2023 NFL Draft: October Mock Draft
I put together a draft order using reserve Super Bowl adds and filled out my first mock draft of the season for the 2023 NFL Draft
We’re still very early in the evaluation process for the 2023 NFL Draft. There are plenty of college games left, the All-Star circuit, and the NFL Combine, and we haven’t determined the draft order yet. However, I miss writing mock drafts. Starting this month, I’ll produce a first round mock draft and big board at least once every month until the draft.
Please note that this isn’t a predictive mock draft. It’s freaking October. This is me throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks. All mock drafts are simply possible outcomes we produce for our own amusement. They don’t have to be accurate or even make sense at times. I already know a few things I included in this mock draft are unlikely.
For instance, this mock draft includes five quarterbacks, and Hendon Hooker isn’t one of them. Bijan Robinson also fails to make an appearance. I wouldn’t bet on either of those situations unfolding in the actual draft, but I think they’re worth considering.
All of that said, I present to you an exact copy of how the NFL Draft will play out in April.
*Draft order built using reverse BetMGM Super Bowl odds from Oct. 12
Please leave your complaints in the comment section or send them to my Twitter account @Sam_Teets33.
31. Buffalo Bills: O'Cyrus Torrence, IOL Florida
Three interior offensive linemen currently have slim chances of going in the first round. Minnesota center John Michael Schmitz and USC guard Andrew Vorhees were the runners-ups to Torrence for this pick. Vorhees was the consensus top guard entering the year, but he failed to stand out early in the 2022 season.
Meanwhile, Torrence transferred from Louisiana to the SEC and is still dominating opponents. He’ll help Buffalo’s questionable interior offensive line reset the line of scrimmage on run plays and finally provide some stability along the interior.
30. Kansas City Chiefs: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE Notre Dame
Frank Clark hasn’t been an awful free agent signing for the Chiefs, but he’s failed to match the production and impact he had on his rookie contract with Seattle. Kansas City could save close to $21 million by cutting Clark after this season. That would leave a hole along the defensive line across from George Karlaftis.
Foskey isn’t the bendiest of athletes off the edge, but he’s taken significant strides as a pass rusher over the last year. I wouldn’t be shocked if Foskey fell out of the first round, but he still offers plenty of value this far down the board.
29. Philadelphia Eagles: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State
Less than 12 months ago, Verse was wrapping up his season at Albany. Now, he leads the Seminoles in tackles for loss and sacks. The transfer has quickly shot up draft boards despite battling an injury he suffered earlier this season. Verse still has room to improve as a run defender, but his pass rush traits are first round-caliber.
The Eagles take pride in having one of the NFL’s best defensive lines each year. With Brandon Graham in the final year of his contract and set to turn 35 in the spring, Philadelphia could look for some young blood at defensive end.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Alabama
The Buccaneers are such a hard team to draft for, considering Tom Brady’s situation. The 45-year-old is a free agent after this season and might retire again. If he’s out of the picture, Tampa Bay can’t waste a premium asset on a luxury running back pick. However, it’s not like there are many qualified quarterback options this far down the board anyway.
Gibbs is a dynamic running back in the Alvin Kamara mold. He could step into Tampa Bay’s locker room and immediately replace the team’s mediocre options.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Henry To'oTo'o, LB Alabama
Patrick Queen has flashes that remind you why he was a first round pick in 2020, but the 23-year-old LSU product has largely disappointed the Ravens two and a third seasons into his career. Picking To'oTo'o opens the door to Baltimore potentially trading Queen for draft assets, but the Ravens could also keep both young linebackers around as they discover To'oTo'o’s ceiling.
To'oTo'o doesn’t have the size to be a thumping interior linebacker, but his agility and ability to fit gaps should cover for his lack of bulk. Coverage was a serious issue for To'oTo'o in past years, but he’s performed much better in that area to start the 2022 season.
26. Green Bay Packers: Darnell Washington, TE Georgia
This should be the year the Packers take a wide receiver in the first round, but there aren’t any worth taking at this point. I suppose you could make arguments for Kayshon Boutte based on perceived potential or Josh Downs considering his phenomenal 2021 season. Quentin Johnston and Cedric Tillman are also on the board but are limited as vertical threats because of speed and separation concerns.
