NFL Top 200 Players of 2021 No. 40-21
Part 9
The NFL Top 200 predicts the best players for the 2021 NFL season using past success, projections for development and regression, injuries, and supporting casts. We’re only a day away from the final edition of this series. Make sure to check out the released rankings before digging into today’s slate of 20 names.
There’s no way to project exactly how the NFL season could play out, but these rankings attempt to identify players primed for breakout campaigns or in situations where they might take a step back. You’ll notice the concepts of rebound years and regression appear several times.
We have no scientific method to compare players that lineup at different positions, so this list is highly subjective. I’ve included the positional ranking of each player in parentheses to counteract this cross-positional subjectivity and give readers a better understanding of how I believe players stack up against their competition.
Please direct any comments or concerns to @Sam_Teets33 on Twitter.
(Statistics come from ESPN, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, and Pro Football Reference)
*Indicates rookie
Cracking the Top 40
40. Ronnie Stanley, OT (4) Baltimore Ravens
Previous Rank: 36
Baltimore used the sixth overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft on Stanley. The Notre Dame product hasn’t disappointed. Stanley was PFF’s Pass Blocker of the Year in 2019 after posting an astonishing 93.3 grade in that area. According to Sam Monson, there are only four better pass blocking grades at tackle during the PFF era.
Monson notes in a recent article ranking the league’s top 50 players that Stanley has back-to-back campaigns with pass blocking grades over 90.0. The stud left tackle only gave up 16 pressures over his last 719 snaps in pass protection, which is absurd. However, the 27-year-old still only has one season with a grade over 80.0.
Stanley suffered a season-ending injury after only six appearances last season. The Ravens remain hopeful that he’ll return for Week 1.
39. Deshaun Watson, QB (6) Houston Texans
Previous Rank: 8
There are 22 civil lawsuits alleging sexual assault or misconduct against Watson. That’s the main storyline surrounding the superstar quarterback. So, why does he crack the top 200 at all? The American court system and NFL are responsible for determining if Watson is guilty and setting his punishment. This article won’t try to pass judgment either way. We have to wait.
At the same time, I must reiterate how disgusting sexual abuse and sexual assault are. People who commit such acts deserve no fame or fortune. Those who lie and attempt to shift blame onto victims and people who falsely accuse others of committing sexual abuse or assault don’t deserve their gifts.
Unfortunately, some civil cases take years to work through the courts and often end in settlements. Look no further than Antonio Brown’s recent experience. Britney Taylor’s case against him lasted from September 2019 to April 2021 before ending in a settlement. It could be this time next year before any party in the Watson lawsuit gets closure.
It’s doubtful Watson suits up for Houston, even if he avoids the Commissioner’s Exempt List. The 25-year-old asked for a trade over six months ago, and at the time, he had no intention of suiting up for the Texans again. Watson appeared at several of Houston’s practices recently, but his future with the organization remains murky.
Watson led the NFL in passing yards last season with 4,823. He also completed 70.2% of his attempts for 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Watson has a 104.5 career passer rating after 54 appearances. His 92.5 grade from PFF last year ranked second in the NFL, only trailing MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Watson was a top-ten player in the last edition of the top 200, but his questionable availability for 2021 led to a significant drop. He easily could’ve gone lower, but it’s hard to balance his talent with the serious situations he’s embroiled in.
38. Julio Jones, WR (7) Tennessee Titans
Previous Rank: 28
Jones is the most dominant wide receiver of the post-Calvin Johnson era, but his time as a top-five receiver is likely at an end. The 32-year-old battled injuries last season and only appeared in nine games. He averaged 85.7 receiving yards per game but only finished the season with 771, his fewest since 2013.
Tennessee jumped on the opportunity to acquire Jones this offseason. The Titans already have a budding star in A.J. Brown. Those two are likely the best wide receiver duo in the NFL by a good margin. However, fans should adjust their expectations for Jones moving forward. He won’t be a yardage monster anymore.
