Ranking the top 30 NFL quarterbacks for 2022

There are maybe ten to 13 quarterbacks in the NFL that teams believe can lead Super Bowl-winning squads

Jul 27, 2022

There are ten to 13 quarterbacks in the NFL that teams believe can lead Super Bowl-winning squads. Today, we’ll look at football’s most important position and build a list of the top 30 quarterbacks by examining recent production, injuries, age, situations, and skill sets.

I divided the top 30 quarterbacks into five main tiers. The tiers are more important than the individual number ranking since most players are interchangeable in their tiers.

There are two 2021 rankings below each quarterback. The first shows where I ranked the quarterback among players at their position during the 2021 offseason. The second rank shows where each passer landed on my top 200 players project last summer.

I understand these rankings will be controversial. Please remember that they are just my opinion and don’t really hold any greater meaning. You can reach me in the comments or on Twitter @Sam_Teets33 to tell me what I got wrong and what you would change.

*Indicates rookie player

NFL 2022: Top 30 Quarterbacks

Tier 1: Perennial MVP Candidates

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB Kansas City Chiefs

2021 Quarterback Rank: 1

2021 Top 200 Rank: 2

2. Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay Packers

2021 Quarterback Rank: 2

2021 Top 200 Rank: 3

3. Josh Allen, QB Buffalo Bills

2021 Quarterback Rank: 4

2021 Top 200 Rank: 8

4. Tom Brady, QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2021 Quarterback Rank: 3

2021 Top 200 Rank: 5

5. Joe Burrow, QB Cincinnati Bengals

2021 Quarterback Rank: 15

2021 Top 200 Rank: 148

I wasn’t sure who to place atop the quarterback hierarchy. I could make arguments for any of the quarterbacks in Tier 1. They are all excellent talents that general managers would kill to have, but I can poke holes in every quarterback’s argument for the top spot. Mahomes finished first by default, but I would welcome other orders if nuanced arguments accompanied them.

Mahomes and Kansas City faced changes in 2021 as defenses began employing two-high safety looks to take away the home run shots Mahomes became famous for over his first three years as a starter. The soon-to-be 27-year-old still had an excellent season, but it wasn’t on par with his 2018 and 2020 campaigns. He enters 2022 without Tyreek Hill.

Rodgers and his back-to-back MVPs could claim the top spot, but his wide receiver room is by far the worst among the quarterbacks in Tier 1. Losing Davante Adams could lead to a repeat of the 2015 season for Rodgers. He threw for under 4,000 yards that year as Jordy Nelson missed the entire season.

Allen finished second in the MVP race in 2020 and is the most athletically gifted quarterback in Tier 1. He ran for 763 yards last season, leading qualified players with 6.3 yards per carry. However, Allen took a step back as a passer in 2021, throwing five more interceptions and over 100 fewer yards than in 2020 despite appearing in one more game.

Brady is about a week away from turning 45 years old. He finished second in MVP voting last year as he led the NFL in pass attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns. I fear the significant increase in volume will impact Brady’s body, which is already the least physically able among Tier 1 quarterbacks. However, the seven-time Super Bowl champion arguably has the best supporting cast of any quarterback in the league.

Burrow was statistically the third-most impressive quarterback in the NFL last year. The 25-year-old led the league in completion percentage despite facing endless waves of pass rushers behind a horrendous offensive line. Cincinnati fixed the offensive line this offseason, which frees up Burrow to pursue another Super Bowl berth.

Burrow is the most controversial inclusion in Tier 1. It’s stunning how underrated he’s become this offseason. Some people don’t even have him as a top-seven quarterback because he doesn’t have great mobility or a rocket arm. Burrow is accurate and clutch, and he’s been turning around teams since his days at LSU. He deserves more respect.

Tier 2: Inconsistent All-Pros

6. Justin Herbert, QB Los Angeles Chargers

2021 Quarterback Rank: 10

2021 Top 200 Rank: 88

7. Russell Wilson, QB Denver Broncos

2021 Quarterback Rank: 5

2021 Top 200 Rank: 22

8. Matthew Stafford, QB Los Angeles Rams

2021 Quarterback Rank: 17

2021 Top 200 Rank: 163

9. Lamar Jackson, QB Baltimore Ravens

2021 Quarterback Rank: 8

2021 Top 200 Rank: 68

Tier 2 combines future/former MVP candidates and All-Pro candidates. These players aren’t as consistent year-to-year as the players in Tier 1 and often have lower ceilings. However, most franchises would still love to have these quarterbacks.

Herbert hasn’t played at an MVP level yet, but all signs point toward him reaching that point in the future. The 24-year-old Oregon product averaged 292.2 yards per game over his first two seasons. Herbert still has to clean up his decision-making, but he has all of the traits to author a historic career.

Wilson was consistently a top-seven quarterback in Seattle who failed to finish multiple MVP campaigns. Last season, the 33-year-old missed a game for the first time in his ten-year career. The Broncos are banking on Wilson returning to form in 2022.

