NFL Top 200 Players of 2021 No. 20-1
The grand finale
We’ve finally made it. This is the final edition of the NFL Top 200, the series that predicts the best players for 2021 using past success, projections for development and regression, injuries, and supporting casts. Today, we’ll reveal the league’s best players, beginning with the countdown’s highest-ranked offensive tackle.
There’s no way to project exactly how the NFL season could play out, but these rankings attempt to identify players primed for breakout campaigns or in situations where they might take a step back. You’ll notice the concepts of rebound years and regression appear several times.
We have no scientific method to compare players that lineup at different positions, so this list is highly subjective. I’ve included the positional ranking of each player in parentheses to counteract this cross-positional subjectivity and give readers a better understanding of how I believe players stack up against their competition.
Please direct any comments or concerns to @Sam_Teets33 on Twitter.
(Statistics come from ESPN, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, and Pro Football Reference)
*Indicates rookie
20. Trent Williams, OT (1) San Francisco 49ers
Previous Rank: 14
Williams took a year off from football and was as dominant as ever in his return, posting a 91.9 PFF offensive grade. That grade was the league’s high-water mark for tackles this past season. Williams thrived in San Francisco’s blocking scheme, and he could make a pass at repeating as champion since the 49ers are finally getting healthy.
Only Terron Armstead, Jonathan Ogden, Jason Peters, and Joe Staley led offensive tackles in overall grading twice (minimum 300 snaps) during the PFF era. Williams accomplished the feat three times, including in 2020. He posted position-leading grades of 91.8 in 2013 and 92.7 in 2016. However, the Associated Press didn’t award Williams First-Team All-Pro honors in any of those years.
Williams lived in the shadows of Peters and Tyron Smith in the NFC East for years, but he could ultimately have the best career of the three. The recently minted 33-year-old signed a six-year $138.06 million contract extension in March.
19. Jalen Ramsey, CB (2) Los Angeles Rams
Previous Rank: 23
Most franchises recognized Ramsey as the best cornerback prospect since Patrick Peterson when the Florida St. product entered the 2016 NFL Draft. He didn’t disappoint, allowing a passer rating below 80.0 as a rookie and earning First-Team All-Pro honors across the board in 2017. However, Ramsey is still seeking to recapture that dominance from his second season.
The Associated Press picked Ramsey as a First-Team All-Pro in 2020, and PFF gave him Second-Team honors. The 26-year-old is undoubtedly one of the game’s best and most gifted cornerbacks, but his 79.8 defensive grade last year was still well below his 90.6 from 2017. Ramsey has Hall of Fame talent, but he’s still fighting to realize it.
This past year only marked Ramsey’s second time ranking among PFF’s ten highest-graded corners (minimum 300 snaps), but there’s a reasonable explanation. Ramsey covers the league’s best receivers every week, something playing in the NFC West only emphasized even more.
Most cornerbacks couldn’t reach the same peaks as Ramsey against his level of competition, which is why the shutdown specialist cracks the top 20.
18. Joey Bosa, EDGE (4) Los Angeles Chargers
Previous Rank: 20
The older Bosa brother gets glossed over too often when discussing the NFL’s best defenders. Bosa possesses enough talent to qualify as a perennial Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) candidate, but his health remains a limiting factor. The 26-year-old only has two 16-game seasons under his belt and has missed 17 games since entering the NFL.
Bosa easily eclipsed ten sacks and averaged nearly 70 tackles during his two healthy campaigns, showing his ability to compete as an elite run defender. PFF selected the Ohio St. product as a Second-Team All-Pro in 2019, and the company’s grading system remains high on Bosa. He only has one season with a defensive grade below 86.0.
Losing four games this past year really hurt Bosa because no matter what website you check, he still finished among the top five edge rushers in pressures. He played 200 to 300 fewer snaps than every other player in the top ten. Even Myles Garrett, who missed two games, played 758 defensive snaps, according to Pro Football Reference. Bosa played 549.
One complete year from Bosa at his current level could vault the Florida native into the top edge rusher spot.
