NFL 2021 Quarterback Power Rankings Week 1
Mahomes tops the list
I’ve written a quarterback power ranking series each week for the past two seasons. I won’t commit to the series becoming a weekly staple on Sports Talk with Sam Teets, but we’ll at least provide a season opening edition. These are the best quarterbacks in the NFL today.
I used my NFL Top 200 series as a template for these rankings. Any quarterbacks that appeared on the top 200 received the same positional spot on this article. The first 18 quarterbacks all made appearances on the top 200. Everyone after that is new.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes proved this past season that he didn’t peak in 2018. The soon-to-be 26-year-old has to wait another few months before possibly claiming another MVP, but he was ridiculously good for Kansas City in 2020. Mahomes set a career-high with an 82.9 QBR and tied Aaron Rodgers for the lowest interception percentage in the NFL.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers took home his third regular season MVP last year after perhaps the best performance of his career. The 37-year-old was locked in with Davante Adams all year and even turned Robert Tonyan into a recognizable name. Despite his 48 touchdowns and heroics, Green Bay once again fell one game short of the Super Bowl.
3. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Father Time is still looking for Brady. The 44-year-old battled through an MCL injury last season on his way to winning his seventh Super Bowl. On a Buccaneers team loaded with stud pass catchers, Brady tossed 40 touchdowns and posted a 102.2 passer rating. Somehow, Tampa Bay didn’t lose any significant offensive weapons this offseason.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
A year ago, Allen was already appearing on lists of busts from recent draft classes. The Wyoming product made all of his doubters, including me, eat their words with a near MVP-level campaign. Buffalo hopes Allen can reproduce his historic turnaround season in 2021 because the team has a legitimate shot at winning the Super Bowl.
5. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Wilson authored several half-MVP performances over the past four years. He just can’t seem to finish a season strong. However, the 32-year-old has 30 or more passing touchdowns in five of the past six years, including a career-high 40 in 2020. Wilson is a future Hall of Famer in his prime.
6. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Watson is surely a controversial inclusion on this list. Houston already announced Tyrod Taylor as the Week 1 starter, meaning Watson still plans on sitting out until he’s traded. The Clemson product is also facing over a dozen sexual assault allegations and an FBI investigation. He only appears here because of his spot on the NFL Top 200.
7. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Tannehill benefits heavily from playing in a talent-rich offense with the game’s best running back. However, his supporting cast doesn’t account for the 33-year-old’s entire statistical tear that started in 2019. After wasting away in Miami, Tannehill is thriving in Tennessee alongside A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry, and now Julio Jones.
8. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson had a strong showing last season, but his pure passing numbers took a significant hit. The former MVP is better than most running backs on the ground, but there’s still plenty of room to grow as a passer. Perhaps Baltimore’s expanded wide receiver corps can help with that.
9. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott is battling back from a devastating leg injury last year and some shoulder problems this offseason. The Cowboys weren’t winning many games last season, but the offense was posting historic passing numbers. Even if Prescott’s averages dip significantly, he could still come out firing on a record-setting pace.
10. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert smashed records during his rookie season despite not starting Week 1 and not knowing he would start Week 2 until right before the game. The Chargers struggled finishing games last year, but changing the coaching staff might sort that issue out. Los Angeles gave Herbert several new starting offensive linemen this offseason, which boosts his projection.
11. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan hasn’t sniffed his former MVP status since the end of 2018, but he’s still a reliable quarterback. Losing Julio Jones could cause the 36-year-old’s decline to hasten, but he also has Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts to fall back on. They’re both projected as elite options at their respective positions.
12. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Carr never developed into the MVP candidate some people envisioned him as six years ago, but he’s still one of the game’s most consistent passers. Carr completed 68.9% of his passes for 67 touchdowns and only 27 interceptions over the past three years. That’s pretty impressive when you consider what he’s working with.
13. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
NFL fans love to hate Cousins. He deserves some of it. The former fourth-round pick struggles to win big games and was abysmal in the season’s opening weeks last year before pulling a complete 180. Cousins averaged a 113.6 passer rating in Minnesota’s final ten games after throwing ten interceptions in his first six outings.
14. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Mayfield caught fire down the stretch for Cleveland, but he hasn’t put together a top-ten season start to finish yet. With the possibility of a contract extension looming, it’s now or never for Mayfield to prove he’s capable of serving as the offense’s engine.
15. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals might’ve already ruined Burrow because the rumors coming out of Cincinnati’s camp about the second-year quarterback aren’t positive. Burrow dominated at LSU and had several decent outings during his rookie season. He could fall as low as 21 in this list, but I’m banking on the immense talent we saw in college.
16. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Murray is right around average despite his dual-threat ability. The former Heisman winner made a significant jump in his second season, but there’s a long way to go before he enters elite atmosphere. Arizona’s offense as a whole hasn’t looked smooth during the Kliff Kingsbury era.
17. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford isn’t a bad quarterback, but he’s made some exaggerated jumps up other rankings in recent years. Outside of the 2019 season, he’s never posted a passer rating over 100.0 during a year. However, there’s an argument for putting Stafford in the top 14 because he’s working with Sean McVay, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods.
18. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Some analysts viewed Lawrence as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. He experienced mixed results in the preseason, but he’s got several dynamic receiving options. Jacksonville’s offensive line is Lawrence’s biggest limiting factor during his rookie year.
19. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roethlisberger threw for 33 touchdowns last year, but his aging arm and a lackluster offensive line limited Pittsburgh’s offense. Unless the line takes a huge step forward or Big Ben’s arm returns, he won’t finish the season in the top half of quarterbacks. His depth of target and ability to hit big plays weren’t there late last year.
20. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington Football Team
The ultimate old-fashioned gunslinger, Fitzpatrick lives and dies game-by-game on his daring throws. Some days they make him a hero. Other times he plays his team out of games with wild turnovers. Fitzpatrick was a solid quarterback over the past three years, but he’ll likely get pulled from games once or twice during the year.
21. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
The Saints kept Winston off of the field for most of 2020. The former first overall pick sat behind Drew Brees, only attempting 11 passes all year. Sean Payton is banking on the 27-year-old having learned ball security from Brees. Winston is an extremely talented quarterback, but he threw 30 interceptions in 2019. That’s not acceptable.
22. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Garoppolo performed well enough in the preseason to hold off Trey Lance. The 29-year-old isn’t an elite quarterback, but he’s deserving of a starting job. Garoppolo posted a 102.0 passer rating during his only healthy season in San Francisco, but he’s only appeared in more than six games once in his career.
23. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Jones dazzled during the preseason and training camp, leading to New England boldly releasing former starter Cam Newton. Jones’ physical traits lend themselves to the offense New England ran during the Tom Brady era. He’s coming off one of the best years in college football history and has a shot at taking the league by storm.
24. Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts
Wentz completely mentally collapsed in 2020, leading to the Eagles sending him to Indianapolis. Reuniting with Frank Reich and getting away from the mess in Philly could do wonders for Wentz’s confidence, but he’s working with a short leash from now on.
25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones didn’t look good during his first two seasons in New York. Fans expecting a Josh Allen sized leap from the former sixth overall pick shouldn’t hold their breath. Jones is an underrated runner and deep-ball passer, but he commits far too many turnovers and mental errors.
26. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Fans love to trash Goff because he was too limited to take full advantage of McVay’s offense in Los Angeles. However, Goff is a serviceable starting quarterback. He’s well above the Blake Bortles’ and Jacoby Brissett’s of the world but is far from an elite option.
27. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tagovailoa was one of the best college quarterbacks in recent history, but he struggled as a rookie. Miami’s offense looked limited and passive when the Alabama product took the field in 2020. Hopefully, Tagovailoa gained some confidence this offseason and comes out firing in 2021.
28. Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Wilson was a revelation at BYU last year. The Jets focused on retooling their skill positions and offensive line this offseason, giving the second overall pick plenty to work with. Wilson has all of the physical traits needed to excel in the NFL.
29. Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos
Bridgewater deserves a spot in the mid-20s, but he falls this far because plenty of younger quarterbacks have higher ceilings. Bridgewater is a fine quarterback, but he lacks the big-play ability and staying power of a year-to-year quality starter.
30. Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
Darnold flamed out in New York. While he showed flashes of terrific potential, the former third overall pick hasn’t developed much since his days at USC. Darnold has access to the best collection of weapons he’s had at any point in his career, but Carolina’s offensive line is eerily similar to previous pedestrian Jets fronts.
31. Andy Dalton, Chicago Bears
Dalton is a solid, reliable veteran capable of winning a handful of games each season. However, he lacks the firepower and upside a younger Red Rifle packed in Cincinnati. Injuries and COVID sabotaged Dalton in Dallas, but nothing suggests his stay in Chicago will go any smoother.
32. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
I’m assuming Fields takes over for Dalton by Week 6. Matt Nagy is on his last leg in Chicago, and the front office knows their jobs rest on the rookie performing well. Fields dominated in college, flashing exceptional athleticism and underrated accuracy. We’ll see if that translates to the NFL.
33. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts is a physically gifted quarterback that should give fantasy owners plenty to think about. His mobility and power carry immense upside, but his ball security and placement can get too loose for my liking. At least he can’t do worse than Wentz last year, right?
34. Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans
Houston has the worst roster in the NFL, and Taylor hasn’t started more than three games in a season since 2017. He’s proven nothing outside of his three-year run in Buffalo. If teams viewed Taylor as a viable starter, he would’ve never served as a bridge quarterback in Cleveland and Los Angeles.
35. Gardner Minshew, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles made a significant investment in Hurts, and Howie Roseman built the entire coaching staff around developing the Oklahoma product. However, fans shouldn’t be shocked if Minshew earns a handful of halves and maybe even a few starts. The former sixth-round pick has limited arm talent, but he performed well in stretches for the Jaguars.
36. Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Denver benching Lock in a critical year for head coach Vic Fangio is an indictment against the franchise for drafting him in the first place. The Missouri product is one of the worst quarterbacks that could see starting time this season.