NFL Top 200 Players of 2021 Pt. 5
Players No. 120 through 101
The NFL top 200 for 2021 ranks players based on past success, projections for development and regression, injuries, and supporting casts. Today, we’ll reveal the fifth batch of names as the countdown reaches its midway point. Check back tomorrow for the next group of players.
If you haven’t already, take a moment to browse through the previous rankings.
There’s no way to project exactly how the NFL season could play out, but these rankings attempt to identify players primed for breakout campaigns or in situations where they might take a step back. You’ll notice the concepts of rebound years and regression appear several times.
We have no scientific method to compare players that lineup at different positions, so this list is highly subjective. I’ve included the positional ranking of each player in parentheses to counteract this cross-positional subjectivity and give readers a better understanding of how I believe players stack up against their competition.
Please direct any comments or concerns to @Sam_Teets33 on Twitter.
(Statistics come from ESPN, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, and Pro Football Reference)
*Indicates rookie
Resuming the Countdown
120. Isaiah Wynn, OT (14) New England Patriots
Previous Rank: Unranked
New England drafted Wynn 23rd overall in 2018 for a reason. The 25-year-old showed promise during his first season in action and dominated this past season. However, injuries are never too far away for Wynn. The Georgia product missed his entire rookie campaign with a torn Achilles, half of 2019 with a turf toe, and six games in 2020 with COVID and a quad injury.
That’s 30 missed games in three years for the stellar left tackle. If we overlook the injuries, Wynn could easily have found his way into the top 100 in this article. However, it seems inevitable that he’ll miss time during the new 17-game regular season.
Wynn was a force to be reckoned with in 2020. He received an 82.6 grade from PFF, which ranked tenth among tackles with at least 300 snaps. There’s still plenty of room for Wynn to improve in pass protection, considering he’s allowed 30 pressures in his 18 appearances.
119. Cooper Kupp, WR (14) Los Angeles Rams
Previous Rank: 136
It took Kupp several years to reach his potential, but the Eastern Washington product is one of the league’s most productive wide receivers. He has 186 receptions, 2,135 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns over the past two seasons, no thanks to Jared Goff’s struggles along the way. However, Kupp’s worthiness of this spot is up in the air.
Kupp only has one season on record where he performed at the level of a top-15 wide receiver. He hauled in 94 receptions for ten touchdowns in 2019, both of which ranked among the top ten for all pass catchers. He finished 12th in receiving yards. However, last season hinted that Kupp isn’t good enough to transcend his quarterback’s play.
While Kupp missed a game last year and played fewer snaps, he only had about ten fewer targets. Playing with Matthew Stafford should elevate Kupp’s performance, which is why he’s this high compared to other receivers, but this selection relies heavily on projecting improved quarterback play.
118. Jeffery Simmons, IDL (11) Tennessee Titans
Previous Rank: 138
Simmons suffered a torn ACL ahead of the 2019 NFL Draft, but that didn’t scare the Titans away from taking him 19th overall. Simmons made a miraculous recovery and played nine games during his rookie season, showing enough potential that Tennessee felt comfortable moving on from long-time star defensive tackle Jurrell Casey.
Simmons had a well-rounded second season but wasn’t dominant in any single area. He finished the year with three sacks, three fumble recoveries, and 49 tackles in 15 games. The Mississippi St. product didn’t have double-digit tackles for loss and applied above-average but not outstanding amounts of pressure.
Titans fans remain hopeful that Simmons is on the cusp of a breakout campaign. Adding Denico Autry and Bud Dupree in the offseason should help the 24-year-old reach his peak. For now, Simmons has more potential than production.
117. Taylor Decker, OT (13) Detroit Lions
Previous Rank: 122
Decker had a stellar rookie season in 2016, earning NFL All-Rookie honors. Injuries robbed the former 16th overall pick of eight games in 2017, and he didn’t get in a rhythm again until 2019. He finished with overall PFF grades over 75.0 the past two years and set a new career-high at 82.0 this past season behind a stellar showing in pass protection.
Decker finished 2020 with PFF’s sixth-best pass blocking grade among tackles with at least 300 snaps. Garett Boles was the only tackle to play over 1,000 snaps and have a higher pass blocking grade than Decker, and Denver’s breakout star earned All-Pro nods from the Associated Press and PFF.
The Lions have an extremely young and inexperienced offensive line, but there’s plenty of potential for the unit to grow together. Decker is the unit’s second-oldest projected starter behind guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
116. Josh Jacobs, RB (9) Las Vegas Raiders
Previous Rank: 119
Jacobs is a large power back, but don’t underestimate his explosiveness. The Alabama product ranked among the top ten backs in rushes of ten yards or more and yards after contact. However, the 23-year-old found himself running into the arms of defenders early in his rush attempts. Jacobs only averaged 3.9 yards per carry this past season.
