This week’s edition of Tuesday Takeaways is a little shorter than normal, but I wanted to try and get a Wednesday post out on time for once. We won’t spend any time on the Thanksgiving Day games because they’ve already been recapped across several other outlets. Instead, we’ll focus on the Sunday slate and trends across the NFL as a whole.
We’re 12 weeks into the 2021 season, and only a few teams have separated themselves as title contenders. That’s a topic for another time. Let’s stow the parity talk for a week and see what some of the most controversial players and teams are doing right and wrong.
1. The importance of supporting casts
We’ve seen rookie quarterbacks struggle at a historic rate this season, but there are logical explanations for their problems other than throwing around the word “bust.” Supporting casts can make or break quarterbacks that are either young or teetering between mediocre and slightly above average.
Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and Zach Wilson are prime examples of bad teams drafting quarterbacks before they have the infrastructure to support young signal callers. You could barely build an average offensive line or wide receiver corps from those three teams combined.
This concept applies to more than rookies. Veterans face similar issues, and that’s become abundantly clear this year. Ryan Tannehill went from being a top-ten quarterback with A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry to leading the NFL in interceptions without them. He passed for under 100 yards in Week 12 against the Patriots.
Derek Carr is another veteran who saw his play take a step back when Henry Ruggs III, his go-to deep threat, left the team (for obvious reasons). Carr only leveled out once the team added DeSean Jackson and got him involved on Thanksgiving against Dallas.
That Raiders offense needs a deep threat like Nelson Agholor, Jackson, or Ruggs. The supporting cast is incomplete without that type of player.
Matt Ryan is also suffering from offensive deficiencies without Calvin Ridley.
Supporting casts can make or break quarterbacks. There are only so many Tom Bradys or Peyton Mannings in the world. Most quarterbacks aren’t noticeable floor raisers for their teams. Hopefully, more organizations begin realizing the importance of depth and filing situational needs over splash signings.
2. Your new overlords, the New England Patriots
Speaking of supporting casts, Mac Jones walked into the ideal situation. He has the greatest coach of all-time in Bill Belichick and one of the league’s best offensive lines. The Patriots have bulldozers up front in Shaq Mason, Michael Onwenu, and Isaiah Wynn. The running blocking from those three is next level, and they’ve only allowed 40 pressures and seven sacks this year.
The Patriots spent an insane amount of money in the offseason to give Jones weapons. Now, they might’ve handed out some questionable contracts to mid-level players, but the results are there. Kendrick Bourne leads the Pats in receiving yards, and Hunter Henry leads the team with seven receiving touchdowns.
Aside from the team building on offense, New England has the horses on defense to give every top team in the AFC fits. Matt Judon has 11.5 sacks, Kyle Dugger has 80 tackles and three interceptions, and J.C. Jackson is a turnover machine. Add in veterans like Devin McCourty and Dont'a Hightower continuing to produce and provide stabilizing presences, and you’ve got a problem.
New England is built to smack other teams in the mouth on both sides of the ball and force turnovers. This is the kind of team Belichick wanted all along, and it only took him a year to retool.
3. Matthew Stafford hasn’t improved
Stafford’s supporting cast took a massive jump when he left Detroit for sunny Los Angeles. He also united with an offensive-minded head coach in Sean McVay, who somehow had Jared Goff playing at the level of a top-ten quarterback in 2017 and 2018. Things looked good for Stafford through the first eight weeks, but oh boy have the last three games hit hard.
Stafford has five interceptions in Los Angeles’ past three games, all of which have turned into losses against playoff-caliber teams. Even a bye in Week 11 couldn’t get the Rams right for their matchup against Green Bay.
Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson pointed out on Monday that Stafford has a 39.5 PFF grade under pressure, which is worse than rookie Trevor Lawrence. The 33-year-old’s 76.2 offensive grade is his lowest since 2015. Stafford is struggling to meet expectations, instead of thriving with the Rams and turning into the MVP candidate many fans literally bet on him becoming.
ESPN’s Dianna Russini reported ahead of last Sunday’s game that “Stafford's arm has been in a lot of pain. He has elbow pain and his back has a chronic issue that he deals with every single day. His health is certainly an issue.”
Injuries have dogged Stafford since his early years in Detroit, and the chronic back pain could ultimately lead to an early retirement. He broke bones in his back in 2019 and suffered through carrying the Lions franchise for all of those years.
Even if injuries are impacting Stafford’s play this season, there’s no reason to believe they’ll go away in 2022 or beyond. This is the situation, and it’s unlikely to change.
4. Time for Baker to take a break
Baker Mayfield looked hobbled throughout Cleveland’s ugly loss on Sunday Night Football against the AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens. The Browns failed to take advantage of four Lamar Jackson turnovers. Mayfield went 18 for 37 for 247 yards and a touchdown. He also lost a fumble.
Mayfield looked fixed in a massive win against the Cincinnati Bengals four weeks ago, but a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and a knee issue continue hampering him. This can’t continue. At this point, he’s hurting Cleveland’s offense more than he’s helping it.
Case Keenum is a serviceable backup. He could buoy the offense for a while, if not for the rest of the year, as Mayfield recovers. It’s just a question of if either Cleveland or Mayfield wants to blink first and admit it’s time for him to rest.
There’s also the added layer of evaluating Mayfield for a long-term extension when he clearly won’t play at 100% again until 2022.
5. You’ll see Indianapolis in late January
The Colts are 6-6 and two games behind in the AFC South. They missed a chance to close the gap this weekend by losing to Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, Frank Reich’s team pushed the reigning Super Bowl champs to their limits. A long kick return put Carson Wentz in striking distance, but Tampa Bay intercepted a final heave.
Indianapolis has had several impressive performances this year. The team could easily have one or two more wins when you consider they’ve lost overtime games to the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans (when Derrick Henry was playing).
Jonathan Taylor entered the MVP conversation by single-handedly crushing the Buffalo Bills in Week 11. Taylor and the offensive line are good enough to put up some big-time numbers. The Colts have scored 30 or more points in six of their last seven games.
Indy has the NFL’s highest turnover differential (+12) thanks to the defense consistently forcing fumbles. So long as that unit plays average to slightly above average, I could see the Colts winning a playoff game.
6. Interceptions galore
This past week was a feast for defensive backs. The Thanksgiving game between Buffalo and New Orleans produced three interceptions, and that was a pretty good indicator for how things went on Sunday. Six games from the Sunday slate included three or more interceptions. Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson accounted for seven interceptions alone.
The turnover battle remains a solid indicator for which teams have matchup advantages. Out of those six games I mentioned earlier, the team that threw more interceptions lost five times. Baltimore beating Cleveland was the lone outlier, and we already discussed why Cleveland’s offense couldn’t put up points.