NFL Top 200 Players of 2021 Pt. 1
NFL Top 200 Players of 2021 Pt. 1
Players No. 200 through 181
Sports inherently lend themselves to rankings, and football is the king of kings in American society. That’s why NFL Network releases an annual series ranking the league’s top 100 players. These lists create controversy, drive discussions, and frequently frustrate players. We’ll feed the fire today by counting down the top 200 players as the regular season approaches.
I already wrote an article covering the top 200 players ahead of the 2021 NFL season, but I wanted to refine the list now that most of the offseason is over. My approach to this article was also different from the previous edition.
While this top 200 factors in previous success, it focuses heavily on projecting production for 2021. This emphasis means injuries that could cause players to miss time this season made a large impact on the rankings. Players that received reinforcements or saw their surroundings improve during the offseason climbed the list because their outlooks improved.
There’s no way to project exactly how the NFL season could play out, but these rankings attempt to identify players primed for breakout campaigns or in situations where they might take a step back. You’ll notice the concepts of rebound years and regression appear several times.
There’s no scientific way to compare players that play different positions, so this list is highly subjective. I’ve included the positional ranking of each player in parentheses to counteract this cross-positional subjectivity and give readers a better understanding of how players stack up against their competition.
Please direct any comments or concerns to @Sam_Teets33 on Twitter.
Now, let’s kick off the NFL top 200 with some honorable mentions.
(Statistics come from ESPN, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, and Pro Football Reference)
*Indicates rookie
Honorable Mentions
Kevin Byard, S Tennessee Titans
Previous Rank: Notable Omission
Byard led the NFL in interceptions in 2017 and earned First-Team All-Pro honors from the Associated Press and PFF. Unfortunately, that production proved unsustainable. Byard intercepted four passes in 2018 and five in 2019 but only snagged one this past year. He hasn’t made the Pro Bowl since 2017.
Michael Dickson, P Seattle Seahawks
Previous Rank: Unranked
Dickson was an Associated Press First-Team All-Pro during his rookie season, and he’s only gotten better. The Aussie wasn’t an All-Pro this past year, but he led the NFL in punts inside the 20-yard line with 32. His 49.6 yards per punt ranked third in the league.
Dickson brings plenty of fun to a glossed-over position. Expect to see him in a few more Pro Bowls before all is said and done.
Anthony Harris, S Philadelphia Eagles
Previous Rank: 168
Harris began turning heads at PFF in 2018 when he posted an 89.0 defensive grade on just over 620 snaps. He followed the breakout campaign with a 90.5 grade, finishing second in grading among all safeties with at least 300 snaps. Harris also tied for the league-lead with six interceptions that year.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go Harris’ way in 2020. He failed to intercept a pass and posted his worst PFF grade since 2016.
Shelby Harris, IDL Denver Broncos
Previous Rank: Unranked
Harris played under 1,500 defensive snaps during his last three years with the Broncos, but he’s been dynamite for Denver. The big man knows how to shut down the run and applies a sneaky amount of pressure. He’s graded among the top ten interior defensive linemen for PFF in two of the past three years.
Elgton Jenkins, G Green Bay Packers
Previous Rank: Unranked
Jenkins is one of the NFL’s most dynamic offensive linemen. The bulk of his snaps came at guard last year, but he also lined up at center and left tackle. That versatility could come in handy as Green Bay opens 2021 without All-Pro David Bakhtiari. Don’t put it past the Packers to kick Jenkins outside when needed.
Deion Jones, LB Atlanta Falcons
Previous Rank: Unranked
Jones looked like a future superstar two seasons into his career. He built up six interceptions, 21 passes defensed, two defensive touchdowns, and 246 tackles in his first 31 games. A foot injury caused Jones to miss most of 2018. While he’s still an above-average player, the Florida product no longer hears his name tossed around with the game’s best linebackers.
