The NFL is out of control, and it’s amazing. Week 11 brought us more questions than answers as the 2021 season continued its spiral into madness. Four divisional leaders lost, and New England overtook Buffalo in the AFC East. Injuries and COVID-19 have contributed to a hectic year, but there’s still plenty of time for teams to get healthy ahead of the playoffs.
Today, we’ll cover some of the latest shake-ups from a weekend of upsets, open the MVP discussion, and dig into some minor aspects of the game that cost teams down the stretch.
1. It’s carnage among playoff teams
Welcome to this week’s version of me telling you, “we have no idea who’s actually good.” The early window alone saw several division-leading teams (Buffalo, Green Bay, and Tennessee) crumble against lesser competition. The Bills even surrendered their division lead to Bill Belichick and the Patriots (they’re back).
It was a tough early slate for wild card contenders too. Carolina and New Orleans entered the weekend with wild card spots, but both teams failed to capitalize on matchups against sub-.500 NFC East teams. Philadelphia surprisingly ran up the score on New Orleans before Sean Payton’s team closed the gap.
Even Cleveland and Baltimore experienced scares. The Browns only beat Detroit and backup quarterback Tim Boyle by three points because of two Baker Mayfield interceptions. Lamar Jackson couldn’t play this weekend, so the Ravens turned to Tyler Huntley, who authored a game-winning drive against Chicago and Andy Dalton with under two minutes left. Baltimore won 16-13.
The late window didn’t provide much action in terms of upsets. The Dallas Cowboys lost again as Kansas City extended its lead in the AFC West.
No team is safe this year. The pre-season Super Bowl favorites don’t matter. The mid-season favorites don’t matter either. Every week completely reorganizes the NFL and makes narratives do 180s. I bet the league will continue defying conventional wisdom until we get late into the playoffs.
2. Remember what I said about the Titans? I lied
In the Week 10 edition of this series, I wrote that the Titans were “pretty good” and that “I’d still feel good about them” even if they won all of their remaining games by two points. I didn’t anticipate Tennessee losing a gimme game by nine points against the previously 1-8 Houston Texans. It was the first time Derrick Henry’s absence showed up in a big way.
The Colts are comfortably sitting at 6-5, two games back from the 8-3 Titans, but I still feel confident in Mike Vrabel’s squad winning the AFC South. Not. Indianapolis has Jonathan Taylor, who we’ll talk more about in a second, and they’ve come within a field goal or overtime of beating the Rams, Ravens, and Titans this year.
Ryan Tannehill was a clearly better quarterback than Carson Wentz entering the 2021 season. I still believe that’s true, but we’ve seen the former Dolphin make some Miami-esque mistakes this year. He’s thrown 12 interceptions compared to 13 touchdowns, and Sunday’s four-interception nightmare was his third multi-interception game this season.
For all of Wentz’s insane theatrics, he’s only thrown three interceptions this year. Less than one percent of his passes are intercepted. With the barrier separating Tannehill and Wentz breaking down and Henry not available to match muscle with Taylor, I’m ready to declare the AFC South open for business.
3. Give Jonathan Taylor the MVP
I’m sick of quarterbacks winning the MVP. It’s a quarterback-driven league, but that doesn’t mean jack this season. The two most important players this year through Week 11 are Derrick Henry (who’s done for the regular season) and Taylor.
Just look at how things played out this weekend. Tennessee loses to the previously 1-8 Texans as Tannehill throws four interceptions while Indianapolis destroys Buffalo despite only passing for 106 yards. Two polar opposite outcomes, each driven by the presence or absence of a star running back.
The Colts made several huge defensive plays in their signature win, but Taylor was the engine of Buffalo’s destruction. He ran for 185 yards and four touchdowns on 32 attempts (5.8 yards per carry). The superstar running back also caught three passes on five targets for 19 yards and a touchdown.
Taylor entered Week 11 tied with Henry for the league-lead with 937 rushing yards. He’s all alone in first now with 1,122 yards and 13 touchdowns. For reference, Nick Chubb is third in the NFL with 851 rushing yards.
4. Know how to play the clock
The inner Steelers fan in me wants to demote Chicago to the XFL. The Bears had Baltimore dead to rights when Dalton connected with speedster Marquise Goodwin on a 49-yard play. The only problem? Goodwin raced into the end zone and began celebrating instead of taking a knee short of the goal line.
Baltimore took full advantage of the 1:41 remaining on the game clock and scored the game-winning touchdown seven offensive plays later. Chicago could’ve burned through John Harbaugh’s remaining timeouts and gone up by one with a last-second field goal if Goodwin took a knee.
The Vikings played the clock well in their win against Green Bay, ensuring they saved two seconds for their game-winning field goal. That’s an example of a team with good awareness and clock management and a team with no discipline.
5. Arizona and Kansas City are just fine, Buffalo isn’t
Alarm bells began going off for the Chiefs early this year when Patrick Mahomes inexplicably couldn’t find answers to what defenses put in front of him. Kansas City’s offense still isn’t where it was a year or two ago, but it has found ways to keep Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill heavily involved. Now all Mahomes has to do is shake his bad luck interception streak.
Kansas City’s defense is also trending in the right direction. Moving Chris Jones outside never made any sense, and he’s back to wreaking havoc on the interior. They haven’t played many great offenses recently, but the Chiefs haven’t allowed 20 points in a game since Week 7.
Losing to Green Bay and missing Kyler Murray for three weeks was a high hurdle for a young Cardinals team that hasn’t been a pillar of stability during the Kliff Kingsbury era. However, Colt McCoy and a stout defense helped Arizona reach a 2-1 record without their MVP-caliber quarterback. Now they go into the bye week with a chance to get Murray back on track.
Buffalo is 6-4 after entering 2021 as the favorite to take back the AFC from Kansas City. The offensive line hasn’t given Buffalo’s offense much help, and it’s partially responsible for Josh Allen’s regression. The Wyoming product was an MVP candidate in 2020, but he shouldn’t even be in the discussion this year.
Allen has five interceptions in the past three games, four of which came in multi-interception performances against the Colts and Jaguars. Sunday’s result was far from Allen’s fault. Buffalo’s defense had no answers for Taylor, but only Taylor and Henry have gashed that unit this year.
Sean McDermott’s team isn’t just losing its grip on the AFC. It’s in jeopardy of losing the AFC East.
6. Learn to stop roughing the passer
I was debating including this when Yannick Ngakoue got an unnecessary roughness call that came after he hit Joe Burrow late on a passing down. Guys, roughing the passer and unnecessary roughness are two of the harshest punishments in football. That’s 15 free yards and a first down. It’s the ultimate momentum killer for a defense.
I don’t have the numbers for how many roughing calls occurred in Week 11, but I saw at least three in the early slate alone. It’s one thing if you’re falling into the quarterback, and it’s a bad call. However, if the ball is gone and you’re two steps away from the quarterback, pull up!
Look, I’m not a fan of how often quarterbacks get calls. It’s unfair to the defense, even though we all know those penalties help keep quarterbacks healthy and games competitive, but this is how the league is now. It’s time for defenders to stop glory hunting and adjust.