Washington is an elite blocking tight end with untapped potential as a pass catcher. At 6'7", 270 lbs., the behemoth has the athleticism to hurdle defenders and the power to run them over.
25. Miami Dolphins (Via 49ers): Christian Gonzalez, CB Oregon
Miami’s secondary looked like one of the best in the NFL several years ago. However, injuries to Byron Jones have pushed Nik Needham into the starting lineup, and Xavien Howard isn’t playing anywhere close to his previous All-Pro level. Miami’s offense is finally getting things together, which means the Dolphins can’t afford to let their defense fall apart now.
I’m not sold on Gonzalez as a first round pick, but I thought he was a better option here than Emmanuel Forbes, Eli Ricks, or DJ Turner. Gonzalez is a freaky athlete who tops out at 23.3 miles per hour. He has flashes of being a sticky corner capable of mirroring receivers.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Brian Branch, DB Alabama
Branch plays the STAR role in Alabama’s defense, meaning he has experience in almost every role. The versatile 6'0", 193 lb. defensive back primarily lines up in the slot. Some people wonder if he’ll be able to continue playing in the slot at the NFL level.
Jourdan Lewis is Dallas’ primary slot defender this season. The Cowboys could save roughly five million dollars by releasing the former third round pick this offseason in favor of Branch. Even if the team doesn’t believe Branch can stick in the slot, starting safety Donovan Wilson is a pending free agent. Wilson spends a lot of time in the box with a few snaps in the slot mixed in. That’s a role Branch would fit well.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Michael Mayer, TE Notre Dame
The previous Vikings regime used a second round pick on Irv Smith Jr. in 2019, and the move hasn’t panned out. The Alabama product is in the final year of his rookie deal and shouldn’t return as a starter in 2023. That opens the door for Minnesota to add Mayer. The Vikings probably want to draft a receiver here, but there aren’t any first round receivers left.
Mayer isn’t the most dynamic athlete, but he’s a well-rounded player with good size. The junior is a steady tight end who will provide Kirk Cousins with a consistent target. The ceiling for Mayer is probably Zach Ertz, a potential 1,000-yard player in an offense where he takes the target share of a wide receiver. It’s more likely that Mayer stays closer to the 800-yard mark annually.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Clark Phillips III, CB Utah
Phillips has five interceptions and two defensive touchdowns in his past three games. So why aren’t more people buying into him being a first round pick? Unfortunately, the Utah product is only 5'10", 183 lbs., about the same size as Asante Samuel Jr. Not many corners that size can survive on the outside (although Samuel has put together a decent start to his career).
Adding another small corner to the secondary might seem like a big risk for Los Angeles. However, it’s not that big of a deal since the Chargers will ask Phillips to transition to the slot. He’ll take over for veteran and pending free agent Bryce Callahan (who’s only 5'9", 183 lbs.). Teams scoffed at drafting slot players in the first round in the past, but the best slot defenders all play more than 800 snaps per year. They’re worth the investment, especially as sub-package defenses become the norm.
21. Detroit Lions (Via Rams): Jaren Hall, QB BYU
Let chaos reign. The Lions have a passionate coaching staff and a relatively young roster with developing cornerstones. They need a quarterback. There are only so many losing seasons head coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes can have before their seats start heating up. Next year will be their third season in Detroit, and they need at least to show they’ve made progress toward finding their quarterback of the future.
Hall is a dynamic player who extends plays and creates with his legs. The ball comes out of his hands with good zip. He has the touch to drop deep throws in the bucket and the arm talent to whip throws to the sideline with excellent velocity.
20. Cincinnati Bengals: Devon Witherspoon, CB Illinois
Some teams might only view Witherspoon as a slot option, and the Bengals don’t need that considering they already have Mike Hilton. However, I think Witherspoon has the athletic ability and feistiness to play on the outside. The Bengals have an underrated defense, but they need to replace Eli Apple as a starting corner as soon as possible.
Witherspoon came out firing this year. He’s one of the nation’s top cornerbacks. The former three-sport high school athlete has excellent agility and speed, and he never shies away from getting physical with wide receivers.
