NFL Top 200 Players of 2021 No. 60-41
Part 8
The NFL Top 200 predicts the best players for the 2021 NFL season using past success, projections for development and regression, injuries, and supporting casts. We get one step closer to the top 20 today by looking at Nos. 60 to 41. Make sure to read the previous editions and catch up on the rankings.
There’s no way to project exactly how the NFL season could play out, but these rankings attempt to identify players primed for breakout campaigns or in situations where they might take a step back. You’ll notice the concepts of rebound years and regression appear several times.
We have no scientific method to compare players that line up at different positions, so this list is highly subjective. I’ve included the positional ranking of each player in parentheses to counteract this cross-positional subjectivity and give readers a better understanding of how I believe players stack up against their competition.
Please direct any comments or concerns to @Sam_Teets33 on Twitter.
(Statistics come from ESPN, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, and Pro Football Reference)
*Indicates rookie
Guards and Safeties Dominate
60. Garett Bolles, OT (7) Denver Broncos
Previous Rank: 48
Denver didn’t exercise the fifth-year option on Bolles’ rookie deal. The former 20th overall pick looked dead in the water heading into his fourth NFL season. Bolles gave up hundreds of yards in penalties during his first three seasons and allowed pressures in buckets. Luckily, a switch flipped on in the Utah product’s mind this past season.
Relaxed rules along the line of scrimmage gave Bolles a chance to show his true physicality. He went from committing 17 penalties in 2019 to only seven this past season. In late November, Denver hammered out a four-year $68 million extension with Bolles, less than a year after turning down his option.
Bolles posted the third-highest PFF grade among offensive tackles with at least 300 snaps. His 90.6 only trailed perennial superstars David Bakhtiari (91.8) and Trent Williams (91.9). The Broncos star received Second-Team All-Pro nods from the Associated Press and PFF.
Bolles’ breakout performance earned the respect of his highly regarded teammates.
“Garett Bolles, he’s blocking the best pass rushers in the league,” Von Miller told reporters in late July. “He is the best left tackle in the league. If he’s not the best, he’s top three and he’s not [No.] three. I’m so proud of him.”
We’ll see if Bolles proves capable of replicating his 2020 All-Pro performance.
59. Brandon Scherff, G (5) Washington Football Team
Previous Rank: 55
Washington franchise tagged Scherff this offseason for the second year in a row. Ron Rivera’s team can’t afford to lose one of the NFL’s best guards, but Scherff could command a king’s ransom if he ever hits the open market. The 29-year-old hasn’t played in at least 14 games since 2017, but he’s coming off an All-Pro season.
Scherff earned First-Team All-Pro honors from the Associated Press and Second-Team honors from PFF for his breakout performance in 2020. The Iowa product always performed well, but last season marked a significant jump. Scherff smashed his previous career-high PFF grade (79.8) by posting an 84.1, which ranked seventh among all qualified guards (at least 300 snaps).
The Washington Football Team enters 2021 with an exciting roster led by journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Football fans already know Washington’s defensive line is dominant, but Scherff could lead the offensive line to its own glory.
58. Chandler Jones, EDGE (6) Arizona Cardinals
Previous Rank: 63
Jones tallied 96 sacks in his first 119 NFL games (eight seasons), including a 19-sack performance in 2019. He’s earned First-Team All-Pro selections from the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers, and Sporting News twice apiece but hasn’t appeared on a PFF team yet. Perhaps the 31-year-old can change that with a dominant 2021 performance.
The Cardinals shut Jones down after only five appearances last year because of a biceps injury that required surgery. The All-Decade Team member was off to one of his slowest starts ever, posting only one sack and 11 tackles through five starts. He could unite with J.J. Watt this season, but the All-Pro requested a trade earlier this offseason.
Arizona seems uninterested in trading Jones, which means we’ll see the Jones-Watt pairing after all. The former superstars are both in their early thirties. Hopefully, playing alongside one another draws out a few vintage performances.