17. Stefon Diggs, WR (3) Buffalo Bills
Previous Rank: 15
The Minnesota Vikings loved having Diggs and Adam Thielen paired together, but the younger receiver was ready to spread his wings last offseason. Landing in Buffalo was perfect for Diggs and his new quarterback, Josh Allen. Diggs torched the NFL in 2020, leading the league with 127 receptions and 1,535 receiving yards. He also scored eight touchdowns.
Diggs earned First-Team All-Pro honors from most outlets and made his first Pro Bowl. The former fifth-round pick already had two 1,000-yard seasons on the books, but no one expected him to thrive the way he did in 2020. The Maryland product’s next step is to show his staying power by putting on another phenomenal display.
Allen and Diggs turned into one of the league’s best marriages. The 27-year-old receiver gave his quarterback plenty of open targets and helped stretch the field. Their chemistry carried into the playoffs, where Diggs caught 20 passes for 311 yards and two touchdowns in three games.
16. Jaire Alexander, CB (1) Green Bay Packers
Previous Rank: 18
The Packers knew Alexander was special when they drafted him 18th overall in 2018, but not even the organization realized how talented the Louisville product was. Alexander was a First-Team All-Pro for PFF last year and should’ve been for the Associated Press, but he settled for a spot on the Second-Team.
Quarterbacks completed under 52.0% of their pass attempts for a passer rating below 70.0 when targeting Alexander. Offenses became so afraid of Alexander that they cut back on targeting him, sometimes only going his way once or twice a game. Despite playing nearly 140 more snaps in 2020 than his rookie season, Alexander faced roughly ten or 11 fewer targets.
Consistency at the cornerback position is tough to come by. Tre'Davious White was the only corner to earn Associated Press All-Pro honors in 2019 and 2020, and this past year was far from his best showing. We’ll see if Alexander can keep his streak of dominant play alive as the Packers go for their third consecutive appearance in the NFC Championship Game.
15. Tyreek Hill, WR (2) Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Rank: 31
What do you get the quarterbacks with one of the biggest arms in the NFL? One of the fastest wide receivers. Defenses still haven’t figured out how to neutralize the combination of Hill’s speed and Patrick Mahomes’ arm. Perhaps that’ll change in the duo’s fourth year together as starters, but that seems unlikely.
Hill is one of the league’s most elusive and explosive players. Kansas City wants to get him the ball whenever possible, making for an exciting combination of short passes, screens, end arounds, and deep bombs. No current superstar receivers can match Hill’s playing style and versatility.
Despite primarily playing special teams as a rookie and missing a quarter of the season in 2019, Hill has 5,391 receiving yards five years into his career. The 27-year-old dealt with several nagging injuries over the past two seasons, but he’s still a threat as long as his speed remains intact.
14. Zack Martin, G (2) Dallas Cowboys
Previous Rank: 13
Martin is one of the most consistent players in the NFL. He made the Pro Bowl in each of his first six seasons and never missed out on an Associated Press All-Pro team. The Notre Dame stud was a First-Team member in 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019 and a Second-Team selection in 2015 and 2017. He made five PFF All-Pro teams during that time.
Even the impeccable guard wasn’t immune to Dallas’ misfortune last season. He missed six games mainly because of a calf injury. Martin only missed two starts during his first six years in the league. However, Martin’s injury only occurred after he flashed incredible versatility by spending a significant amount of time at right tackle.
Despite not having La'el Collins, Tryon Smith, or the retired Travis Frederick alongside him, Martin posted a 91.3 offensive grade. That score ranked second among all guards in the NFL last season, only trailing Wyatt Teller’s 92.9. Martin hasn’t finished outside of the top five guards in offensive grading in any season during his career.
Four years remain on Martin’s contract, which means he’ll likely finish his prime, and possibly his career, in Dallas.
13. Myles Garrett, EDGE (3) Cleveland Browns
Previous Rank: 9
Garrett is on the short list of perennial DPOY candidates and will live up to his draft hype as a generational pass rusher. The former Texas A&M standout has 42.5 sacks 51 games into his career, including 9.5 in Cleveland’s first nine games last year. Garrett seemed primed for a DPOY run before losing some time, and weight, to COVID-19.