Marshon Lattimore, CB New Orleans Saints
Previous Rank: 165
Lattimore still has his moments as an elite corner. He always seems especially motivated against Mike Evans and the Buccaneers, but that aggressive play doesn’t translate week-to-week. The former Defensive Rookie of the Year hasn’t come close to matching the borderline elite play from his rookie campaign.
Chris Lindstrom, G Atlanta Falcons
Previous Rank: Unranked
Atlanta used the 14th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft on Lindstrom. The 24-year-old is far from a finished product, but he’s already shown promise just 21 games into his career. Lindstrom missed most of his rookie season but posted a 77.1 PFF offensive grade in 2020. That ranked ninth among guards (minimum 300 snaps).
Miles Sanders, RB Philadelphia Eagles
Previous Rank: 170
Sanders flashed plenty of promise as a rookie and seemed primed for a breakout campaign entering his second NFL season. No one expected Carson Wentz and Philadelphia to implode in one of the strangest, most dramatic collapses in league history. Sanders already has 2,391 yards from scrimmage. Perhaps more organizational stability will finally produce a Pro Bowl campaign.
L'Jarius Sneed, CB Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Rank: Unranked
Sneed impressed during his rookie season as a slot option for Kansas City. He’ll play outside in his second season as the Chiefs struggle to find cornerback depth. Sneed put together an excellent first year, but he only appeared in nine regular season games and struggled in the playoffs. We’ll see if he can put together a full season of dominance.
Robert Woods, WR Los Angeles Rams
Previous Rank: Notable Omission
The Buffalo Bills once prioritized Sammy Watkins over Woods. That move was a massive mistake as Watkins continues struggling with injuries while Woods has 266 receptions for 3,289 yards and 14 touchdowns over the past three years. He has some of the best hands in the NFL and should see his stats jump playing with Matthew Stafford.
Two for the Road
202. Logan Thomas, TE (12) Washington Football Team
Previous Rank: 176
Thomas is hardly a PFF darling. Last year, the collegiate quarterback turned tight end earned a 64.5 grade, which ranked 17th among the 26 tight ends with at least 50 targets. Among those tight ends, Thomas took the third-largest percentage of snaps in the slot (65.7%) and the fourth-fewest in-line (19.4%).
Washington used Thomas in this manner because of his lackluster blocking chops. Converted quarterbacks aren’t known as the best lead blockers. However, poor quarterback play likely played a role in Thomas’ mediocre grading profile. He should experience a massive surge in efficiency with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.
Fitzpatrick combined with Miami’s Mike Gesicki frequently last year. The Penn St. product spent 67.4% of his snaps in the slot and 12.9% in-line. Fitzpatrick knows how to work with tight ends out of the slot, which boosts Thomas’ projection.
201. Trevor Lawrence, QB (18) Jacksonville Jaguars*
Previous Rank: 187
Any rookie selections in this article are total projections based solely on college production. Lawrence entered the NFL in the same discussion as Joe Burrow and Andrew Luck regarding quarterback prospects. While he won’t dig the Jaguars out of the AFC basement this year, Lawrence is a proven winner that should change the franchise’s trajectory.
Lawrence’s accuracy occasionally wavered in college, but he authored three consecutive elite seasons at Clemson. Other top quarterback prospects in recent history, such as Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa, never produced such strong three-year stretches.
The Jaguars have a decent backfield, a solid wide receiver room led by former Pro Bowler DJ Chark, and an average offensive line by NFL standards. Lawrence’s immediate success could come down to Urban Meyer’s ability to adapt to the NFL, which is why he doesn’t climb higher than No. 201.
Opening the Top 200
200. Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE (23) Cleveland Browns
Previous Rank: Unranked
A few years ago, Clowney was one of the NFL’s premier young edge rushers. Unfortunately, the former first overall pick suffered a string of significant injuries over the past two seasons. Clowney only appeared in 21 games since the start of 2019, logging 1,030 snaps. For comparison, the three-time Pro Bowler played 902 snaps in 2018.