57. Wyatt Teller, G (4) Cleveland Browns
Previous Rank: 29
The Buffalo Bills took Teller with a fifth-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. After one year and seven starts, Buffalo traded the Virginia Tech product to Cleveland for three Day Three draft picks. Teller was mediocre for the Browns in 2019 before exploding onto the scene last year. He was the best run blocking guard in football and led the position with a 92.9 PFF grade.
Teller arguably deserves a higher spot on this list. He was all the way up at 29 in the first edition of the top 200, but reality sunk in over the past few months. Teller is still only an average guard in pass protection, and he played fewer than 700 snaps last year because of an ankle injury. We need to see another year of that All-Pro play before putting Teller too high.
Several factors are working in the 26-year-old’s favor. First, he’s finally on a stable offense with little turnover.
“It’s crazy going into Year 4 in the NFL and this is the first time having the same offensive line coach for two years in a row,” Teller told his team’s official website. “I’m doing my work and I'm trying to get better.”
Second, Teller is in a contract year. Most players rise to the occasion in these situations to secure future financial compensation. We’ll see if that’s the case for Teller.
56. Jamal Adams, S (7) Seattle Seahawks
Previous Rank: 60
Adams went from back-to-back top-five finishes in PFF grading among qualified safeties (300 snaps minimum) to falling outside the top 40 this past season. There are plenty of excuses for his career-low 64.2 grade. He battled injuries all year, was adjusting to a new coaching staff, and didn’t have another defensive back on par with his former running mate, Marcus Maye.
Adams only remained this high on the NFL top 200 because he was a beast in 2018 and 2019. He earned one First-Team and one Second-Team All-Pro selection from the Associated Press and PFF each during those two years. The 25-year-old was also a Second-Teamer for the Associated Press this past season.
No educated Seahawks fan expected Adams to play Earl Thomas’ old role. He only intercepted two passes during his three years in New York. However, his coverage numbers took a massive hit last year. Seattle tried to hide Adams and their weak pass rush at times with excessive blitzing, but the LSU product still gave up a passer rating well over 100.0 when targeted.
Adams’ 9.5 sacks held plenty of value, especially considering no other Seahawk even had seven, but his large role in the box and ineffective coverage snaps caused problems. Hopefully Seattle finds a better way to use Adams moving forward.
55. Duane Brown, OT (6) Seattle Seahawks
Previous Rank: 64
Seattle made the right decision trading for Brown in 2017. The soon-to-be 36-year-old left tackle is the best offensive lineman Russell Wilson has ever played behind. Despite his age and missing 12 games over the past six years, Brown is easily still one of the game’s premier offensive linemen.
Brown’s career peaked in the early and mid-2010s, but the veteran showed some old signs of glory over the past three years. His 87.3 PFF grade this past season ranked sixth among all tackles with a minimum of 300 snaps. He ranked inside the top 15 qualified tackles in pass and run blocking and was the second-highest graded Seahawk behind Wilson.
Brown becomes a free agent after this upcoming season, but his NFL career doesn’t have to end there. The 2008 first-round pick could take the Andrew Whitworth route and play until he’s almost 40.
54. Allen Robinson, WR (8) Chicago Bears
Previous Rank: 83
Robinson’s career arc is far from ordinary. He went from getting drafted below Marqise Lee and producing fewer yards than Allen Hurns as a rookie to producing 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns in his second season. Injuries and poor quarterback play limited Robinson to 30 games and 1,654 yards over the next three years before returning to stardom in 2019.
Over the past two years, Robinson recorded 200 receptions for 2,397 yards and 13 touchdowns, despite primarily catching passes from Nick Foles and Mitchel Trubisky. He was PFF’s fifth-highest graded wide receiver in 2020 but is still waiting on his second Pro Bowl and first All-Pro selection from the Associated Press.
The Bears have high hopes for rookie quarterback Justin Fields, but Robinson seems headed for another year where he outperforms his supporting cast.
53. Terron Armstead, OT (5) New Orleans Saints
Previous Rank: 77
Fans voted Armstead to the last three Pro Bowls, showing that one of the league’s best blindside protectors is finally getting the love he deserves. The former third-round pick from the 2013 NFL Draft was an All-Pro in 2018, and he’s continued performing at a high level. He even led the ultra-talented Saints in PFF grading for the 2020 season.