The NFL features roughly five unstoppable defensive linemen/edge rushers, and Garrett ranks fourth in that class on the top 200. The 25-year-old already has a Second and a First-Team All-Pro selection from the Associated Press under his belt and could’ve had more if he hadn’t hit Mason Rudolph over the head.
Garrett’s 89.5 PFF grade in 2020 marked a new career-high. He’s never earned a defensive grade below an 80.0, and each of his past three campaigns checked in at 86.5 or higher.
12. Quenton Nelson, G (1) Indianapolis Colts
Previous Rank: 16
Nelson recently underwent surgery for a foot injury, and his recovery could take five to 12 weeks. The fourth-year pro plans on starting Week 1, but that’s not in his control. Nelson hasn’t missed a game since entering the NFL three years ago, and he’s earned First-Team All-Pro honors from the Associated Press each season.
Nelson blew through the NFL over the past several years. He outscored All-Pros Brandon Brooks, David DeCastro, Ali Marpet, and Brandon Scherff as a rookie with a 79.7 offensive grade. He followed up the promising year with a 91.2 grade, which only trailed Brooks’ 92.8. Nelson came back to Earth in 2020, finishing fourth among guards with an 86.2 (minimum 300 snaps).
Nelson is poised for another dominant campaign with bell cow back Jonathan Taylor running behind him. Hopefully Colts fans see Nelson in pads for Indy’s season opener.
11. George Kittle, TE (2) San Francisco 49ers
Previous Rank: 10
Kittle entered the 2020 season as the best tight end in football. His activity and power as a blocker separated him from Travis Kelce and earned some comparisons to Rob Gronkowski. Kittle deserved the top spot last year, especially considering he posted a 95.0 PFF grade in 2019 and held the record for receiving yards in a season by a tight end.
Things didn’t go Kittle’s way in 2020. He and San Francisco suffered multiple setbacks, which resulted in the All-Pro missing eight games and the 49ers missing the playoffs. Kittle still averaged six receptions and 79.3 receiving yards per game, which ranked 12th in the NFL. He was on pace for 1,268 yards in a 16-game season.
The 49ers know they have a generational talent at tight end, which is why they gave Kittle a five-year $75 million extension last August. Unfortunately, the Iowa product could take a similar career path to Gronkowski, missing significant playing time every few years. He’s already missed ten games over the past two years.
10. Davante Adams, WR (1) Green Bay Packers
Previous Rank: 11
There’s plenty to unpack when it comes to ranking the NFL’s best wide receivers. DeAndre Hopkins is the most consistent, Tyreek Hill is the most explosive, Julio Jones is this era’s best, Stefon Diggs is the reigning yardage king, and Michael Thomas is one year removed from becoming the only receiver other than Jerry Rice to win the Offensive Player of the Year award.
Adams succeeded in becoming the NFL’s best wide receiver last season, despite the jumble of players already in place. The 28-year-old capitalized on Aaron Rodgers’ MVP season, snagging 115 passes for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns in only 14 games. Based on his averages, Adams could’ve captured the triple crown if he played 16 games.
Rodgers and his top receiver have a special bond that culminated in an astonishing performance last year. The odds say Adams and his quarterback will take a step back in 2021, but that doesn’t mean they can’t have dominant years. The Green Bay duo earned the benefit of the doubt.
9. Khalil Mack, EDGE (2) Chicago Bears
Previous Rank: 22
Mack hasn’t recorded ten or more sacks since 2018, but that doesn’t mean he’s dropped off. The 30-year-old former Defensive Player of the Year was a Second-Team All-Pro for the Associated Press and a First-Team All-Pro for PFF in 2020. Mack is still one of the league’s most dominant players and an easy future Hall of Famer.
The Bears aren’t anywhere near the defense they were when Mack arrived in Chicago three years ago. Even as the pillars of Chicago’s franchise age and fall around him, Mack remains a stabilizing force. He’s never posted a PFF grade below 86.0, and his 92.3 this past season tied his career-high (which came in his Defensive Player of the Year season).