19. Indianapolis Colts: Cameron Ward, QB Washington State
It’s safe to say the year-by-year approach Indianapolis has adopted at quarterback since Andrew Luck retired has failed. Philip Rivers was pretty good in 2020 despite being almost 40 years old, but Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan were awful additions. Head coach Frank Reich and general manager Chris Ballard should count themselves lucky if they’re retained for 2023.
Ward is far from a finished product and would heavily benefit from another year in college. However, he has jump-off-your-coach exciting arm talent. Ward connects on passes 60 yards downfield, throws from a variety of crazy arm slots, and has one of the quickest releases when under pressure that I’ve ever seen. He’s a special talent, but I don’t know if he’ll be ready to carry an NFL franchise in 2023.
18. Tennessee Titans: Joey Porter Jr., CB Penn State
The Titans keep taking bites out of the apple at cornerback. Unfortunately, they don’t have many available options at other positions of need. Will Levis is off the board at this point, and the top of the wide receiver class is long gone. Even most of the useful offensive linemen are off the board.
Drafting Porter lets Tennessee add the Penn State standout to a young secondary already featuring cornerbacks/slot defenders Caleb Farley, Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary, and Elijah Molden. Porter is a true outside corner with excellent size (6'2", 198 lbs.) and arm length. He’s allowed under 100 receiving yards this season and has only committed one penalty (an issue that plagued him in previous years).
17. Houston Texans (Via Browns): Will Levis, QB Kentucky
The Texans had their time to experiment with Davis Mills, but the light isn’t coming on for the Stanford product. He’s an intriguing backup to keep around and continue developing, but that’s about it. Houston needs to get their quarterback of the future, and they’re lucky that Levis is still on the board.
Houston might need to take Levis in the top ten, depending on how the season and pre-draft process play out. Right now, I don’t view the Kentucky product as worth that kind of investment, but it’s easy to see why some evaluators might. Levis is 6'3", 232 lbs. with a rocket arm and good mobility. He fits the general “Josh Allen prospect” developmental mold.
16. Seattle Seahawks (Via Broncos): Tyree Wilson, EDGE Texas Tech
Wilson is one of the freakiest players in this entire draft class. His arm length and wingspan will measure near the 99th percentile when he goes to the NFL Combine. He has physical tools for days, and he’s put them to good use this season. Wilson is only six pressures and one sack away from matching his career highs from 2021 despite playing roughly 200 fewer pass rushing snaps.
The Seahawks have expressed interest in adding a pass rusher dating back to when they took L.J. Collier in the first round. The team recently invested a two-year deal in Uchenna Nwosu, a 2020 second round pick in Darrell Taylor, and a 2022 second round pick in Minnesota’s Boye Mafe. None of those additions should prevent them from drafting Wilson.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars: Paris Johnson Jr., OT Ohio State
Johnson plays left tackle for the Buckeyes, but Jacksonville could ask him to shift to the right side and replace soon-to-be free agent Jawaan Taylor. Johnson has experience as a guard, so he could always kick inside and replace Ben Bartch/Tyler Shatley if playing tackle doesn’t work out.
I haven’t written my full report on Johnson yet, but in my limited exposure, he appeared stiffer and less nimble than I anticipated. There’s still a decent chance he doesn’t crack the first round, but enough teams are desperate for tackle help that I could see him naturally rising on draft night.
14. New England Patriots: Trenton Simpson, LB Clemson
The Patriots have a unique combination of linebackers, but they’ve struggled to find a true star at the position since Dont'a Hightower’s peak in the mid-2010s. Linebacker isn’t the most valuable position by modern standards, but the Patriots are one of a few organizations willing to buck trends to target players they like regardless of positional value.
Simpson is a versatile linebacker who has excellent speed and agility and excels in coverage. He can match up with tight ends and occasionally handle slot duties depending on the matchup. When allowed the blitz, Simpson can get home quickly. At 6'3", 240 lbs., he also has some ability to hold up and control space against the run.
13. Philadelphia Eagles (Via Saints): Cam Smith, CB South Carolina
Eagles fans want a defensive end and cornerback with their first round picks, and I’m a man of the people. Smith entered the season with a lot of hype. He hasn’t risen to the occasion, but he’s still playing at a high level. In five games, he’s allowed under 40 receiving yards. Unfortunately, four penalties spoil that statistic a little.