Saying Las Vegas doesn’t have a great offensive line is an understatement. Kolton Miller is a valuable pass blocker and Richie Incognito packs a punch when healthy, but he’s 38 years old and coming off a two-game season. The Raiders don’t have enough along the offensive line to maximize Jacobs’ skills.
Jacobs has 2,215 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns through two seasons, but he isn’t a significant factor in the passing game. The young running back’s efficiency won’t turn many heads either. There’s also the worry that he’ll lose touches to Kenyan Drake, who signed a two-year, $11 million deal with Las Vegas this offseason.
Jacobs is a talented running back, but his situation and skill set don’t qualify as elite.
115. Jordan Poyer, S (14) Buffalo Bills
Previous Rank: 99
The Philadelphia Eagles found a gem when they selected Poyer in the seventh-round with the 218th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Too bad the birds weren’t smart enough to keep the Oregon St. product around. Poyer spent a few years in Cleveland before reaching his current form with the Bills.
Since heading to Buffalo in 2017, Poyer has 13 interceptions, seven sacks, seven forced fumbles, and over 400 tackles. He’s a well-rounded safety but doesn’t crack the position’s elite tier. Poyer posted defensive grades of 86.4, 68.4, 74.2, and 75.2 over the last four years. The 86.4 came in 2017, which is still his only season inside PFF’s ten highest-graded safeties.
Buffalo possesses one of the NFL’s best secondaries with Tre'Davious White at cornerback and the safety duo of Micah Hyde and Poyer. Last season wasn’t the best campaign from the star trio. Bills Mafia firmly believes they’ll rebound in 2021.
114. Kareem Jackson, S (13) Denver Broncos
Previous Rank: 116
Jackson began a new chapter of his football life several years ago, transitioning from cornerback to safety. The Alabama product easily made the shift following a rocky start to his career as a corner. Jackson is already 33 years old, but his background as a cornerback makes him one of the NFL’s more consistent cover safeties.
Playing alongside a stud like Justin Simmons isn’t an easy job. Weak safeties could easily fold as offenses desperately duck around Simmons and target his teammates. Fortunately for Denver, Jackson is up to the challenge. He’s only intercepted three passes since joining the Broncos, but his 82.3 grade in 2019 and 80.4 this past season both ranked inside the top seven for safeties (minimum 300 snaps).
Three of Jackson’s four best seasons by PFF standards came in the past three years. He’s aging with grace and could embark on another top-ten season in a few weeks.
113. Roquan Smith, LB (7) Chicago Bears
Previous Rank: 53
Smith is the perfect case study of a young linebacker who got shredded in coverage early in his career only to turn things around quickly. The Georgia linebacker was excellent in coverage this past season, only allowing a 59.6 passer rating when targeted and giving up no touchdowns (according to Pro Football Reference).
The Associated Press selected Smith as a Second-Team All-Pro last year largely because of his coverage skills. The 24-year-old intercepted two passes, broke up seven more, sacked the quarterback four times, and amassed 139 tackles. Smith also tallied double-digit tackles for loss, but his anchor against the run remains questionable.
After 2019 many Bears fans wondered if Smith was worth re-signing. Now, they’re just hoping he’s willing to take a reasonable deal rather than chase Bobby Wagner’s $18 million per year.
112. Montez Sweat, EDGE (17) Washington Football Team
Previous Rank: 149
Sweat had a decent rookie season, but his stock began taking off with an enticing sophomore campaign highlighted by a pick-six against Dallas on Thanksgiving. Sweat wrapped up his second NFL season with nine sacks, two forced fumbles, six passes defensed, 45 tackles, and a dozen tackles for loss. He’s already looking like one of the league’s better run defenders.
Sweat has immense physical traits, and he’s only just beginning to scratch the surface of his potential. A couple of teammates could help him make significant leaps in the right direction this year. Jonathan Allen and Chase Young attained higher rankings on the top 200 than Sweat, and they could open plenty of one-on-one opportunities for the Mississippi St. product.
Year 2 already marked a significant jump for Sweat. He turned his rookie 60.2 PFF grade into a 79.7, which nearly cracked the top ten for edge rushers with at least 300 snaps.
111. Laremy Tunsil, OT (12) Houston Texans
Previous Rank: 150
Tunsil felt like the future at left tackle entering the 2016 NFL Draft. A viral video threatened to ruin the moment, but the Mississippi product still went 13th overall to Miami. He would’ve easily gone in the top ten picks if not for the infamous leaked bong video. While he’s escaped the shadow of that embarrassment, Tunsil hasn’t quite reached his full potential.