Mack led all edge defenders in PFF grading this past season primarily because of his intense run defense. The Buffalo product is as well-rounded as they come and takes great pride in hunting running backs, unlike some star pass rushers who only focus on sacks.
8. Josh Allen, QB (4) Buffalo Bills
Previous Rank: 12
Allen never came close to cracking the top 300, let alone the top 200 during his first two NFL seasons. He authored a historic turnaround in 2020, flipping the script on his millions of doubters. Allen completed 69.2% of his attempts for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, and ten interceptions. His 107.2 passer rating only put him behind Mahomes, Rodgers, and Watson.
Buffalo deserves a ton of credit for putting Allen in the right position to succeed, but the Wyoming quarterback displayed incredible resiliency considering his disastrous debut seasons. Those high-level competitive traits led to Allen signing a six-year, $258 million contract extension in August. Only Mahomes makes more money per year.
Allen’s 90.9 PFF grade finished fifth among all qualified quarterbacks. For perspective, he scored a 64.2 in 2019, which ranked 29th, one spot behind Mitchell Trubisky.
The Bills plan on unseating Kansas City as AFC Champions. They’ll have a chance if Allen repeats his historic success.
7. Derrick Henry, RB (1) Tennessee Titans
Previous Rank: 4
In the modern era, NFL teams rarely build their offenses or mentalities around running backs, but the Titans are all-in on Henry’s game-changing qualities. It took several years for Henry to become Tennessee’s starter. Even his 2018 season wasn’t that impressive because over half of his yards came in the season’s final four games. That all changed in 2019.
Tennessee traded for Ryan Tannehill and rode Henry for a league-leading 303 carries two years ago. That year also marked Arthur Smith’s first year as the team’s offensive coordinator. Henry ran for 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns, capturing his first triple crown before gaining 446 yards on 83 carries in the playoffs.
Henry repeated as the triple crown winner this past season in dominant fashion He carried the ball 378 times for 17 touchdowns and joined the elite 2,000-rushing yard club. The Associated Press rewarded Henry with 32 of the 50 Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) votes. He’s the fourth running back to win the OPOY award in the past decade.
Most running backs begin slowing down by the end of their rookie contracts, but Henry is a physical anomaly. He’s the size of an old school middle linebacker with the speed of a tight end and the physicality of a fullback. Don’t doubt Henry’s ability to remain running back royalty for years to come.
6. T.J. Watt, EDGE (1) Pittsburgh Steelers
Previous Rank: 6
Watt remains in search of his first DPOY award. The 26-year-old finished second in the voting last year, losing 20-27 to Aaron Donald. Watt came close to winning the award in 2019 too, finishing in third place with ten votes. While he hasn’t won an official award yet, Watt was an Associated Press and PFF First-Team All-Pro in 2019 and 2020.
Steelers fans loved the potential they saw in Watt during his rookie season. The 30th pick from the 2017 NFL Draft built on his seven-sack rookie campaign with a Pro Bowl year in 2018. After only four years, Watt has 49 sacks, 17 forced fumbles, and one sack title. He was PFF’s highest-graded edge rusher in 2019 and only trailed Khalil Mack in 2020.
Watt doesn’t possess the same freakishly large frame as his older brother, but he’s just as dynamic. The youngest Watt is a menace in the running game and constantly looks for ways to get his hands on passes. The Wisconsin product has four interceptions and 25 passes defensed during his career.
Donald is the only defender in the NFL better than Watt.
5. Tom Brady, QB (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Previous Rank: 5
As crazy as it sounds, there are some people who would put Brady atop the pedestal as the best player in the NFL, and they’re not entirely wrong. He led Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl victory with a torn MCL and looked like an MVP candidate in the regular season. Keep in mind, Brady turned 44 years old in August.
Last season, Brady threw for 4,633 yards (his most since 2015), 40 touchdowns (most since 2007), and 12 interceptions (most since 2011). He also finished with a 102.2 passer rating and a 72.5 QBR. It’s not exaggerating to say that’s unheard of for a then 43-year-old. Yes, Brady had an excellent supporting cast and coaching staff, but the Bucs don’t go 11-5 without him.