Despite getting season-ending meniscus surgery last year, Clowney is still a borderline elite run defender with tremendous athleticism. So long as he stays healthy, Clowney should reap the rewards of playing alongside Myles Garrett. Expect an uptick in his almost non-existent sack production from the past two years.
199. Chris Carson, RB (21) Seattle Seahawks
Previous Rank: Unranked
Carson gave Seattle an heir to Marshawn Lynch in 2018, posting the team’s first 1,000-yard season since Beast Mode’s 2014 campaign. The seventh-round pick ran for 2,381 yards and 16 touchdowns between 2018 and 2019 before injuries held him to 681 yards this past year. Despite the down year, Seattle gave Carson a two-year extension.
Carson averaged a seventh-place finish among PFF’s highest-graded running backs during his healthy campaigns (minimum 100 carries). He also busted through for 65 runs of ten yards or more, only trailing Ezekiel Elliott (79), Nick Chubb (67), and Derrick Henry (72), among all running backs between 2018 and 2019. Those were the only backs with more than Carson’s 1,839 yards after contact as well.
The Seattle Seahawks should get back to pounding the rock in 2021, which projects well for Carson, especially since he averaged a career-high 4.8 yards per carry last year.
198. Austin Hooper, TE (11) Cleveland Browns
Previous Rank: Notable Omission
Hooper’s first season in Cleveland didn’t go as planned. The former Pro Bowler had the second-worst year of his career, leading only his rookie season in production. Despite the off year, Hooper is still one of the best tight ends in the NFL. He should see more targets in 2021 as Baker Mayfield fights for a contract extension.
Injuries and Cleveland’s offensive focus limited Hooper’s outlook for the NFL top 200. The Browns succeeded when relying heavily on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last year instead of airing it out. Cleveland also has viable backups behind Hooper in former first-round pick David Njoku and second-year standout Harrison Bryant.
Even with a few things working against him, Hooper is making far too much money not to see more targets in Year 2 with Cleveland.
197. Josh Allen, EDGE (22) Jacksonville Jaguars
Previous Rank: 150
The former seventh overall pick recorded 10.5 sacks as a rookie. Allen was well on his way to falling short of that mark in 2020 before injuries derailed his sophomore campaign. Allen is an extremely athletic, 24-year-old former Pro Bowler, but there’s no guarantee he returns to form in 2021.
Allen led the Jaguars in sacks as a rookie, but he was the team’s third-best pass rusher. Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue were the true stars. The veterans played over 100 snaps more than Allen, finishing with an average of 12 pressures more than the rookie.
While his PFF pass rush grade rose in 2020, Allen’s run defense grade and production took significant hits. It’s not easy going from an offensive line’s tertiary concern to commanding the spotlight. Maybe K'Lavon Chaisson can help Allen get back on track.
196. Ja'Marr Chase, WR (26) Cincinnati Bengals*
Previous Rank: 191
We haven’t seen Chase since his sophomore year at LSU when he combined with Joe Burrow to shatter several SEC records. Chase looked untouchable for stretches of the 2019 season, snagging 84 receptions for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns. This year’s fifth overall pick earned a reputation as a contested catch receiver in college, but there’s so much more to his game.
The 21-year-old confirmed his explosiveness at LSU’s pro day, running a 4.38 40-yard dash and finishing above the 95th percentile in the broad jump, vertical jump, short shuttle, and bench press. Chase has the strength to bully corners, the athleticism to highpoint almost any throw, and the burst to gain an early step off the line of scrimmage.
Burrow and Chase face an immense challenge in the NFL, but the historic duo should put on quite a show this coming season.
195. Melvin Gordon, RB (20) Denver Broncos
Previous Rank: Notable Omission
Gordon won’t become a feature back in Denver the same way he was during his peak three-year stretch with the Chargers. Gordon battled fellow former Pro Bowler Phillip Lindsay last season, and Denver adding Javonte Williams with the 35th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft signals another year of split carries.
