concerns to @Sam_Teets33 on Twitter.

(Statistics come from ESPN, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, and Pro Football Reference)

*Indicates rookie

100. Andrew Whitworth, OT (10) Los Angeles Rams

Previous Rank: 167

Is Whitworth one of the most underrated NFL players of the past 20 years? It’s a legitimate question considering the 39-year-old was the league’s fourth-highest graded offensive tackle last season. He finished in the top ten for run and pass blocking despite having a decade of experience more than most of his competition.

Whitworth only appeared in nine games last year because of injuries to his MCL and PCL, but the silver-bearded stud battled back to start both of Los Angeles’ playoff games. Whitworth is resilient and still one of the league’s best tackles, but injuries could start stacking up as Father Time zeros in on the former second-round pick.

The 2019 season was Whitworth’s worst in recent memory, and it spawned plenty of claims that the LSU product was washed up. Those assumptions were incorrect, but it’s worth building some projections for decline and injury into Whitworth’s ranking.

99. Aaron Jones, RB (8) Green Bay Packers

Previous Rank: 106

Jones isn’t your typical star running back. He was a fifth-round pick from UTEP that wowed scouts with impressive collegiate campaigns in 2014 and 2016. Now, he’s one of the league’s most productive backs that could’ve climbed as high as sixth at his position on the top 200.

Green Bay recently gave Jones a four-year, $48 million extension. While paying running backs is always a dubious affair, Jones deserves every penny of his new deal. Over the past two years, the 26-year-old ran for 2,188 yards and 25 touchdowns while averaging five yards per carry. He also made 96 receptions for 839 yards and five touchdowns (3,017 yards from scrimmage).

Jones only had 81 rushing attempts as a rookie, but he’s never produced a PFF offensive grade below 78.8. He’s one of the game’s most efficient running backs and is a quiet reason why the Packers made their second straight Conference Championship this past season.

98. Marcus Williams, S (11) New Orleans Saints

Previous Rank: 107

Williams is a victim of an era with several safeties collecting all of the awards and accolades. After four years with the Saints, he’s a legitimate star but hasn’t broken through into the mainstream. The Utah product hasn’t made a Pro Bowl yet, but he was a PFF Second-Team All-Pro in 2019. Sam Monson recently declared him the 48th best player in the NFL on the PFF50.

The Saints landed Williams with their third pick in their legendary 2017 draft haul that also featured Alex Anzalone, Marshon Lattimore, Trey Hendrickson, Alvin Kamara, and Ryan Ramczyk. Williams is the third-highest member from the class on the top 200.

Williams hasn’t received a grade below 74.0 from PFF. His 79.3 this past season finished seventh among safeties with more than 300 snaps. He has two other top-seven finishes on record but hasn’t climbed higher than fifth. Perhaps 2021 is finally the year Williams breaks into the top tier of safeties.  

97. Brian Burns, EDGE (15) Carolina Panthers

Previous Rank: 151

Landing Burns with the 16th overall pick two years ago was a steal for Carolina. The Florida St. product was a pass rushing machine in his second season, picking up nine sacks and three forced fumbles. Burns earned one of the best pass rushing grades from PFF, ranking among many All-Pros and seasoned veterans.

Burns must make his money rushing the quarterback because his run defense hasn’t reached promising levels yet. Some players can survive as one-trick ponies, but that rarely leads to greatness for non-generational talents. Burns can creep into the top ten defensive end discussion if he becomes stouter against the run. 

This coming season marks the second year of Matt Rhule’s time at the helm in Carolina. Expectations aren’t too high, but the organization wants Derrick Brown, Burns, and Yetur Gross-Matos to take a significant step forward as the defensive line’s core. We’ll see if Burns can anchor Carolina’s defensive hopes.

96. Corey Linsley, C (1) Los Angeles Chargers

Previous Rank: 45

Linsley was far and away the NFL’s best center last year, which led to him earning First-Team All-Pro honors from PFF and the Associated Press despite missing three games. The former fifth-round pick was consistent in pass protection during his first six NFL seasons, but a jump in the running game led to him earning an 89.9 grade from PFF.

Ben Garland and Brandon Linder tied Linsley for the fewest pressures allowed by a center last year with four apiece, but both men played at least 200 fewer snaps than the All-Pro. Linsley left Green Bay this offseason, joining Herbert and the Chargers in Los Angeles. He reunites with right tackle Bryan Bulaga on a reconstructed offensive line.

95. Marcus Maye, S (10) New York Jets

Previous Rank: 88

Maye didn’t get the long-term contract he was looking for from the Jets this offseason, which is a shame because he deserves it. New York asked the Florida product to replace Jamal Adams in the defensive scheme last year. Maye remained a pillar of consistency as the team’s youthful and inexperienced secondary crumbled around him.

