Brennan Armstrong, QB Virginia: Offseason 2023 NFL Draft Profile

Armstrong was a three-star recruit from Shelby High School in Shelby, Ohio in the class of 2018

The Virginia Cavaliers boast one of the nation’s most impressive passing offenses, led by quarterback Brennan Armstrong. The redshirt senior was a breakout superstar during the 2021 season, but he has a new head coach going into 2022 and faces questions that will impact his 2023 NFL Draft stock.

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Brennan Armstrong, QB Virginia: 2023 NFL Draft Profile

Classification: Redshirt senior quarterback from Shelby, Ohio

Background: Armstrong was a three-star recruit from Shelby High School in Shelby, Ohio in the class of 2018. He was the No. 619 recruit according to 247Sports and No. 588 for On3.com. Armstrong was an unranked three-star recruit for Rivals. He was an unranked four-star recruit for ESPN with an 80 grade out of 100. As a high school senior, Armstrong completed 100 of 165 passes for 1,933 yards and 30 touchdowns and rushed for 1,105 yards and 22 touchdowns in 11 games. In 2016, he produced 2,321 yards and 19 touchdowns through the air and 1,065 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. The left-handed quarterback also played safety in high school. He originally committed to Minnesota before flipping to Virginia. Armstrong was a captain for Virginia in 2020 and 2021. He has a younger brother (Camden).

2021 Production: 11 games, 500 attempts, 326 completions, 4,449 yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions + 98 carries, 251 yards, 9 touchdowns

2020 Production: 9 games, 268 attempts, 157 completions, 2,117 yards, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions + 126 carries, 552 yards, 5 touchdowns

2019 Production: 7 games, 20 attempts, 15 completions, 196 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions

2018 Production: 4 games, 5 attempts, 2 completions, 62 yards, 1 touchdown + 9 carries, 74 yards (Redshirt Year)

Injuries & Off-Field: Missed one game with an injury (2020), missed one game with a rib injury (2021)

Awards: 2021 Third-Team All-ACC

Pros: Has the mobility to roll out, extend plays, and create modest gains with his legs, willing to take and play through contact as a runner, drives the ball with good velocity on short to intermediate throws, fit the ball through some very small windows, puts excellent touch on deep throws, drops it in the bucket downfield, tosses with anticipation on intermediate throws over the middle of the field, touchdown pass that traveled 45 air yards against William & Mary, terrific at finding his receivers in the corner of the end zone, rarely misses open targets, flashes of going through all of his progressions and working back to the checkdown, flashes of high-end accuracy at all three levels

Cons: Nine fumbles in 2021, left-handed passer could require some adjustments to offenses, lower body mechanics need significant adjusting, footwork hinders his accuracy, throws off his back foot too often, throwing motion has a windup, accuracy on the run is inconsistent, several misfires on short throws, decision-making sometimes leads to challenging double coverage, arm talent is modest by NFL standards, unsure if he’ll be able to make all of the throws in the pros, doesn’t consistently go through his progressions, gets tunnel vision on some receivers, occasional overthrows on long passes, his play style will be very hit or miss week-to-week in the NFL

Overview: Armstrong is unofficially listed at 6'2", 212 lbs. The All-ACC quarterback plays in one of the most prolific passing offenses in the country, which includes three wide receivers who could hear their names called in the 2023 NFL Draft. Armstrong spreads the ball around, making it impossible for defenses to completely neutralize Virginia’s air attack. The Ohio native doesn’t have an elite arm, but he’s learned to use it effectively. He has great touch on deep throws, places the ball with anticipation on routes over the middle of the field, and drives the ball into small windows at the short and intermediate levels. Armstrong also has the mobility to break the pocket and create off script. However, he shows a serious lack of development in his lower body mechanics, which hinders his accuracy and throw power. Armstrong suffers from occasional inaccurate throws, usually in the form of overthrows downfield or underthrows on short passes. He plays with fire as a decision-maker, challenging strong coverages in an attempt to make big plays.

Overall, Armstrong has a modest frame and arm by NFL standards. His statistical production was buffed by Virginia’s offense, but he made some “jump out of your seat” throws. Unfortunately, those flashes aren’t enough to overcome some serious concerns about his lower body mechanics and decision-making. Right now, Armstrong projects as an early Day 3 selection.

Role & Scheme Fit: Spread offense with a vertical passing attack scheme

Round Projection: Mid Fourth to Early Fifth

Player Comparison: N/A

Submitted: 08-05-22