Gordon could find himself with under 14 carries per game for only the third time in his career, depending on how quickly Williams acclimates to the NFL. The Wisconsin product’s time as one of the game’s most productive players is likely nearing an end, but Gordon still has plenty left to give.
The 28-year-old posted the second-best PFF grade of his career last season with a 72.5. That’s far from an elite score, but it demonstrates that Gordon is still an effective player when used properly. He’s too good of a back not to crack the top 200, but there are plenty of scenarios where he’s not on this list next year.
194. Justin Tucker, K (1) Baltimore Ravens
Previous Rank: Unranked
The NFL expects near perfection from Tucker, which is why his three missed field goals caught so many fans off guard last season. However, two of those misses came from 50 yards or farther, and we can’t read too much into his three missed field goals in the playoffs. Tucker is still the game’s top kicker.
Tucker earned his first All-Pro selection in 2013. Since then, he’s collected four All-Pro nominations from PFF and six from the Associated Press, along with a spot on the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s 2010s All-Decade Team. In 2020, the special teams standout turned in his sixth campaign with a PFF grade over 84.0. He’s completed eight seasons in the NFL.
I’m willing to give Tucker the benefit of the doubt after his slight dip last year and count on a rebound in 2021.
193. C.J. Mosley, LB (11) New York Jets
Previous Rank: Unranked
Mosley signed with the Jets in the 2019 offseason following a dominant stretch with Baltimore. During his rookie contract, the Alabama product went to four Pro Bowls and earned four Second-Team All-Pro selections from the Associated Press. Mosley never had an elite PFF profile, but he showed high-end skill in every facet of the game.
We haven’t seen that version of Mosley in a long time. The last time the former 17th overall pick appeared in an NFL game he was 27 years old. He recently turned 29 in mid-June. Mosley battled groin injuries during his first season with the Jets and opted out of last year’s campaign.
New York must assess if the standout All-Pro from several years ago still resides in Mosley. With any luck, taking last year off got his health in the right place.
192. Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE (21) Las Vegas Raiders
Previous Rank: 162
Ngakoue made his only Pro Bowl in 2017 and looked like a future elite sack artist. That season, the former third-round pick earned an 87.3 grade from PFF, which ranked ninth among edge rushers. PFF credited Ngakoue with a staggering 70 pressures and gave him a 90.5 pass rushing grade. His overall grade and total pressures have declined every year since then.
Despite starting 15 games last season, Ngakoue played just under 660 total snaps, the fewest of his career. The 26-year-old entered free agency having recorded at least eight sacks for the fifth consecutive season, but he recorded the fewest pressures of his career in 2020 (per PFF).
Ngakoue isn’t a great run defender, which means his value falls off significantly if he’s not piling up pressures. The Raiders have a stable of interesting defensive ends, including Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrell, but Ngakoue will anchor their pass rush this year.
191. Jonnu Smith, TE (10) New England Patriots
Previous Rank: Unranked
Smith only had the 16th highest PFF grade among tight ends with at least 20 targets last year, but he played an enormous role in Tennessee’s offense, catching 41 passes for 448 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s shifting from the Titans offense, which attempted 485 passes in 2020, to a New England offense that only aired it out 440 times.
Smith gets a huge boost from the offense he joined this offseason. Historically, the Patriots love using tight ends capable of creating mismatches, and Cam Newton had plenty of success with Greg Olsen in Carolina. Smith and fellow free agent signee Hunter Henry could give Newton some easy looks as the former MVP’s arm battles wear and tear.
The Patriots gave Smith a massive four-year, $50 million contract. Expect them to feature him and Henry heavily in a reworked offense.
190. Orlando Brown Jr., OT (24) Kansas City Chiefs
Previous Rank: 100
Brown drew plenty of attention during the 2018 NFL Draft as he slipped into the third-round, where Baltimore happily picked him with the 83rd selection. Brown teamed with Ronnie Stanley to form one of the NFL’s best tackle duos over the past three years, but his demand to play left tackle full-time led to an offseason trade.