James Bradberry has been excellent for the Eagles this season, but he’s only playing on a one-year deal. It will cost the Eagles a pretty penny to retain the veteran, or they could opt to let Bradberry walk and take a highly-ranked rookie like Smith.
12. Las Vegas Raiders: Myles Murphy, EDGE Clemson
Raiders fans might get flashbacks to taking Clelin Ferrell in the first round and the nightmare that unfolded from there. I promise, Murphy isn’t the same player. The 6'5", 275 lb. defensive end is a powerful rusher with elite closing burst for a player his size. Murphy is still a little raw as a pass rusher, but we’ve seen him develop a pass rush toolbox over the past two years.
Las Vegas threw a lot of money at Chandler Jones this past offseason, but he’s struggled. After an up-and-down 2021 campaign where he showed some signs of decline, Jones is only applying pressure on roughly 6.98% of his pass rush attempts despite working across from Maxx Crosby. For reference, a decent edge rusher applies pressure on at least 10.0% of his attempts, an above-average player reaches 15.0%, and anything over 18.0% is elite. It might already be time to consider planning for life after Jones.
11. New York Giants: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Ohio State
No offense to Richie James and David Sills, but the Giants might be the only franchise where either of those players could see significant snaps in 2022. New York is desperate for help at wide receiver. Kenny Golladay has either given up or been abandoned. Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard can’t stay healthy. Darius Slayton has been marginalized, and Wan'Dale Robinson can’t get on the field because of injuries.
I don’t think the Giants have their quarterback of the future on their roster. They need to finish building their basic infrastructure before throwing another 20-year-old to the wolves. While Smith-Njigba hasn’t played much this year because of injuries, he’s one of the best true route runners in this class who creates separation with savvy and technical skill.
10. Arizona Cardinals: Kelee Ringo, CB Georgia
Arizona has one of the least talented cornerback rooms in the NFL. Teams are shelling out record-setting contracts for shutdown corners, and the Cardinals are rolling with Marco Wilson and Byron Murphy Jr. on the outside. I don’t mind Murphy playing in the slot and occasionally stepping outside, but he shouldn’t be out there full-time.
Ringo is the default top cornerback in this mock, but I wouldn’t rule out two or three players jumping him before the end of the year. This cornerback class features plenty of talent, but very few players have flashed this season. Ringo’s traits and athletic tools pave the way for him to claim this spot.
9. New York Jets: Jaelyn Duncan, OT Maryland
Duncan is a very up-and-down tackle who struggles with consistency. Michigan lit him up earlier this year, and I’m starting to back off of him as a top-20 player in this draft class. However, it’s easy to fall in love with Duncan’s physical tools and movement skills. Keep in mind, he’s 6'6", 320 lbs.
The Jets desperately need some stability at tackle. Mekhi Becton has struggled with health and weight concerns, while George Fant opened the season on a shaky note before suffering his own injury woes. Even Duane Brown has missed time this year with injuries.
8. Detroit Lions: Bryan Bresee, IDL Clemson
The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in football and addressed their defensive end position last spring by drafting Aidan Hutchinson and Joshua Paschal. Now it’s time to fix the interior of the defensive line by adding an explosive player capable of contributing at a high level as a pass rusher.
Injuries and missed time are a constant concern for Bresee, but he’s dominated when healthy over the past two and a half years. From his position on the defensive interior, Bresee applies pressure on over ten percent of his pass rushing snaps and has improved his effectiveness as a penetration-style run defender.
7. Atlanta Falcons: Peter Skoronski, OT Northwestern
The Falcons have a long way to go before they’re playoff contenders again. We don’t know if they have anything in Desmond Ridder yet, but even if they don’t, there’s not a quarterback left that I would take at seventh overall. The trenches have been an issue on both sides of the ball for a while now. The Falcons should build up their offensive line before putting a young quarterback in jeopardy.
Skoronski has a few paths to the field in Atlanta. He could replace embattled right tackle Kaleb McGary. There’s some concern that Skoronski won’t meet the arm measurement thresholds teams have for tackles. If that’s the case, he could take over for Elijah Wilkinson at left guard. There’s also a path for the Northwestern product beginning his career at guard and then shifting to left tackle in 2024 when Atlanta could save roughly $29.5 million by cutting Jake Matthews.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers: Broderick Jones, OT Georgia
The Steelers are trapped. Outside the top five picks, there’s an overwhelming supply of mediocrity and prospects with asterisks next to their names. Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy might be the most talented players left on the board, but they don’t fit Pittsburgh’s largest needs. The cornerback class is uninspiring. Peter Skoronski is the most complete offensive lineman available, but he might only have guard-sized arms. The Steelers need a true tackle.