Tunsil was always a good pass blocker, even dating back to his 14-game rookie season when he played guard. He’s climbed the pass blocking ranks by leaps and bounds since moving to tackle, finishing third and sixth in that area over the past two seasons, according to PFF. Perhaps only Terron Armstead, David Bakhtiari, and Ronnie Stanley are more proficient blindside protectors.
However, Tunsil hasn’t asserted himself in the running game. He’s never received a run blocking grade of 70.0 or higher from PFF. Tunsil can’t crack the top 100 without a complete game.
110. Taylor Moton, OT (11) Carolina Panthers
Previous Rank: 110
Moton went from playing under 100 offensive snaps as a rookie to signing a four-year, $71.246 million contract extension. The Western Michigan product started Carolina’s last 48 games without missing a beat. He’s earned PFF grades of 76.6, 76.2, and 81.6 over the past three years and could see those numbers spike as Matt Rhule’s team continues upgrading.
Similar to Tunsil, Moton does his best work in pass protection. He only allowed 19 pressures on over 1,000 offensive snaps last season, which were the second-fewest among tackles with that many snaps. However, Moton is a more well-rounded player than Tunsil.
The former second-round pick’s grades finished among the top-25 tackles in pass and run blocking (minimum 300 snaps), something specialists like Jake Matthews, Mike McGlinchey, and Tunsil can’t claim.
There’s a chance Moton shifts out of his usual position at right tackle to the left side if Carolina gets desperate.
109. Budda Baker, S (12) Arizona Cardinals
Previous Rank: 87
Arizona made Baker the league’s highest-paid safety last offseason, only a few months after he led the NFL in solo tackles. The Washington product made a name for himself as an All-Pro special teams player in 2017, but he was voted a First-Team All-Pro at his natural position by the Associated Press in 2020.
Baker should easily rank among the top ten safeties based on his accolades, but outlets like the Associated Press have a flawed way of approaching safeties. Baker’s 75.3 defensive grade tied him with Darnell Savage for ninth-best among safeties in 2020. It was his first year with a PFF grade over 75.0.
Baker isn’t a bad safety, but he’s not nearly elite either. The 25-year-old hasn’t held opposing quarterbacks below a 105.0 passer rating when targeted in any of the past three years. He’s allowed quarterbacks to complete above 70.0% of their throws against him for his career, and Pro Football Reference claims Baker allowed five touchdowns last season.
The Cardinals recognize Baker’s value as a run stopper and that he can turn in elite games, but the Arizona safety doesn’t crack the top 100.
108. Shaq Mason, G (8) New England Patriots
Previous Rank: 93
Mason struggled mightily during his debut season in the NFL before settling in as one of the league’s premier run blocking guards. Since the start of his second season, Mason has only one year with a run blocking grade below 80.0. He’s finished with an overall offensive grade over 81.0 in four of the past five years as well.
Mason could crack the top 100 if he were more consistent in pass protection. The guard struggled to protect Cam Newton last year, but the new offensive system also led to him posting a career-high run blocking grade. New England’s offense favors linemen capable of getting the ground game going, and that’s Mason’s specialty.
It’s unclear how Mac Jones entering the starting lineup could alter New England’s game plan and production. This season could turn into a year of incredible highs and lows for Bill Belichick’s offensive line.
107. Derek Carr, QB (12) Las Vegas Raiders
Previous Rank: 137
There was some serious chatter in NFL circles about Carr potentially progressing to MVP levels following his second and third seasons. That future never materialized for Carr, and the former second-round pick made the final of his three Pro Bowl appearances in 2017. However, he’s quietly still performing at a borderline top-ten level.
Carr posted an 84.7 offensive grade last season (his highest since 2016), which ranked ninth among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. Over the past two seasons, Carr has 49 touchdowns and 17 interceptions to go along with a 101.1 passer rating. His 64.1 QBR in 2019 ranked tenth, and he improved upon that number in 2020, raising it to 71.0.
Carr won’t reach his early career MVP aspirations, but the Fresno State product is still battling for a spot among the NFL’s ten best quarterbacks. He’s also working with by far the fewest weapons of any quarterback on the top 200.
106. Frank Ragnow, C (2) Detroit Lions
Previous Rank: 82
Ragnow is one of the few bright spots in Detroit. The 25-year-old Arkansas product battled through a throat injury last year to finish the season with PFF’s second-best grade among centers. He received Second-Team All-Pro honors from the Associated Press and PFF.
The arrow is constantly pointing up for Ragnow. He’s made strides since entering the NFL as a run blocker and in pass protection. He’s still more efficient in the running game, but Ragnow is already an above-average pass blocker. He only allowed nine pressures last season after giving up 36 just two years earlier (his rookie year).