The Titans and Ryan Tannehill attempted the third-fewest passes in the NFL last year with 485. In comparison, Matt Ryan attempted 384 passes during the nine games Jones started and finished the year with over 600 passes for the third year in a row. That drop in attempts could lead to fewer targets and declining volume statistical production for Jones.
Moving to Tennessee and seeing fewer passes don’t take away from Jones’ ability to dominate games.
37. Nick Bosa, EDGE (5) San Francisco 49ers
Previous Rank: 21
The younger Bosa quickly joined his brother as one of the NFL’s best pass rushers. Nick won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award in 2019 after he totaled nine sacks, 47 tackles, and over a dozen tackles for loss. Unfortunately, Bosa tore his ACL in San Francisco’s second game last season. He missed the rest of the year.
San Francisco fans are in for a treat, assuming Bosa continues his dominance from 2019. The Ohio St. product posted an 86.7 PFF grade as a rookie, which ranked 11th among edge rushers with at least 300 snaps. For reference, that’s a higher grade than Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Khalil Mack earned.
Several players that ranked above Bosa, including teammate Arik Armstead, Jadeveon Clowney, Carlos Dunlap, and Justin Houston, won’t continue competing with the younger edge rusher for a top spot. He could easily walk into a top-seven performance this season.
36. Xavien Howard, CB (3) Miami Dolphins
Previous Rank: 25
Howard took center stage in 2020, leading the NFL in interceptions for the second time in three seasons. Injuries remain a concern for the 28-year-old, especially after a knee injury that cost him most of the 2019 season. However, when he’s healthy, Howard is a turnover machine.
The Baylor product led the NFL with seven interceptions in 2018 despite only playing in 12 games. He followed up the performance in 2020 by intercepting ten passes and batting away 20 more. Both of those totals led the league. Howard received First-Team All-Pro selections across the board for his outstanding campaign.
Howard’s highly paid running mate Byron Jones got lost in the shuffle last season. The former Cowboy had arguably the worst season of his career, including the forgettable seasons he spent at safety. The Dolphins could blank most of the offenses in the AFC East if Jones gets his game back to an All-Pro level because everyone knows Howard means business.
35. A.J. Brown, WR (6) Tennessee Titans
Previous Rank: 80
According to PFF, Brown is one of the league’s premier wide receivers. He earned a 90.1 offensive grade in 2020, which ranked third among all players at his position. There’s a viable argument that the 24-year-old is the most talented receiver in the NFL, but it’s unlikely he’ll have the statistical dominance to claim that title.
Tennessee threw the ball 485 times last year, the third-fewest attempts by any team. Only Baltimore and New England attempted fewer passes. In comparison, teams like Buffalo, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay attempted at least 596 passes. Brown won’t see the volume of targets needed to justify a high-ranking All-Pro selection.
Overlooking the targets issue, Brown is extremely physically gifted. His agility, explosiveness, play strength, route running, and speed are all elite for his frame. Last year, Brown generated 70 receptions, 1,075 yards, and 11 touchdowns on 106 targets. Imagine the kind of damage he could cause with 130 or more targets.
34. DeForest Buckner, IDL (4) Indianapolis Colts
Previous Rank: 26
It took Buckner several years to establish himself as one of the league’s premier defensive tackles, but he’s firmly inside the top tier now (assuming we don’t put Aaron Donald in one all by himself). Bucker was an All-Pro for the Associated Press in 2019 and 2020, and he made his debut All-Pro team for PFF last year.
The former seventh overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft showed flashes during his first two seasons before taking a massive leap in 2018. Over the past three years, Buckner has 29 sacks, four forced fumbles, six fumble recoveries, and about 187 tackles. He’s posted a PFF defensive grade of 78.8 or higher in each of those years.
Buckner took his game to another level in 2020, becoming arguably the second-best player on a talented Colts team. The 27-year-old defensive tackle earned an 89.7 defensive grade from PFF, which ranked fourth among all interior defensive linemen.