Adams was the NFL’s best safety when New York traded him to Seattle for future picks. Maye didn’t erase the memories of Adams, but he certainly made the transition to life without the All-Pro easy. Last season, the 28-year-old played in every game, intercepting two passes, batting away 11 attempts, forcing two fumbles, recording two sacks, and amassing 88 tackles.

Maye earned an 82.9 defensive grade from PFF, which ranked fourth among all safeties with at least 300 snaps. It was his second season with a grade of 80.0 or higher.

94. Von Miller, EDGE (14) Denver Broncos

Previous Rank: 70

Miller opened his career with eight consecutive PFF grades over 90.0, an insane feat. However, the Texas A&M product took a step back in 2019, finishing with a 79.3 grade and eight sacks. The Broncos believed Miller was headed for a monster campaign before he suffered a season-ending injury ahead of Week 1 last year.

There’s plenty of speculation surrounding whether Miller can return to All-Pro form now that he’s 32 years old and over a year removed from his last live action. While he still cracks this list’s top 100, he’s in a similar category as J.J. Watt. Both aging future Hall of Famers are battling to prove they can still perform at elite levels.

Miller’s 79.3 grade in 2019 ranked 21st among all edge rushers with at least 300 snaps. He still applied a significant amount of pressure, even topping his 2018 total, but the outside linebacker’s performance against the run ultimately carried his grading.

Miller totaled double-digit tackles for loss in each of his last four seasons. He’ll have to keep that up if he wants to get back into the elite edge rusher conversation.

93. Fletcher Cox, IDL (8) Philadelphia Eagles

Previous Rank: 95

Cox went on a tear beginning in 2014. Between then and the end of 2019, he made five Pro Bowls, earned four All-Pro bids from the Associated Press, and ranked among the top ten defensive linemen in PFF grading five times, including a second-place finish in 2018. It was a dominant run that came crashing down in 2020.

After five or six years of dominance, Cox posted a 74.1 PFF grade (26th among linemen with 300 or more snaps) and accumulated fewer than half as many pressures as he had in 2018. Cox can still get the job done, but he’s a 30-year-old lineman dealing with some nicks and bruises from over 7,000 snaps in the NFL.

Cox can rebound and produce an elite season, but his time as a prime player is running low. We’ve seen players outrun Father Time in the past, but even recent superstar defensive tackles like Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy, and Ndamukong Suh weren’t All-Pros by the time they hit 30 or 31.

92. J.J. Watt, EDGE (13) Arizona Cardinals

Previous Rank: 109

The folks over at Madden keep giving Watt grades in the mid-90s despite his decline from several seasons ago. While the three-time Defensive Player of the Year no longer belongs in discussions surrounding the game’s top five pass rushers, he still warrants consideration for a spot in the top ten.

Outside of his rookie season, Watt earned First-Team All-Pro honors from the Associated Press and PFF each year he played 16 games. Well, until 2020, when he only managed five sacks and two forced fumbles in 16 appearances. Those sack numbers look pedestrian, but they hardly tell the whole story of Watt’s 2020 campaign.

Watt played over 1,000 defensive snaps last year and gave offenses headaches. He led all edge rushers in double team rate at nearly 30% per ESPN Stats & Info, which accounts for his lower sack totals. Despite drawing that much attention, Watt still applied solid pressure and remained one of the best run defenders in the NFL.

Last year, Watt posted an 85.4 PFF defensive grade, which ranked seventh among all edge rushers (minimum 300 snaps). He only has one season with a grade below 85.0 (2016) since the start of his second year.

91. Shaquil Barrett, EDGE (12) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Previous Rank: 79

The switch flipped for Barrett when he joined the Buccaneers in 2019. In his first season in Tampa Bay, the former undrafted free agent tallied more sacks (19.5) than during his four-year stay in Denver (14). Barrett received Second-Team All-Pro honors from the Associated Press for his outstanding performance.

Barrett only recorded eight sacks this past season, but his total pressures only dipped a little. The most significant change was a decrease in quarterback knockdowns/hits and a rise in hurries, suggesting Barrett was a half-second behind his 2019 speed.

Barrett ranked among the top six edge rushers in total pressures for Pro Football Reference. PFF claims only Aaron Donald applied more pressure than Barrett this past season.

Tampa Bay’s front office put on a master class this summer, retaining most of the team’s essential pieces. That means Barrett is back with the boys, including JPP, Ndamukong Suh, and Vita Vea. The Buccaneers also drafted Joe Tryon, who head coach Bruce Arians was very complimentary of in August.

That Bucs defensive front is going to give offensive coordinators nightmares.

90. Jack Conklin, OT (9) Cleveland Browns

Previous Rank: 41

Conklin hasn’t made the Pro Bowl during his five-year NFL career, but the former eighth overall pick earned his second First-Team All-Pro selection from the Associated Press and PFF this past season. Conklin is one of four star linemen up front for Cleveland, and Jedrick Wills Jr. has a chance to make it five for five.