Brown is a plus blocker, especially in the passing game, but 2020 was the first time he posted a run blocking grade above 62.0. This past year suggests that Brown can develop into a well-rounded tackle, but he’s far from an elite player at the position.
The Oklahoma product finished 43rd, 28th, and 26th in PFF grading among tackles during his first three NFL seasons respectively (minimum 300 snaps). We can expect more growth from Brown in Kansas City, but he can’t climb much higher than 190th in these rankings.
189. Ben Jones, C (7) Tennessee Titans
Previous Rank: Unranked
There aren’t many star centers in today’s NFL, but Jones is quietly one of the league’s best. His 78.6 PFF grade last year ranked fourth among centers with at least 300 snaps. Jones was a solid center dating back to his time in Houston, but he’s elevated his game over the past two years. Playing with Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill certainly has its perks.
According to PFF, Jones was one of only two centers to play over 1,000 snaps and allow ten or fewer pressures in 2020. Cleveland’s J.C. Tretter was the other.
Jones should complete his string of three borderline elite campaigns, assuming Henry continues his run of dominance this coming season.
188. Mike McGlinchey, OT (23) San Francisco 49ers
Previous Rank: Notable Omission
San Francisco used the ninth overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft on McGlinchey, making him one of the latest star prospects from Notre Dame. The 26-year-old hasn’t dominated during his 44 appearances, but he’s shown tremendous potential. McGlinchey finished 2020 with a career-high 79.6 grade from PFF, despite receiving a career-low mark as a pass blocker.
McGlinchey ranked 20th in grading among all tackles that played 300 snaps last season. However, he finished second in run blocking, only trailing teammate Trent Williams by five-tenths of a point. Williams’ above-average play in pass protection makes him a top-three tackle, while McGlinchey finds himself at 188th in this article.
McGlinchey’s skill set and grading profile make him an excellent match for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but the young tackle has a long way to go before becoming an elite player.
187. Jarvis Landry, WR (25) Cleveland Browns
Previous Rank: Notable Omission
Landry is one of the league’s best slot receivers from the past seven years. Injuries and a lack of targets prevented the former Dolphin from earning his sixth consecutive Pro Bowl bid, but the 28-year-old still earned his best grade from PFF since 2016. His 84.1 grade ranked 15th among all wide receivers (minimum 55 targets).
The biggest knock against Landry is how he gets his yards. The LSU product had an average depth of target (ADOT) between 8.2 and 8.5 yards, depending on which source you believe. PFF claims only 12 wide receivers with at least 55 targets had lower average depths of target than Landry. For reference, Michael Thomas’ ADOT last year was between 9.6 and 9.8 yards.
Baker Mayfield had a much higher passer rating when targeting Landry last year instead of Odell Beckham. Expect Landry to continue as his quarterback’s most reliable target.
186. Mekhi Becton, OT (22) New York Jets
Previous Rank: 174
The Jets faced criticism for selecting Becton with the 11th overall pick in last year’s NFL draft. The towering 6'7'', 364 lb. left tackle was a monster during his time at Louisville but displayed some significant concerns in his form. While Becton didn’t dominate as a rookie, he proved capable of anchoring the blindside of New York’s offensive line.
Becton earned the 29th best offensive grade among tackles with at least 600 snaps. His run blocking grade and pass blocking grade finished in the mid-20s. However, it’s worth noting the rookie easily finished in the top half of 58 qualified tackles in pressures allowed.
Becton could outperform this ranking if he makes even minor strides in 2021. New York adding Morgan Moses at right tackle and Alijah Vera-Tucker at left guard only strengthens the case for Becton having an impressive second year in the NFL.
185. Poona Ford, IDL (18) Seattle Seahawks
Previous Rank: Unranked
The Seahawks hit a home run by signing Ford as an undrafted free agent in 2018. Ford had a stellar rookie season but only played 231 defensive snaps. His efficiency took a hit in 2019 before bouncing back with another impactful campaign in 2020. Ford set career-highs in pressures and defensive snap count (about 670 snaps).