33. Lavonte David, LB (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Previous Rank: 38
PFF’s Mike Renner said on an episode of the recently rechristened “Tailgate” podcast with Austin Gayle that he thinks David should make the Pro Football Hall of Fame. It’s getting harder to argue against David’s candidacy. He was the third-best linebacker of this past generation, behind Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner, and is still an All-Pro.
David is 31 years old, but he played over 1,000 defensive snaps last year en route to a Second-Team All-Pro selection for the Associated Press. His 81.5 defensive grade ranked among the top five for linebackers (minimum 300 snaps) for the third time in the past four years.
David is one of the league’s best coverage linebackers, a massive accomplishment for a player who entered the NFL nine years ago. Very few linebackers, including David’s teammate Devin White, come close to matching the veteran’s versatility.
32. Cameron Heyward, IDL (3) Pittsburgh Steelers
Previous Rank: 37
Heyward started out as an average defensive end before changing his listed position to defensive tackle, where he’s developed into a borderline top-30 player. Heyward’s breakout campaign came in 2017. He totaled 12 sacks and 45 tackles in 15 games, earning First-Team All-Pro honors from the Associated Press.
Heyward claimed First-Team All-Pro status from the Associated Press and PFF in 2019 before taking home Second-Team selections from both outlets last year. While the Ohio St. product didn’t make an All-Pro team in 2018, he still recorded what was then a career second-best eight sacks.
Since the start of 2017, Heyward has 33 sacks and roughly 233 tackles, 83 of which came in 2019. The 32-year-old has overtaken other veteran interior defensive linemen, like Fletcher Cox and Akiem Hicks. While those players are still effective despite regression, Heyward is still getting better as he ages.
Heyward recorded PFF grades over 89.0 in three of his past four seasons. Aaron Donald and Chris Jones are the only other qualified interior defensive linemen who fall into that category.
31. Justin Jefferson, WR (5) Minnesota Vikings
Previous Rank: 51
Minnesota lucked into taking Jefferson with the 22nd pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, largely because the Philadelphia Eagles decided to take Jalen Reagor instead of the 22-year-old All-Pro. Jefferson had one of the best rookie seasons of all-time, regardless of his position. The LSU product caught 88 passes for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns.
Jefferson’s volume statistics turn heads, but fans often overlook that he caught over 70.0% of his targets. There aren’t many top options in the league that cross that mark. Depending on where you look, Julio Jones only accomplished the feat one to three times. Antonio Brown did it four or five times, including his rookie season where he saw under 20 targets.
Jefferson earned a 90.4 offensive grade from PFF for his debut campaign. That ranked second among all receivers, only trailing Davante Adams’ 92.2.
Jefferson should comfortably qualify as a top ten receiver, even if his totals regress in 2021.
30. Alvin Kamara, RB (4) New Orleans Saints
Previous Rank: 42
Kamara had the worst season of his career in 2019, averaging below 5.5 yards per touch for the first time. The four-time Pro Bowler still finished the season with 1,330 yards from scrimmage, but his scoring was down and fumbling was up. Luckily, Kamara turned things around in 2020, setting career-highs with 1,688 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns.
It’s hard to hold Kamara side-by-side with most traditional running backs. He’s never carried the ball more than 194 times in a single season and averaged over 102 targets during his first four years in the NFL. Yet, Kamara is one of the most consistent and productive running backs to enter the league in a decade.
Drew Brees’ retirement could threaten Kamara’s efficiency and productivity, especially considering the volatility of New Orleans’ current quarterback options.
Oddly enough, while Kamara barely cracked PFF’s ten highest-graded running backs for 2020, he was comfortably in the top ten among all offensive players in receiving grading (at least 20 targets).
29. Bobby Wagner, LB (2) Seattle Seahawks
Previous Rank: 32
With Luke Kuechly gone, Wagner is the only active linebacker that’s an easy bet to make the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Last season, the 31-year-old picked up his fifth consecutive and sixth total First-Team All-Pro selection from the Associated Press. He’s made five PFF All-Pro teams throughout his career too.