Conklin took advantage of Ryan Ramczyk having a down year and Mitchell Schwartz missing time to reclaim his title as the league’s best right tackle. The former Titan put together a well-rounded performance that produced an 84.3 PFF grade. Michael Onwenu was the only right tackle to play over 500 snaps and allow fewer pressures than Conklin.

The Browns put together a talented offense last season that hit its stride midway through the year as Nick Chubb returned from injury. Sticking to that formula in 2021 should keep Conklin and the rest of Cleveland’s line in contention for awards.

89. Bryce Callahan, CB (9) Denver Broncos

Previous Rank: 160

Before signing with Denver, Callahan spent the first four years of his career as a slot cornerback in Chicago. The former undrafted free agent from Rice missed his first season with the Broncos because of a foot injury but returned strong in 2020. Playing primarily on the outside, Callahan made ten starts and intercepted two passes.

Callahan dominated in coverage last season, allowing no touchdowns on over 50 targets. Quarterbacks completed fewer than 55.0% of their attempts when targeting Callahan and posted passer ratings below 48.0.

Few cornerbacks came close to matching that efficiency, which is why Callahan’s 84.1 defensive grade from PFF ranked third among all cornerbacks (minimum 300 snaps).

Unfortunately for Callahan, Denver invested heavily in the cornerback room this offseason, adding Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller, and Patrick Surtain II. It’s unknown how the new trio will alter Callahan’s playing time. Fuller played with Callahan and head coach Vic Fangio in Chicago.

88. Justin Herbert, QB (10) Los Angeles Chargers

Previous Rank: 115

Herbert was the third of three highly touted quarterbacks drafted in 2020, but he had the best rookie season of the three. The Oregon product set the rookie records for completions and passing touchdowns. He finished under 50 yards shy of Andrew Luck’s rookie passing yards record too.

Expectations are incredibly high for Herbert entering his second season. We’ve seen quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield stumble in their encore performances while others like Lamar Jackson had career years. Los Angeles overhauled the offensive line for Hebert this offseason, and the coaching change is the only outside hurdle that could hamper his improvement.

Herbert finished his rookie season with a 98.3 passer rating and 69.5 QBR, which both narrowly ranked outside the top ten. Projecting for some growth makes it easy to see the 23-year-old as one of the league’s top 100 players.

87. Demario Davis, LB (6) New Orleans Saints

Previous Rank: 89

Davis is the sixth and final linebacker making an appearance in the top 100. The position as a whole didn’t contribute many candidates to the top 200. Only 11 linebackers made the list despite most teams featuring at least two. Davis began rising up his position’s ranks during his second stint in New York before peaking in New Orleans.

Davis was a First-Team All-Pro for the Associated Press and PFF in 2019 and a Second-Team selection for the Associated Press in 2020. The lowest grade he’s posted in the past four years is a 73.7 (2017), and he finished second among linebackers (minimum 300 snaps) with a 90.1 in 2019. Davis’ 78.1 mark in 2020 ranked sixth among qualified players at his position.

The Saints have stars at all levels, and they’re getting some of them at bargain prices. Davis only carries a $6.9 million cap hit for this coming season before finally seeing his base salary spike in 2022. He’s tied for having the 31st-highest average annual salary among outside and inside linebackers.  

86. Za'Darius Smith, EDGE (11) Green Bay Packers

Previous Rank: 61

Smith had some decent seasons in Baltimore, but his career took off when he arrived in Green Bay two years ago. The former fourth-round pick is on a two-year Pro Bowl streak, having tallied 26 sacks since joining Matt LaFleur’s squad. Smith’s unrelenting pressure earned him a 90.2 grade and a First-Team All-Pro selection from PFF in 2019.

Smith’s grade dropped to 76.7 in 2020, but he still earned a Second-Team All-Pro nod from the Associated Press. The soon-to-be 29-year-old has enough time left in his prime to wreak more havoc as NFC North teams begin bringing in rookie linemen. Early projections had Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota all starting one rookie tackle.

Smith plays at the level of a top-five edge rusher when paired with a sufficient running mate. That was Preston Smith in 2019, but the Mississippi St. product dropped off significantly in 2020. Perhaps 2019 first-round pick Rashan Gary can step into that No. 2 role and get Smith back to his world-wrecking ways.

85. DeMarcus Lawrence, EDGE (10) Dallas Cowboys

Previous Rank: 86

Lawrence is easily one of the NFL’s most disrespected players. Cowboys fans are mad at him for not producing double-digit sacks after signing a five-year, $105 million extension, while other fans around the league knock him down to build up their own pass rushing icons. It’s true, Lawrence hasn’t had a ten-sack season since 2018, but sacks hardly tell the full story.