Picking Jones to replace Dan Moore Jr. absolutely counts as forcing a tackle to Pittsburgh on my part, but there’s no easy answer for the Steelers at this spot. Ideally, they trade back and still land someone like Jordan Addison, Jaelyn Duncan, Joey Porter Jr., or Kelee Ringo.
5. Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter, IDL Georgia
Seattle crushed the 2022 NFL Draft, adding bookend offensive tackles, two corners who are already contributing, and Kenneth Walker III. With the offensive line trending in the right direction, it’s time to strengthen the other side of the trenches.
The Seahawks could opt for Will Levis in this situation, but that would be an egregious reach. Instead, Seattle settled for one of this year’s blue chip players. Carter is a powerful, explosive 6'3", 300 lb. defensive tackle who will be more productive as a pro than he is in college. Scheme considerations could cause Seattle to lean away from Carter at this spot, but he’s easily the best talent on the board.
4. Washington Commanders: Bryce Young, QB Alabama
Oh boy. Washington’s franchise has plenty of issues that extend beyond the football field, but there’s only so much we can fix in this type of article. All Carson Wentz experiments (for any team) should come to an abrupt end. He’s just a shell of what he was early in his career with the Eagles, and I’m not betting on Sam Howell being any better.
Young comes with several question marks. A player his size (listed at 6'0", 194 lbs. but probably smaller) will always carry concerns about health and arm talent. Young is a gamer who comes through in the clutch and uses his mobility to extend plays. However, he could realistically fall outside the top ten.
3. Houston Texans: Jordan Addison, WR USC
The Texans spent some time addressing their defense and rebuilding their offensive line in this past draft cycle. They also added John Metchie III, but he hasn’t played this season because of medical issues. Adding Addison to that room gives Houston’s quarterback of the future (Will Levis, in this case) four viable wide receivers.
Houston’s remade wide receiver room includes several young options in Addison, Nico Collins, and Metchie and proven veteran Brandin Cooks. That’s not an award-winning wide receiver room, but it’s at least league-average. In time, it could be above-average depending on Addison’s development.
2. Chicago Bears: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE Alabama
Not giving Chicago Jordan Addison will probably ruffle some feathers. He’s not a player I generally associate with being worth a top-five selection, but this is a weird and thin draft class at the top. Chicago needs weapons for Justin Fields to throw to, but the Bears haven’t shown any interest in taking that route. With Anderson squarely in their sights as Robert Quinn bombs out, I think the Bears take the pass rusher.
Anderson got off to a slower start in 2022 than in 2021, but he corrected any issues with a ten-pressure game against Texas A&M. There’s still lots of room for technical development, but Anderson already had pro-ready physical tools going into his sophomore season.
1. Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud, QB Ohio State
The Panthers are an absolute train wreck of a franchise. This pick could change depending on if the team decides to hold a fire sale ahead of the trade deadline, but the organization currently has enough offensive infrastructure to justify drafting a quarterback. It’s time to leave Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and P.J. Walker in the past.
Stroud is far from a perfect prospect. His lower body mechanics and post-snap reads are still developing. However, he has the prototypical size and arm strength teams look for in quarterbacks, and we can track his continuous development since the start of last season.
Best Available
Hendon Hooker, QB Tennessee
Blake Corum, RB Michigan
Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
Kayshon Boutte, WR LSU
Josh Downs, WR North Carolina
Quentin Johnston, WR TCU
Cedric Tillman, WR Tennessee
John Michael Schmitz, IOL Minnesota
Andrew Vorhees, IOL USC
Gervon Dexter, IDL Florida
Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE Kansas State
Derick Hall, EDGE Auburn
BJ Ojulari, EDGE LSU
Nolan Smith, EDGE Georgia
Jack Campbell, LB Iowa
Eli Ricks, CB Alabama
Jordan Battle, S Alabama
Antonio Johnson, S/CB Texas A&M
Christopher Smith, S Georgia