Armstead posted an 86.3 grade in 2020, the third-highest mark of his career. That score finished seventh among tackles with at least 300 snaps. Armstead finished first at his position in 2018 with a 90.4.
Injuries remain a constant concern for Armstead. Since entering the NFL, he’s missed 39 games, including 15 over the past four seasons. The Saints need Armstead healthy more than ever as the franchise searches for its new quarterback.
52. Harrison Smith, S (6) Minnesota Vikings
Previous Rank: 59
Smith was one of the most egregious snubs from the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s All-Decade Team. During his first nine years in the NFL, Smith earned PFF grades of 85.0 or higher and graded inside the top five safeties (minimum 300 snaps) four times. He was a PFF First-Team All-Pro three times but only an Associated Press All-Pro twice.
Minnesota drafted Smith with the 29th overall pick in 2012, and the Notre Dame product has far outplayed his draft positioning. According to ESPN, in 130 games, Smith has 28 interceptions, 67 passes defensed, 13.5 sacks, and 748 tackles. Devin McCourty is the only active safety with career production close to Smith’s.
Smith is widely acknowledged as one of the best safeties when it comes to disguising coverages. Even league MVP Aaron Rodgers, who plays Smith twice a year, gets flustered by the 32-year-old’s play.
“He’s the most frustrating guy I play against with his disguises because he does so many different things from the line of scrimmage — blitz, play the curl flat in a two-invert, run back and play quarter safety, run back and play the half, run back and play the middle-field third,” Rodgers told The Pat McAfee Show. “It’s a little maddening sometimes with what they do.”
Smith recently signed a four-year, $64 million contract extension with the Vikings.
51. Justin Simmons, S (5) Denver Broncos
Previous Rank: 52
Simmons has a legitimate case for being the top safety in football. He’s intercepted nine passes over the past two years and broken up 24 more while consistently contributing as one of the best tackling safeties. Fans expect safeties like Adams and Budda Baker to make plays in the run game because they spend so much time in the box, but Simmons isn’t far behind.
PFF gave Simmons a 77.4 defensive grade last year, which ranked eighth among safeties with 300 or more snaps. The Boston College product ranked first in 2019 with a 90.7. That year, he allowed a passer rating below 45.0, a completion percentage below 55.0%, and surrendered one touchdown at most when targeted.
That’s unrealistic production for most safeties to have in back-to-back years, which is why Simmons’ slight decline comes as no surprise. The 27-year-old was still a Second-Team All-Pro for PFF last year, but he’s fallen to fourth among safeties on this list.
50. Marlon Humphrey, CB (4) Baltimore Ravens
Previous Rank: 90
The Ravens used Humphrey sparingly during his rookie season, but the 25-year-old still found ways to get his hands on the ball. Since entering the NFL, Humphrey hasn’t posted a PFF grade below 70.0. He’s one of the league’s most consistent cornerbacks, keeping completion percentages in the low sixties and passer ratings well below 90.0.
Over the past two seasons, Humphrey has four interceptions, 25 passes defensed, ten forced fumbles, 2.5 sacks, 147 tackles, and two defensive touchdowns. He was a First-Team All-Pro as a defensive back for the Associated Press in 2019 but still hasn’t earned an All-Pro selection as a true cornerback.
Despite his consistency, Humphrey hasn’t cracked PFF’s ten highest-graded cornerbacks in a season yet. However, PFF’s Ben Linsey ranked Humphrey as the third-best outside cornerback entering the 2021 season. We’ll see if the fifth-year pro can cement himself as one of the NFL’s perennial superstars.
49. Ali Marpet, G (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Previous Rank: 49
Marpet, a 28-year-old Hobart product (yes, you read that right), entered the NFL as a second-round pick in 2015, and he’s more than met expectations. Marpet missed three games last season and still earned First-Team All-Pro honors from PFF. He hasn’t convinced the Associated Press of his dominance yet, but they’ll come around eventually.
