It’s hard to believe we’re only two weeks away from the 2021 NFL regular season ending. Over the extended weekend, three NFC teams clinched their divisions, and two NFC West franchises punched their tickets to the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs are the only AFC team to have clinched a playoff berth.
The AFC remains wide open, and we’ll see some photo finishes as the more competitive conference crosses the finish line.
Let’s stow the playoff talk for now and turn toward some takeaways from Week 16’s top games and performances, starting with the Bills.
1. Here come Josh Allen and Buffalo
Three weeks ago, the New England Patriots went into Buffalo and took down the Bills with a physical ground attack. The Bills designed their team with one goal in mind: beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately, the roster wasn’t ready for the larger, more physical Patriots. Sean McDermott’s team adjusted quickly and got their revenge in Week 16.
New England’s ground and pound style dominated the first matchup, but Buffalo’s high-flying offense and versatile defensive backs took over this past weekend. Josh Allen led the Bills into Foxborough, and they smacked the Patriots 33-21. Micah Hyde had two interceptions as the Bills held Mac Jones to 145 yards on 14 of 32 attempts.
Buffalo gave Damien Harris and the Pats almost anything they wanted on the ground but cut off the passing attack. That strategy made it impossible for New England to keep pace with the Bills.
After a slow start to 2021 and a dip in the middle of the season, Allen is looking like his elite 2020 self. He was clutch on the ground two weeks ago in an overtime loss to Tampa Bay. This past weekend, he completed 30 of 47 attempts for 314 yards and three touchdowns.
Allen orchestrated a five-minute touchdown drive in the fourth quarter that put Buffalo up by 12 with under three minutes remaining. The Bills should win the NFC East if the 25-year-old continues playing at this level.
2. Joe Burrow over Justin Herbert
I thought Herbert slightly outplayed Burrow when their teams met in Week 13, but Sunday showed the potential for a significant gap to develop between the two rising stars. Herbert and the Chargers lost to Houston as the Pro Bowler passed for 336 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. He took one sack.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow led the Bengals in such a complete slaughter of the Ravens that he might get charged for war crimes. The former Heisman Trophy winner completed 37 of 46 pass attempts (80.43%) for 525 yards (fourth-most in a single game ever) and four touchdowns.
Burrow’s 14 interceptions were one of the major knocks against him in this debate over second-year quarterbacks. However, he and Herbert now have the same number of interceptions (there’s a five-way tie atop the NFL with 14), and many of Burrow’s turnovers resulted from bad luck or mistakes by his supporting cast. Herbert can’t say the same (although he’s certainly gone through some unlucky streaks).
It’s too soon to declare a winner in this quarterback race. Herbert is operating in a new offense with significant limitations (thanks Joe Lombardi), while Burrow also lacks an elite play-caller. The two quarterbacks should get significantly better in year three.
As far as which quarterback is better this season, Burrow is Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded quarterback (91.4). Herbert is third (88.5). I’d gladly take either one of them to quarterback my franchise for the next 15 years.
3. Kyler and Kliff need an intervention
Wake up Arizona, it’s almost time for the playoffs. WAKE. UP.
It’s hard to believe the Cardinals were soaring high with excellent chances to claim the NFC’s top seed just a few weeks ago. Sure, they lost to Green Bay but still went 2-1 with Colt McCoy taking over for the injured Kyler Murray. That was a massive win for the Cardinals, and Murray’s return should’ve swiftly carried Arizona to at least the top seed in their division.
The Cardinals have clinched a playoff berth, but they’ve fallen below Los Angeles in the NFC West standings. Arizona can’t regain the top seed in the conference, and the organization can only hope to catch the momentum that led to its 10-2 start.
Murray is 1-3 since returning from his injury, including three consecutive losses. The Cardinals understandably lost to the Rams in Week 14 but followed the defeat by inexplicable coming out flatfooted against Detroit. They compounded their problems by failing to take advantage of a strong defensive performance against the Colts.
The Cardinals don’t have a great defense. Entering the year, we never anticipated they would. However, we expected the offense to cover any defensive issues. It hasn’t lately, thanks to a lack of explosive offensive plays. Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury need to get their mojo back, or this will get ugly fast.
4. Baker Mayfield isn’t getting an extension
Cleveland exercised the fifth-year option on Mayfield’s deal this past spring, meaning the 26-year-old is signed through the 2022 season. Things get tricky after that.
Mayfield counted for roughly $10.5 million against the cap this year. That number rises to $18.8 million next season, and that’s the least of Cleveland’s worries.
The ten highest-earning quarterbacks in the NFL make $30 million or more annually on their contracts. Mayfield shouldn’t command that much at this point, but his floor is likely Derek Carr’s deal ($25 million annually). At most, I could see Mayfield getting Kirk Cousins money ($33 million annually), especially as the salary cap rises by about $25.7 million this coming offseason.
However, I don’t expect the Browns will be the team opening their wallet. They just had a front-row seat to the former Heisman Trophy winner ruining a potential comeback win against Green Bay by throwing four interceptions.
Cleveland has a Super Bowl-ready roster (outside of perhaps quarterback and wide receiver), which is why the organization can’t keep hoping and waiting for Mayfield to turn the corner permanently. He’s played well every other year since entering the NFL, and we’ve seen nothing to show that’ll change.
In Mayfield’s defense, he’s dealing with a laundry list of injuries. I expect he’ll play much better in 2022, and the Browns might even franchise tag him for another go in 2023. However, extending Mayfield seems like a risky, all-or-nothing proposition that could cost Cleveland its most talented team in the past 20 to 30 years.
5. Repeat MVP and DPOY winners
We’re nearing a point where Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Donald repeating as MVP and Defensive Player of the Year seems almost imminent. Rodgers is potentially finishing his final season in Green Bay, and his Packers hold the top seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, Donald leads all interior defenders with 12 sacks. He’s also PFF’s highest-graded defender and is one of two players with over 80 pressures this season.
Rodgers doesn’t lead the NFL in any key categories, but his 33 to four touchdown to interception ratio is the league’s best and puts him slightly off of last year’s pace (48 to five). Tom Brady (who leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns) is the only other legitimate MVP candidate at quarterback (unless Burrow makes an incredible late push).
Donald faces more obstacles than Rodgers, but his key competitor from the past few years is out of the running. T.J. Watt leads the NFL in sacks despite playing over 100 fewer snaps than Myles Garrett and over 200 fewer than Donald, but he isn’t healthy enough to get on the podium.
Garrett and Micah Parsons deserve some love, but they haven’t outplayed Donald in any way that would justify one of them winning the award. Kevin Byard and Trevon Diggs could earn votes. However, Diggs gives up too many big plays, and Byard cooled off after a hot start.
6. Buccaneers, Colts stay hot despite injuries
Indianapolis entered a crucial Christmas Day matchup against Arizona without three starting offensive linemen, including Ryan Kelly and Quenton Nelson. The team lost Eric Fisher early in the game and even had a third-stringer in at one point. The Colts also didn’t have their safeties, Darius Leonard, and the team’s second-leading receiver (Zach Pascal).
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay played without Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Antoine Winfield Jr. Star pass rusher Shaquil Barrett sprained his ACL and MCL during the game.
Despite these significant losses, Indianapolis beat a ten-win playoff Cardinals team, and Tampa Bay dismantled Carolina 32-6. We all knew the Buccaneers had one of the deepest and most talented rosters entering the year, but the Colts have a surprisingly resilient group that could prove crucial against banged up teams like Baltimore and Tennessee.