The Associated Press and PFF selected Lawrence as a Second-Team All-Pro when he amassed 14.5 sacks in 2017. Many people don’t realize PFF granted him that honor last year too. Lawrence doesn’t get many sacks (he only has 11.5 in the last two years), but he’s a borderline elite run defender that gets a high percentage of pressure on his limited snaps.

Last year, Lawrence posted an 88.7 defensive grade, which ranked fifth among all edge rushers (minimum 300 snaps). The 29-year-old has three top-ten finishes in the past four years. He even posted an 86.2 grade in his “down” season (2019).

The biggest realistic knock against Lawrence is his lack of snaps. The Boise State product hasn’t missed a game since 2016, but he’s only played over 700 defensive snaps twice (2017 and 2018). The star defensive end played 668 snaps in 2019 and 2020, which significantly lags behind the expected count for top defenders.

84. Calvin Ridley, WR (13) Atlanta Falcons

Previous Rank: 81

Ridley showed promise during his first two seasons but didn’t see enough targets to post the numbers he did in 2020. In his third season, Ridley exploded for 90 receptions, 1,374 yards, and nine touchdowns. The third-year Alabama product was a Second-Team All-Pro for the Associated Press and made Atlanta confident enough to trade Julio Jones this offseason.

This year is the real test for Ridley. Even though Jones only played in nine games last year and battled nagging injuries over the past two campaigns, he’s always loomed as Atlanta’s ultimate offensive threat. Ridley steps into that role this season. Kyle Pitts likely takes some pressure off his new teammate, but fans expect Ridley to have another All-Pro year.

Ridley tied for the 13th most receptions last year, finished fifth in receiving yards, and tied for tenth in receiving touchdowns. He’s as capable of replacing a legend of Jones’ stature as any other young receiver in the NFL.

83. Chase Young, EDGE (9) Washington Football Team

Previous Rank: 103

Young posted an 87.2 defensive grade as a rookie with a COVID-19 altered offseason. For context, Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, DeMarcus Lawrence, Khalil Mack, and T.J. Watt were the only qualified edge rushers with higher grades. Young’s grade even ranked 18th among all defensive players last season with 300 or more snaps.

The Washington Football Team has a budding superstar on their hands. The returns of Nick Bosa, Danielle Hunter, Chandler Jones, and Von Miller might push Young down the pass rusher hierarchy, but he’s still comfortably inside the top 100. A full offseason with Ron Rivera’s club should do wonders for Young and lead to an epic encore.

Young finished 2020 with 7.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, and double-digit tackles for loss. He played roughly 770 snaps.   

82. Jonathan Taylor, RB (7) Indianapolis Colts

Previous Rank: 145

Some skilled running backs missed out on cracking the top 100 because they lacked one thing: opportunities. Taylor stands to benefit from running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and he could see a Derrick Henry-level workload as Carson Wentz rebounds from foot surgery.

Indianapolis has one of the league’s best running back rooms. Marlon Mack might possess the skill to start on several other teams, but he’s clearly backing up Taylor in Indy. Nyheim Hines will see a heavy workload as a pass-catching back, but that’s never been Taylor’s game anyway.

The Colts fed Taylor 232 carries in 2020, producing 1,169 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. Remember, 651 of those yards and seven of those touchdowns came in Taylor’s final five appearances. The Wisconsin product averaged 19.4 carries during that last stretch. He’ll finish with roughly 330 carries if he holds that pace throughout the 2021 campaign.

81. Dak Prescott, QB (9) Dallas Cowboys

Previous Rank: 97

Prescott was on pace for a historic career year before suffering a compound fracture and dislocated right ankle. Let’s ignore the fifth game, which he didn’t finish, and focus on the first four. Prescott averaged 422.5 passing yards during those outings, which projects to 6,760 yards during a 16-game season. The current record for passing yards in a season is 5,477.

Prescott was also on pace for 36 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and a passer rating slightly north of 102.0. The Mississippi State product set a career-high with an 85.2 offensive grade from PFF, finally topping his rookie performance (83.7). Prescott ranked eighth among all quarterbacks in PFF’s system with at least 100 drop backs in 2020.

Dallas suffered countless misfortunes last season, and the Cowboys haven’t started on the right foot this year. Prescott is already dealing with a strained shoulder muscle, but the team is hopeful he’ll return in time to practice before Week 1. 

“We’re being cautious,” Prescott said during a Hall of Fame Game halftime interview with FOX. “We’re taking it day by day, obviously. It’s five weeks before the season opener, so I’ve got a lot of time. And I’m going to use that time to get myself ready for that game.”

The Cowboys have more than enough weapons to start another dominant offensive run, as long as Prescott is healthy.