Brady posted a 92.4 offensive grade in 2020, which only trailed Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson. The offensive explosion in Tampa marked an 11.9-point leap from Brady’s 80.5 offensive grade in 2019. That’s the largest increase in grading for Brady since he returned in 2009 after only attempting 11 passes in 2008.
Father Time knocks on everyone’s door, but even he seems hesitant to approach the pantheon Brady resides in. We’ll see if pick No. 199 can produce another vintage performance.
4. Travis Kelce, TE (1) Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Rank: 7
Kittle set the record for receiving yards by a tight end with a 1,377-yard campaign in 2018. It didn’t stand for long. With Kittle battling injuries for most of last season, Kelce came roaring back and retook his spot as the game’s best tight end. In 15 games, the former third-round pick recorded 105 receptions, 1,416 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
Kelce came close to challenging Diggs for the receiving crown too. Diggs led the NFL with 1,535 yards while Kelce finished in second place, but he appeared in one less game than Buffalo’s dynamic superstar. Kelce also finished fifth in receptions and tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns during his historic campaign.
The Associated Press recognized Kelce’s year with a First-Team All-Pro selection and three votes for the Offensive Player of the Year award. Only Allen, Henry, Mahomes, and Rodgers tied or received more votes than Kelce.
3. Aaron Rodgers, QB (2) Green Bay Packers
Previous Rank: 3
It’s no secret that Rodgers is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in NFL history. After several down seasons, by his standards, Rodgers authored arguably the best season of his career in 2020. The 37-year-old led the league in completion percentage (70.7%), passing touchdowns (48), passer rating (121.5), QBR (84.4), and had the lowest interception percentage (1.0%).
PFF grading supports that Rodgers is coming off his best year yet. His 94.5 offensive grade led all offensive players by a significant margin. Aaron Donald also posted a 94.5 overall grade, which was the gold standard for the 2020 season. Barring any significant setbacks, Rodgers should put together another competitive run in 2021.
The Packers have one of the better collections of offensive talent in the NFL. Davante Adams is the league’s best receiver, Aaron Jones is a top-ten running back, and David Bakhtiari always competes for the top tackle spot. Perhaps that crew can help Rodgers win his second Super Bowl title.
2. Patrick Mahomes, QB (1) Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Rank: 2
There’s no doubt that Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, even if Rodgers had a better 2020 campaign. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2018, Mahomes has finished second, sixth, and fourth in PFF grading among quarterbacks with 100 or more drop backs.
Brady, Rodgers, and Russell Wilson also finished among the top ten quarterbacks in each of the past three years, but none of them averaged as high of a finishing position as Mahomes. The closest of the three (Rodgers) averaged a fifth-place finish, while Mahomes averaged fourth.
It’s worth mentioning that Mahomes has 114 touchdowns and only 24 interceptions during his three years as a full-time starter. For reference, Rodgers tossed 112 touchdowns and 25 interceptions during his statistical three-year peak. However, Rodgers was already 26 going on 27 at the start of that time frame. Mahomes is still 25.
Since 2018, Mahomes has second, seventh, and third-place finishes among quarterbacks in passer rating and first, second, and second-place finishes in QBR. This is his era, even if the guys winning Super Bowls and MVPs are more than a decade older than him.
1. Aaron Donald, IDL (1) Los Angeles Rams
Previous Rank: 1
No player dominates his position or the game quite like Donald. He’s amassed 85.5 sacks seven seasons into his career and won three of the past four DPOY awards. Quarterbacks play a larger role in winning than defensive linemen, but there’s a new best quarterback every season. That’s not the case when it comes to defense.
Donald led the NFL in PFF defensive grading in each of the past five seasons (minimum 100 snaps). Only six defenders with at least 100 snaps can say they topped Donald in PFF grading for a season since the future Hall of Famer entered the NFL in 2014. Miraculously, Donald hasn’t finished a year with a grade below 90.0 in his career.
The Associated Press and PFF view Donald in the same dominant lens, selecting him as a First-Team All-Pro in each of the past six years. The former 13th overall pick has a chance at going down as the best defender in league history.