Wagner isn’t as dominant in coverage now as he was in his late 20s, but the Utah St. product still ranks among the game’s better pass defenders at his position. In an era where linebackers get cooked by offenses constantly, Wagner combines the precision and strength needed to stop the run with the agility and intellect to prevent big plays in the passing game.
Wagner began missing more of his tackles over the past two years, but the All-Decade Team member rarely let anyone escape his grasp during the first seven years of his career.
Speaking of rare, many linebackers can’t continue playing the game at a high level past their age 33 season. Wagner is inching close to that mark. The Seahawks hope they can capitalize on a few more prime seasons from their defensive captain and get back to the Super Bowl.
28. David Bakhtiari, OT (2) Green Bay Packers
Previous Rank: 24
Bakhtiari was already one of the league’s best pass protectors by his second season. The soon-to-be 30-year-old isn’t an elite force in the running game, but only Joe Thomas compares to him in pass protection over the past decade. Bakhtiari posted pass blocking grades over 90.0 in four of the past five years and has seven consecutive years with that grade over 85.0.
Last season was Bakhtiari’s best by PFF standards. He posted a career-high 91.8 offensive grade, which only trailed Trent Williams’ 91.9 for the league’s best mark. The former fourth-round pick also finished second among qualified tackles in 2018 and 2017.
Bakhtiari ranks second among tackles on the top 200. He’s returning from a torn ACL, which could cost him the start of the regular season, but Bakhtiari is so dominant that the injury didn’t alter his placement on this list too much.
27. Dalvin Cook, RB (3) Minnesota Vikings
Previous Rank: 50
Cook dashed for 4,464 yards and 46 touchdowns during his three years with Florida St. before falling to the second-round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Everyone knew Cook was extremely talented, but concerns outside his immediate control led to the second-round tumble.
Almost nothing went right for Cook during his first two seasons. He only played in 15 games and struggled to build week-to-week momentum. Fortunately, the injuries subsided for most of the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Cook still missed four games over the past two years, but fans can’t tell that by looking at his production.
Cook ran for 1,557 yards (111.2 yards per game) and 16 touchdowns this past season. He also wrapped up the year with 1,918 yards from scrimmage. All of those totals and averages ranked second in the league, only trailing Derrick Henry. Cook has 3,572 yards from scrimmage and 30 total touchdowns since the start of 2019.
Surprisingly, the Associated Press hasn’t selected Cook for an All-Pro team yet. However, PFF gave the 26-year-old a Second-Team nod this past year.
26. Chris Jones, IDL (2) Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Rank: 44
The Chiefs are a team composed of stars with filler pieces in between. Jones started his career as a replaceable second-round pick before quickly developing into one of the game’s premier interior pass rushers. The 27-year-old has 32 sacks over the past three years, including 15.5 from 2018.
Jones hasn’t earned a PFF defensive grade below an 88.3 since his rookie season. Fletcher Cox and Aaron Donald are the only defensive tackles from the past decade that get after quarterbacks the way Jones does. Perhaps Geno Atkins had a few years at that level during his prime, but Cox, Donald, and Jones easily separate themselves.
The Associated Press and PFF selected Jones for All-Pro teams in 2018 and 2020. This year, PFF gave him a First-Team spot because his 90.3 defensive grade only trailed Donald among all interior defensive linemen.
Jones is the second-highest ranked interior defensive lineman on this list, but it’s not by a wide margin. He routinely leaves a lot to be desired as a run defender, an area in which DeForest Buckner and Cameron Heyward thrive.
25. Ryan Ramczyk, OT (3) New Orleans Saints
Previous Rank: 34
Ramczyk was PFF’s Run Blocker of the Year for the 2019 NFL season, and his 90.8 grade ranked first among all tackles with at least 300 snaps. Only three other tackles finished with grades over 85.0. However, Ramczyk took a step back in 2020 as injuries caused New Orleans’ offense to falter.
Ramczyk finished 14th among tackles with an 81.5 grade last season. He gave up the most pressures of his career but still hasn’t dipped below the 80.0 mark at any point in his time with New Orleans. The Saints need a massive performance from the fifth-year tackle to continue their streak of four consecutive playoff appearances.