Stafford wasn’t great in 2021, but he turned it on for the playoffs. The former Lion led the NFL with 17 interceptions, including eight in the final four weeks. Stafford also threw three interceptions late in the postseason, but his late-game heroics and skill proved enough to get Los Angeles across the finish line.

The back-and-forth discussion on Jackson’s place in the quarterback hierarchy is nauseating. He was great in 2019, solid in 2020, and bad in 2021 when he (and the Ravens in general) battled injuries. Let’s let the 2022 season decide Jackson’s fate. If he plays at his 2019 level, he’ll remain elite. Otherwise, he’ll drop outside of the top ten. It’s that simple.

Tier 3: Fringe Top Ten Quarterbacks

10. Dak Prescott, QB Dallas Cowboys

2021 Quarterback Rank: 9

2021 Top 200 Rank: 81

11. Kyler Murray, QB Arizona Cardinals

2021 Quarterback Rank: 16

2021 Top 200 Rank: 152

12. Kirk Cousins, QB Minnesota Vikings

2021 Quarterback Rank: 13

2021 Top 200 Rank: 139

13. Derek Carr, QB Las Vegas Raiders

2021 Quarterback Rank: 12

2021 Top 200 Rank: 107

Prescott rebounded well from his season-ending injury in 2020. I was tempted to bump him into Tier 2, considering I don’t see that significant of a gap between him and Stafford. However, Prescott is in a decaying situation while Stafford is surrounded by more talent.

Murray signed a massive extension this month. The soon-to-be 25-year-old possesses plenty of talent, but he usually starts the year hot and flames out by the end. It’s hard to separate Murray from his team’s performances late in the year, but the Oklahoma product’s two-interception game in the 2021-22 playoffs didn’t help his public image.

2021 Quarterback Rank: NR

2021 Top 200 Rank: NR

20. Baker Mayfield, QB Carolina Panthers

2021 Quarterback Rank: 14

2021 Top 200 Rank: 146

The Patriots clearly don’t view Jones as a short-term solution. The second-year quarterback falling into this tier is coincidental, but I think the “short-term” designation fits the other passers well. These are all quarterbacks on short leashes. Their teams might jump at the opportunity to draft an upgrade like Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.

Tannehill thrived in Tennessee’s scheme in 2019 and 2020, but injuries to A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry, and Julio Jones revealed the former Dolphin’s flaws. Wentz also showcased his flaws to the world, although many of his collapses were more self-inflicted than Tannehill’s.

Yes, Wentz is still a top-20 quarterback in the NFL. You won’t find a quarterback in Tier 5 with multiple 27-touchdown to seven-interception seasons.

Mayfield and Winston saw their 2021 seasons derailed by injuries. Mayfield attempted to play through a shoulder injury, which arguably cost him a massive contract. Mayfield has two seasons of top-15 play (2018 and 2020) separated by dreadful campaigns in 2019 and 2021.

Winston was on pace for 34 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2021 before a torn ACL ended his season after seven games. The former Buccaneer wasn’t a high-volume passer in New Orleans, but the new approach brought out some of his better traits. However, we haven’t seen Winston play ten or more games since 2019.

Hurts and Jones could develop into franchise quarterbacks. They both have limited arm strength, but Hurts’ mobility and Jones’ decision-making and accuracy give the two young quarterbacks legitimate trump cards.

2021 Quarterback Rank: NR

2021 Top 200 Rank: NR

Garoppolo and Goff both made it to Super Bowls in recent history, but I don’t think you’ll find a front office that will name either of them as top-15 quarterbacks. Bridgewater has also shown the potential to lead a winning football team, but these three players are nothing more than placeholders at this point in their careers.

Speaking of placeholders, Heinicke and Trubisky aren’t starting-caliber players. They are excellent backups capable of winning a few games, but no one trusts them to lead a team for 17 games.

Fields, Lawrence, Mills, Tagovailoa, and Wilson are developmental options. All of those players but Mills were first round picks. Hopefully, a few of those young players transform into franchise quarterbacks, but they haven’t played well enough to earn top-20 positions yet. Lawrence, Tagovailoa, and Wilson saw their situations improve significantly this offseason.

Tier 6: The Void

Deshaun Watson, QB Cleveland Browns

2021 Quarterback Rank: 6

2021 Top 200 Rank: 39

We don’t know how many games (if any) Watson will play in the 2022 season. He’s an MVP-caliber quarterback when available, but he didn’t play football in 2021. There are much more serious matters than football playing out in Watson’s situation.

Honorable Mentions

Andy Dalton, QB New Orleans Saints

Tyler Huntley, QB Baltimore Ravens

Daniel Jones, QB New York Giants

Case Keenum, QB Buffalo Bills

Trey Lance, QB San Francisco 49ers

Marcus Mariota, QB Atlanta Falcons

Colt McCoy, QB Arizona Cardinals

Gardner Minshew, QB Philadelphia Eagles

Kenny Pickett, QB Pittsburgh Steelers*

Tyrod Taylor, QB New York Giants

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