Nose tackles rarely hear their praises sung in the modern NFL, but Ford is exceptional at his job. Seattle rewarded the Texas product with a two-year, $12.345 million deal this offseason, which leaves the door open to Ford receiving another raise when he’s 27 years old.
Last year, Ford’s 81.9 PFF grade ranked tenth among interior defensive linemen that played at least 300 snaps. Tyson Alualu and Vita Vea were the only nose tackles with higher grades, but they played at least 200 fewer snaps than Ford.
184. Jerry Hughes, EDGE (20) Buffalo Bills
Previous Rank: Unranked
Hughes experienced a breakout season in 2013, his first campaign with the Bills. In his eight years with Buffalo, Hughes racked up 51 sacks, and he’s two sacks away from moving into fourth place in franchise history. However, Hughes is 33 years old and hasn’t played at least 700 snaps in a season since 2017.
Hughes’ 87.3 pass rush grade ranked fifth last year among edge rushers with at least 300 snaps. Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Khalil Mack, and T.J. Watt were the only players above the veteran. That’s elite company for an aging star that’s still capable of contributing at a high level.
Hughes doesn’t hear his name in the same discussions as the pantheon of future Hall of Famers listed above because he misses a high percentage of tackles and isn’t holding up well in run defense (compared to superstars) as he gets older.
183. James Robinson, RB (19) Jacksonville Jaguars
Previous Rank: 164
Robinson went from undrafted to rookie phenom to endangered sophomore in less than a year. The 23-year-old ran for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns in only 14 games this past season, but Jacksonville spent a first-round pick on Travis Etienne. Unfortunately, the Clemson product suffered a Lisfranc injury that could keep him sidelined for all of 2021.
Without the threat of splitting carries with Etienne, Robinson vaults into the top 200. Carlos Hyde and Dare Ogunbowale are the only other notable backs on Jacksonville’s roster, and both had under 100 touches last season. Even if Urban Meyer doesn’t like it, Robinson should see a steady dose of carries and at least match his 2020 rushing totals.
The Jaguars kept their five starting offensive linemen together this offseason, which bodes well for the unit’s continuity. Jacksonville also added Stanford tackle Walker Little and tight end blocking specialist Luke Farrell in the 2021 NFL Draft. While that’s not a fantastic group of blockers, it’s more than enough to open holes for Robinson.
182. Courtland Sutton, WR (24) Denver Broncos
Previous Rank: Notable Omission
Sutton missed almost the entire 2020 season with an ACL injury. The 2018 second-round pick hasn’t had a real chance to play with Jerry Jeudy yet, but that changes in a few weeks. The young receiving duo could form a symbiotic relationship, and both cross the 1,000-yard threshold, assuming their quarterbacks are competent enough.
The NFL wasn’t kind to Sutton during his rookie season. He barely caught half of his targets, and his offensive grade ranked outside of the top 75 wide receivers (minimum 30 targets). Fortunately, Sutton began putting things together in his sophomore campaign, finishing 11th in offensive grading among qualified players.
In 2019, Sutton snagged 72 passes for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns. He sees a fair amount of contest catch opportunities and produces at a good clip on those throws. Sutton could bail Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock out of several sticky situations in the coming months.
181. Tyler Lockett, WR (23) Seattle Seahawks
Previous Rank: 172
Lockett and quarterback Russell Wilson are one of the best duos in the league. Wilson has an incredibly high passer rating when targeting Lockett, even if the 28-year-old wide receiver had more drops last season than usual. D.K. Metcalf is an explosive vertical threat, but Lockett always gives his quarterback a security blanket.
Seattle transitioned Lockett from being a return man into a feature receiving role three years ago. Since then, he’s produced 239 receptions, 3,076 yards, and 28 touchdowns. The Kansas St. product doesn’t have the ceiling as many more physically unique receivers, but he’s incredibly consistent.
It won’t be easy, but Lockett could challenge for a top-20 spot among receivers this season if he corrects his drop problem.