The Lions aren’t devoid of talent, but it’s hard to expect more than six or seven wins from them. The offensive line features plenty of youth, including Penei Sewell, Logan Stenberg, and Jonah Jackson. Decker and Ragnow are the line’s veterans, despite only being 28 and 25 years old respectively. The unit could develop into one of the NFL’s best if it grows together.
105. Jonathan Allen, IDL (10) Washington Football Team
Previous Rank: 105
Allen falls into a similar bucket as Simmons and Quinnen Williams. The trio of young defensive tackles is trying to win perennial spots among the top ten interior defensive linemen. That’s not an easy task considering the number of established veterans at the position, but Allen took significant strides in 2020.
Allen’s first season primarily playing inside instead of on the edge was a massive success. His 80.3 defensive grade from PFF was a career-high, and the 26-year-old also set a career-high for pressures, despite only recording two sacks. Ideally, Allen would pick up more tackles for loss, but that could come with some more time.
Washington has one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, with Sweat and Young manning the edges. Those two could keep Allen and fellow defensive tackle Daron Payne from getting many sacks, but that doesn’t diminish the importance of their interior push.
104. Leonard Williams, IDL (9) New York Giants
Previous Rank: 69
Williams got off to a hot start with the New York Jets before flaming out for several years. He was still a solid defender during his final days with the lesser New York franchise, but the All-Pro potential he flashed early in his career was seemingly gone. That all changed with a swap of uniforms and a better supporting cast.
Playing alongside Dexter Lawrence and Dalvin Tomlinson opened plenty of possibilities for Williams. The former sixth overall pick set a career-high with 11.5 sacks, and his 57 tackles were the most since his breakout sophomore campaign with the Jets. Losing Tomlinson in free agency could alter Williams’ production in 2021, but it shouldn’t cause a collapse.
Williams benefits heavily from the scheme and talent surrounding him. It’s doubtful he posts back-to-back ten-sack seasons after not having one for the first five years of his career. However, he should still perform at the level of a top-ten interior defensive lineman.
103. Matt Ryan, QB (11) Atlanta Falcons
Previous Rank: 135
Ryan was the NFL regular season MVP in 2016, but he’s far from a one-year wonder. The Boston College product hasn’t thrown for under 4,000 yards in a season since 2010, and he’s posted a passer rating over 90.0 in nine of his 13 professional seasons. Ryan’s QBR is also constantly among the league’s best. He’s finished among the top ten quarterbacks in QBR ten times, including a run of nine consecutive years (2010-2018).
Ryan only has one season with a QBR below 64.0, but four of his five lowest QBRs are from the past four years. However, Ryan’s 83.1 offensive grade in 2020 still ranked 11th in the NFL. The 36-year-old quarterback is entering the twilight of a possible Hall of Fame career, and he continues taking a beating behind one of the league’s most inconsistent offensive lines.
Losing Julio Jones could impact Ryan this season and send the quarterback further along his seemingly impending trip down the mountain. However, Calvin Ridley’s ascendence and Kyle Pitts’ arrival might stave off Father Time for a few more years.
102. Brandon Graham, EDGE (16) Philadelphia Eagles
Previous Rank: 102
Graham is one of the most underrated NFL players from the past decade. He took plenty of time asserting himself in Philadelphia’s lineup but became a dependable mainstay by 2015. He’s only missed one game over the past nine years and seven starts in the past six seasons. Graham only has 59 sacks, but 30 of them came in the past four years.
In 2020, fans selected Graham to his first Pro Bowl. It was an appropriate honor for a long-overlooked star. Graham has seven consecutive seasons with PFF grades over 81.0, and he had a three-year run between 2016 and 2018 with grades of 89.0 or higher. Unfortunately, Graham only received All-Pro honors during his 2016 campaign.
Graham recorded eight sacks in 2020, but the 33-year-old’s age is beginning to show. His 81.5 grade was his lowest since 2013, but that doesn’t mean the Michigan product is done. He still has several years of borderline elite play left. Remember, that 81.5 was still good enough for the tenth best grade among edge rushers (minimum 300 snaps).
101. Joe Thuney, G (7) Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Rank: 161
Thuney is one of the NFL’s most consistent guards. The 28-year-old hasn’t missed a start since entering the NFL in 2016, and he’s posted PFF grades above 74.0 in each of the past four seasons. Thuney’s production took a hit with Cam Newton under center last year, but he was an elite pass protector in 2018 and 2019.
The NFL features maybe a dozen high-level guards. Thuney isn’t among the top five or six members of that group, but he’s graded within the class before. The new Chief posted the fifth-highest PFF grade among guards with at least 300 snaps in 2019 and had the third-best pass blocking grade. His style of play should fit Kansas City’s offense perfectly.