Marpet hasn’t posted a PFF grade below 72.0 during his six-year career, and he’s finished above 81.0 three times. This past season was the high-water mark for Marpet. He earned a career-high 86.7 offensive grade, which ranked third among all guards (minimum 300 snaps), while setting a personal best in run blocking.
Tampa Bay brought back most of its major free agents this offseason, giving the team a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions. No one outshines Tom Brady, but it’s worth noting that only the seven-time Super Bowl champion had a higher grade on the Buccaneers this past season than Marpet.
48. Vita Vea, IDL (5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Previous Rank: 78
Vea played under 300 snaps last regular season because of a fractured ankle suffered in Week 5. Fortunately, he healed quickly enough to return in time for the NFC Championship Game and Super Bowl LV. It’s astonishing that a 6'4'', 347 lb. man recovered as quickly as Vea and played at an elite level during the season’s biggest game.
Vea was well on his way to stardom before the ankle injury. The 26-year-old earned a 90.1 defensive grade from PFF, which only trailed Aaron Donald and Chris Jones among interior defensive linemen. Since Tampa Bay’s front office kept the band together, the Buccaneers expect similar results this year.
Playing alongside Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Ndamukong Suh creates the perfect environment for Vea to cause chaos. Expect the league’s best nose tackle to compete for All-Pro recognition this season.
47. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S (4) Pittsburgh Steelers
Previous Rank: 46
Fitzpatrick probably jumped for joy when he heard Jamal Adams signed a four-year, $70 million extension with the Seattle Seahawks. Adams has an active streak of three consecutive All-Pro selections from the Associated Press, and Fitzpatrick could match that mark with another stellar performance.
Trading a first-round pick to Miami for Fitzpatrick rewarded the Steelers two years in a row. The Alabama product was a First-Team All-Pro for the Associated Press in 2019 and 2020, intercepting nine passes, breaking up 20 attempts, and scoring three defensive touchdowns. He’s one of the league’s most versatile safeties, capable of playing deep or in the slot.
Fitzpatrick earned back-to-back top-ten PFF grades amongst safeties with at least 300 snaps. He received a 79.8 defensive grade in 2019 and rebounded from a poor start to 2020 with a 79.5. Fitzpatrick didn’t see many targets last year, but he took full advantage of his opportunities, allowing a passer rating below 66.0 and a completion percentage below 51.0%.
46. Tyrann Mathieu, S (3) Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Rank: 40
Mathieu almost won the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2015, but an injury late in the season robbed him of valuable snaps down the stretch. It took the LSU product several years to fully return to dominance and shake off his reputation as an injury-prone player. Mathieu is back atop the football world after two seasons in Kansas City.
Since joining the Chiefs, Mathieu has ten interceptions, 21 passes defensed, two sacks, and 137 tackles. Despite already having eight seasons under his belt, Mathieu is only 29 years old, meaning he’s still young enough to deploy from various alignments. The Chiefs lined him up in every position possible last year, and the former third-round pick constantly delivered.
Pro Football Reference claims Mathieu faced 147 targets over the past two years and only gave up a 59.0 passer rating. He’s one of the NFL’s most instinctual players, often coming out of nowhere to make a big play.
The Chiefs need Mathieu more than ever this year as their battered and undermanned secondary faces new threats in the AFC.
45. Eric Kendricks, LB (5) Minnesota Vikings
Previous Rank: 74
It took several years, but Kendricks is finally living up to his pedigree as a top-50 pick from the 2015 NFL Draft. Kendricks made his first Pro Bowl in 2019 and was a First-Team All-Pro for the Associated Press and PFF. He missed out on five games this past season but still received Second-Team All-Pro honors from PFF.
The jump that took Kendricks from average starter to perennial All-Pro came in coverage. Offenses smoked the UCLA product for most of his rookie contract, but a lightbulb went off in 2019. When targeted that year, Kendricks allowed a completion percentage below 55.0% and surrendered a passer rating in the low eighties.