After only four seasons, Ramczyk has one First-Team and two Second-Team All-Pro nominations from the Associated Press under his belt. The Wisconsin product is already 27 years old, but he could put together a Hall of Fame résumé at this pace.
24. Fred Warner, LB (1) San Francisco 49ers
Previous Rank: 27
Four or five linebackers have legitimate claims to being the NFL’s best at any given time, but Warner was hands down the top dog in 2020. In a league where offenses routinely expose linebackers with mismatches and complicated schemes, Warner dominated the competition. His insane coverage skills far outclassed any other linebacker.
Warner earned First-Team All-Pro honors from the Associated Press and PFF. He finished the year with an 88.6 defensive grade. For perspective, the next highest grade among linebackers with at least 100 snaps was 83.3. Only five qualified linebackers had grades over 80.0.
The 49ers have an interesting collection of talent on defense that could return the franchise to its winning ways. Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa are still getting better, and San Francisco is waiting for a leap from Javon Kinlaw. Assuming everyone stays healthy, Warner should benefit heavily from playing behind that unit.
23. Christian McCaffrey, RB (2) Carolina Panthers
Previous Rank: 19
A black cloud looms over McCaffrey as he prepares for his fifth season in the NFL. We’ve seen more than half a dozen running backs hit a wall and suffer career meltdowns by their mid-20s. Todd Gurley fell off a cliff after totaling 1,229 touches in his first four seasons. Le'Veon Bell reached that point after 1,541 touches, while Jordan Howard only got to 850.
Jay Ajayi, Devonta Freeman, David Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Doug Martin, and Alfred Morris are other running backs that burned through their stardom after only a few years.
McCaffrey suffered a high ankle sprain last year, which contributed to him only playing three games. He has a significantly different build and style than most of the running backs listed in the preceding paragraphs, but the Stanford product has plenty of mileage for a 25-year-old. McCaffrey has 1,002 touches in only 51 games.
The Associated Press pegged McCaffrey as a First-Team All-Pro the last time he was healthy. That season, McCaffrey ran 287 times for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns and caught 116 passes for 1,005 yards and four more scores. Hopefully, fans see that version of the league’s most versatile running back in 2021.
22. Russell Wilson, QB (5) Seattle Seahawks
Previous Rank: 17
Wilson seemed destined to claim his first MVP after Seattle’s initial seven games. Finally, the 32-year-old could cement himself as a Hall of Famer and the bridge between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. However, Wilson’s season followed the same path as his other MVP hopeful campaigns. Everything collapsed in the year’s final games.
Wilson completed 71.48% of his throws for 26 touchdowns and six interceptions through his first seven games. During that time, he only posted a passer rating below 100.0 once. Cries of “Let Russ cook” showered down from the stands and swept across the internet as Seahawks fans rejoiced. Their euphoria was short-lived.
The final nine games weren’t kind to Wilson. He completed 66.56% of his passes for 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Only three of those games resulted in passer ratings over 100.0.
Wilson tied Ryan Tannehill with a 90.3 PFF grade, the sixth-best among quarterbacks with 100 or more drop backs.
21. DeAndre Hopkins, WR (4) Arizona Cardinals
Previous Rank: 30
Hopkins is one of several future Hall of Fame wide receivers still capable of wrecking defenses. The Hail Murray is only the latest example of Nuk’s game-changing abilities, and, at 29 years old, the Clemson product could have three or four more 1,000-yard campaigns. He’s already at 747 receptions and 10,009 receiving yards after only eight seasons.
The Cardinals got Hopkins in an absolute bargain with Bill O'Brien, giving themselves the best receiver in a division featuring multiple other star pass-catchers. Hopkins is averaging 1,380 yards per season over the past four years, and that average could continue climbing if Kyler Murray meets expectations in 2021.
Hopkins is already a Hall of Famer in PFF’s eyes. He’s strung together four consecutive years as a top-seven receiver, including three top-four finishes.