Will Rogers, QB Mississippi State: Offseason 2023 NFL Draft Profile

Rogers was a three-star recruit from Brandon High School in Brandon, Miss. in the class of 2020

Mike Leach’s air raid offense at Mississippi State led to quarterback Will Rogers posting historic numbers in 2021. The rising junior flashed signs of pro potential, despite working in a college offense with limited traits that translate to the NFL. Let’s take a look at Rogers’ profile for the 2023 NFL Draft.

Visit my Twitter account @Sam_Teets33 for more updates and previews of the 2023 NFL Draft Guide.

Will Rogers, QB Mississippi State: 2023 NFL Draft Profile

Classification: Junior quarterback from Brandon, Miss.

Background: Rogers was a three-star recruit from Brandon High School in Brandon, Miss. in the class of 2020. He was the No. 641 recruit according to 247Sports and No. 587 for On3.com. Rogers was an unranked three-star recruit for Rivals. He was an unranked three-star recruit for ESPN with a 77 grade out of 100. Rogers left high school with 9,093 passing yards and 79 touchdown passes. As a high school senior, he completed 246 of 371 passes for 3,572 yards, 38 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. As a junior, he threw for 3,009 yards and 23 touchdowns compared to 2,476 passing yards and 18 touchdowns as a sophomore. Rogers competed in and won the Alabama-Mississippi All-Star Game. He has a brother and sister. Rogers was born on Aug. 19, 2001.

2021 Production: 13 games, 683 attempts, 505 completions, 4,739 yards, 36 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

2020 Production: 9 games, 346 attempts, 239 completions, 1,976 yards, 11 touchdowns, 7 interceptions + 1 rushing touchdown

Injuries & Off-Field: Suffered an AC joint sprain against Alabama (2021) but didn’t miss a game

Awards: N/A

Pros: Time to throw meets NFL parameters, only five fumbles on over 700 drop backs, puts good touch on short to intermediate throws, instances of throwing with anticipation, flashes of spectacular ball placement and accuracy, undeterred by tight windows, threw a touchdown that traveled roughly 45 air yards against Memphis (2021), instances of fully working through progressions and finding the open man, short to intermediate accuracy stands out, ball placement leads his receivers for YAC opportunities, successful back shoulder throws, minimal poor post-snap decisions (he only threw eight interceptions in 683 attempts), pre-snap adjustments show promise

Cons: Mike Leach’s air raid offense doesn’t translate to the NFL, not a threat to run, feet sometimes become stagnant in the pocket, throwing motion involves a bit of a wind up that slows down the release, lacks the mobility to escape pressure, lacks the arm strength to consistently make plays 40+ yards downfield, velocity on throws outside the numbers is inconsistent, too many instances of throwing off his back foot (especially when under pressure), willingness to challenge small windows occasionally backfires, interceptions on the sideline usually occur when he leaves a touch pass short or fails to drive a ball with enough velocity to eliminate driving safeties, burn the Alabama (2021) tape, accuracy crumbles 40+ yards downfield, many of his interceptions came when he failed to account for the safety ranging over to make a play

Overview: Rogers is unofficially listed at 6'2", 210 lbs. The rising junior masterfully executes short to intermediate throws with anticipation and touch. His passes allow wide receivers and tight ends to generate healthy amounts of YAC. Rogers makes some special throws where his accuracy and ball placement shine. He’s feathered multiple throws over a linebacker’s outstretched arm while still keeping the pass short enough to avoid the safety getting involved. Rogers also completed several passes in between three or four defenders while hitting his receivers in stride. He usually makes good decisions with the football and seems to have a good grasp on the mental aspects of the position. Unfortunately, Rogers has limited arm talent that prevents him from consistently unlocking deep areas of the field. He throws off his back foot too often and struggled to eliminate safeties from making plays on his sideline throws. There are some concerns about his ability to consistently put the right velocity on throws. Rogers’ statistical production doesn’t reflect his value as a prospect. His numbers are inflated by Mississippi State’s air raid offense, which called for Rogers to throw the ball over 130 times more than any other SEC quarterback in 2021.

Overall, Rogers is a prime candidate to return to school in 2023. He has more questions to answer than most quarterbacks I scouted this summer. Unfortunately, Mike Leach’s air raid offense places a cap on Rogers’ ceiling because there’s only so much he can showcase in the system. Right now, the Mississippi native’s ceiling is the middle of Day 3.

Role & Scheme Fit: Pocket passer in a spread offensive scheme

Round Projection: Mid Fifth to Early Sixth

Player Comparison: N/A

Submitted: 08-14-22