This past season was even better for Kendricks in coverage. He allowed a higher completion percentage but didn’t surrender a touchdown. The 29-year-old allowed a passer rating below 61.0 when targeted.
Kendricks was PFF’s highest-graded linebacker in 2019 (minimum 300 snaps) with a 90.2 grade. He finished in the top five last year with an 82.6.
44. Nick Chubb, RB (5) Cleveland Browns
Previous Rank: 35
Chubb fell to the second-round of the 2018 NFL Draft because of injury concerns dating back to his early days at Georgia. The 25-year-old running back missed four games last season, but he appeared in all 32 games during his first two seasons. Chubb was on pace for his second consecutive year with over 1,400 rushing yards before getting sidelined.
Chubb is an incredibly productive running back that benefits heavily from running behind a dominant offensive line. He’s a fierce runner with a surprising amount of pop and punishment for overly zealous defenders. The two-time Pro Bowler finished among the top five backs in runs of ten or more yards and yards after contact last season.
PFF selected Chubb as a Second-Team All-Pro in 2019, but he’s still waiting on a nomination from the Associated Press. Assuming Chubb and Cleveland’s offensive line stays healthy this year, the Georgia product could easily snag a spot among the league’s three best running backs.
43. Derwin James, S (2) Los Angeles Chargers
Previous Rank: 108
Somehow James fell to 17th in the 2018 NFL Draft, where Los Angeles happily scooped him up. The Florida St. product set the NFL on fire as a rookie, capturing First-Team All-Pro honors as a safety from the Associated Press and Second-Team All-Pro honors as a defensive back. PFF named James to their Second-Team for his 88.3 defensive grade.
Unfortunately, we haven’t seen much of James since his rookie season. The 25-year-old suffered from a stress fracture in his foot that stole 11 games from him in 2019. James missed all of last season with a torn meniscus. The league’s most gifted and talented safety hasn’t played in a regular season game since December 29, 2019.
Some analysts speculated that James had the athleticism to take snaps at cornerback before his back-to-back injuries. He could easily retake the top safety spot if he’s even remotely close to 100% in 2021.
42. Jessie Bates III, S (1) Cincinnati Bengals
Previous Rank: 43
This past year, Bates was the only safety with over 300 snaps who received a defensive grade in the nineties from PFF. Bates’ 90.1 narrowly edged out Adrian Amos’ 89.4 for the top mark among all safeties. As a reward, Bates was a PFF First-Team All-Pro. He also received Second-Team honors from the Associated Press.
Cincinnati nailed their second-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft when they took Bates. The Wake Forest product is keeping pace with fellow draftmates Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James while outpacing others like Terrell Edmunds and Justin Reid.
Bates hasn’t missed a start in his career. He’s played over 1,000 defensive snaps each season, amassing nine interceptions, 31 passes defensed, and roughly 320 tackles. The 24-year-old enjoyed only mixed success in coverage until this past season when he only allowed quarterbacks to complete 54.3% of their attempts against him.
Bates is a free agent next season. If he continues performing at an elite level, the Cincinnati star could try to match Adams’ record-setting extension.
41. Darius Leonard, LB (4) Indianapolis Colts
Previous Rank: 39
Leonard had one of the best starts to his career any NFL player could ask for. As a rookie, he was a First-Team All-Pro for the Associated Press, led the league in tackles, and was the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Leonard followed up his stellar debut season by earning Second-Team honors in 2019 and claiming another First-Team spot in 2020.
PFF hasn’t chosen Leonard as an All-Pro yet, but the former second-round pick is still a very good player by their metrics. He’s graded among the game’s top ten linebackers each season (minimum 300 snaps) despite some shortcomings in coverage. Leonard allowed a passer rating over 90.0 as a rookie, and that mark spiked to over 100.0 in 2020.
The 26-year-old is possibly the league’s best big-play machine at linebacker. While he has some issues in coverage, Leonard is an elite chess piece capable of causing damage in almost any way imaginable. He amassed 416 tackles, 15 sacks, seven interceptions, nine forced fumbles, and four fumble recoveries in just 42 games.